Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Gaylord, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
322 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for additional showers/ storms later this evening into tonight.

- Cooler temps return Wednesday, rain chances at times through
  the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

A ridge of high pressure will continue to slide eastward across
the forecast area through the period. A cold front will drift
through this evening posing the possibility of another round of
showers/storms. However, with the line that passed through the
area earlier this afternoon, this will make it harder to
initiate something later this evening. Any storms that do
develop will have similar threats (damaging winds and heavy
rainfall) as previous systems today. We will continue to
interrogate these mesoscale details of this complex forecast and
provide updates as necessary.

Some relief will be had Wednesday with temperatures decreasing
in response to the aforementioned systems moving through.
However, dewpoint values will still be higher, so it will feel
cooler, but it will not be a substantial cool down just yet.
Several shortwaves are also expected to track through the area
on Wednesday providing a rainy day with overcast skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Cooler and less humid conditions move in Wednesday night as the
upper level flow flattens out behind the departing cold front
and associated height falls. This will be followed by the
temporary rebuilding of warmer temperatures and higher humidity
levels Thursday night into Friday as a short wave ridge gets
thrown up out ahead of a stronger trough digging in for the
weekend from the northwest. With an increasingly moist southerly
flow, showers and embedded thunderstorms are likely late
Thursday night into Friday. Heavy downpours are possible as
precipitable water values spike up toward 2 inches once again.
Noticeably cooler temperatures and much lower humidity levels
move in as we head into the Labor Day weekend (especially during
the second half). Could even see a few rain showers late
Saturday night into Sunday with the arrival of the coolest air
aloft. The cooler trend is expected to continue into early next
week. In the meantime, warmer Thursday with highs ranging from
the mid 70s to around 80. Another humid night Thursday night
with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Highs Friday and Saturday
in the mid 70s to low 80s. Lows in the mid and upper 50s. Highs
only ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s for Sunday through
Tuesday with lows in the comfy 40s to low 50s (likely even a few
upper 30s in the colder spots Monday night).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 137 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Ongoing storms are expected to track into the Lake MI coastline
towards KMBL. Ahead of these storms, westerly winds have
increased with gusts to 15 kts for some across northern lower
with higher winds expected for KMBL as the line tracks through.
MVFR/IFR CIGs are expected to move into much of northern lower
this evening and tonight as another round of potential storms
work into the area. Southwest to west winds look to turn to
northwest winds later today/this evening as a cold front moves
across the region.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...NSC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
333 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-281945-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
333 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe storms are possible across northern Michigan
through tonight. The primary hazard is for damaging wind gusts.
The potential for a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are possible across parts of northern Michigan
Wednesday and late Thursday night into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through tonight.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-281945-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
333 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and late Thursday night into
Friday.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
955 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     Rain             2 NNE Otsego Lake State 44.96N 84.68W
08/27/2024  M1.08 Inch       Otsego             MI   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station MI-OT-17 Gaylord 4.1 S.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
300 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NE Cadillac           44.26N 85.40W
08/27/2024                   Wexford            MI   Public

            Half a tree down on a house.

&&

ELD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
326 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSW Cadillac          44.22N 85.44W
08/27/2024                   Wexford            MI   Emergency Mngr

            HWY 115 closed due to large trees over road.
            Widespread tree damage throughout Wexford
            county.

&&

ELD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
327 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0239 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 WSW Cadillac          44.22N 85.52W
08/27/2024                   Wexford            MI   Public

            HWY 55 closed briefly due to large trees
            down over roadways.

&&

ELD