Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS La Crosse, WI

926 
WWUS53 KARX 010034
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
734 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNC157-010115-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-240801T0115Z/
Wabasha MN-
734 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN WABASHA COUNTY...

At 734 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of
Mazeppa, or 15 miles north of Rochester, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Mazeppa, Bremen, Zumbro Falls, Millville, Bellechester, Hammond,
Jarrett, Rattelsnake Point, Oak Center, Bluff Valley Campground, Bear
Valley, County Roads 31 And 2, and South Troy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4437 9254 4437 9243 4438 9243 4438 9234
      4420 9224 4420 9255 4427 9255
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 315DEG 20KT 4424 9240 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Skow

739 
WWUS53 KARX 010047
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
747 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

MNC157-010115-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-240801T0115Z/
Wabasha MN-
747 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN WABASHA COUNTY...

At 747 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Elgin, or 14
miles northeast of Rochester, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Bremen, Zumbro Falls, Millville, Hammond, Jarrett, Oak Center, Bluff
Valley Campground, Bear Valley, and County Roads 31 And 2.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4437 9248 4437 9243 4438 9243 4438 9234
      4420 9224 4422 9250
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 315DEG 20KT 4419 9233 

HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Skow

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
652 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storm threat tonight with some lingering
  storms on Thursday.

- Continued warm into the weekend but some signal for drier and
  cooler weather later next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

TONIGHT and THURSDAY:

Focus going into the evening is convective storm threat, including
location, timing, and intensity for our area. Still lots of details
to work out. Per usual, convective allowing models are all over the
place and struggling catching up with reality this afternoon.

Tracking mid level trough across the Dakotas with several short
waves steering main convective threats. Northern wave is leading to
convection across western Minnesota but short term guidance still
suggests this will take a turn to the southeast tonight, riding the
700 mb cap and better CAPE gradient. Unsure if this will happen as
storms may stay ahead of this feature, albeit elevated in nature.
Meanwhile another feature is lifting out of eastern Nebraska that
may be bigger player as associated front edges into higher MUCAPE
axis from eastern Nebraska northward along SD-MN border. Shear
values are also higher closer to the wave with far shorter and
chaotic hodographs the further east you go. Again, warm mid level
temperatures may be limiting convection initially but still
expecting it to fill in as afternoon goes on.

While it makes sense that storms would erupt this afternoon along
associated front and mainly track west and south of us, am a little
concerned about convection across northern areas and how that may
play into this. In any event, could be looking at a strong to severe
storm risk further north and east, and perhaps earlier, than expected,
especially if a well developed cold pool can form. Damaging
wind continues to be main threat with bowing segments.

Wave from overnight will still be lingering across Wisconsin on
Thursday, which will likely force additional showers and storms,
especially ahead of it. Higher CAPE values will be shunted off to
the southeast taking higher risk of any severe storms with it.
But could still see enough low level instability and favorable
vorticity fields for non supercell landspout set up if strong
enough storm can form under passing low.

FRIDAY into NEXT WEEK:

Mean upper ridge placement remains fairly consistent across the
western CONUS at least into early next week before we see more
height falls across the Upper Midwest next week. This keeps the
western Great Lakes along the edge of the cap /warmer air to the
southwest/ and perhaps along a frontal boundary.

Difficult to put any detail into timing and location this far in
advance, but any short waves traveling through this stronger mid
level flow on northeast edge of ridge could lead to a more organized
convective risk for us.

Medium range guidance diverges later in the forecast period, but one
consistency is idea of a bit more amplification in flow pushing
cooler and drier into region from the northwest. This would
lead us into a drier and cooler regime. Certainly ensembles
suggest CAPE values among members are highest in short term with
no real signal for higher instability later in forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 653 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

A challenging convective forecast heading into tonight. Pop up
showers and storms currently south of the Twin Cities are on a
trajectory toward RST and LSE through the next couple hours, but
unsure if this cluster will maintain its intensity as it
approaches. Otherwise the main round of more widespread storms
associated with a shortwave out to our west is expected to sweep
eastward into the TAF sites overnight between approximately
06-10Z. This round of storms will be on a weakening trend as it
moves east overnight. Thereafter, a lingering 30 to 40% chance
for showers and thunderstorms through Thursday morning with the
shortwave overhead, increasing to a 70% chance in the afternoon
with increasing daytime instability. Tried to tie TS mention in
the TAFs to the most likely timeframes.

Other aviation concern will be potential for MVFR ceilings
Thursday morning. RST would have a higher likelihood of going
MVFR, but can't rule out the possibility at LSE for a short
time.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Shea
AVIATION...Kurz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
319 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-011000-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
319 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms tonight. A few could be strong to severe, mostly
this evening and west of the Mississippi river. Damaging winds
are the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Storm chances persist Thursday. Organized severe weather is not
expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Rainfall or severe reports are appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Rieck