Red Flag Warning 13, NWS Amarillo, TX

520 
WWUS84 KAMA 120750
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
250 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

OKZ001-TXZ001-122100-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0013.240412T1800Z-240413T0200Z/
Cimarron-Dallam-
250 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR FOR THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE...

* Affected Area...In Oklahoma...Cimarron. In Texas...Dallam.

* 20 Foot Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 9 percent.

* Red Flag Threat Index...3 to 5.

* Timing...1 PM TO 9 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures will
create favorable weather for rapid fire growth and spread. Avoid
activities that promote open flames and sparks.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
www.weather.gov/ama

134 
WWUS84 KAMA 121927
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
227 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

OKZ001-TXZ001-130200-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240413T0200Z/
Cimarron-Dallam-
227 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE WESTERN 
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE...

* Affected Area...In Oklahoma...Cimarron. In Texas...Dallam.

* 20 Foot Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 9 percent.

* Red Flag Threat Index...3 to 5.

* Timing...1 PM TO 9 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures will
create favorable weather for rapid fire growth and spread. Avoid
activities that promote open flames and sparks.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
www.weather.gov/ama

213 
WWUS84 KAMA 130131
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
831 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024


OKZ001-TXZ001-130245-
/O.EXP.KAMA.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240413T0200Z/
Cimarron-Dallam-
831 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE...

RFTI values have dropped to 0 or 1 as winds weaken and RH
increases going into the overnight thus Red Flag is allowed to
expire.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
www.weather.gov/ama

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1233 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Expect similar conditions today as Wednesday as abundant sunshine
occurs in the presence of modest northerly winds. In fact, despite
another day of sunshine, temperatures may not achieve what they did
Wednesday as winds will be a bit lighter compared to Wednesday given
the reduction in surface gradient.

Friday, much warmer conditions are favored as heights aloft build
and southerly surface winds resume in response to a weak lee surface
trough to our west. This will likely lead to low end critical fire
danger in the northwestern Panhandles, as described below.
Otherwise, no precipitation is expected.

Ferguson

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

A southwest flow aloft will encourage a lee-side surface trough to
meander back and forth across the Panhandles Saturday and Sunday.
Winds will tend to be lighter across the area with the surface trough
in the vicinity.  But winds may still be strong enough to warrant
elevated fire weather conditions since relative humidity values will
be so low.

On Monday an upper level low lifting northeast from the southwest
U.S. will provide enough lift to get thunderstorms going.  The
question will be: will the storms fire in our eastern counties or
will they develop over in western Oklahoma.  Again, the models do
not agree on the track or the timing of the system lifting out of
the southwest. Therefore, the movement of the dryline is in
question.  One thing that is almost certain is that we will see
critical fire weather conditions to the west of the dryline as
southwesterly winds pick up into the 25 to 35 mph range with higher
gusts as the surface gradient tightens. Monday afternoon into Monday
evening the Pacific front catches up to the dryline.  As this
occurs, it could set off additional thunderstorms.  Again, the
question remains, will the dryline back up into the eastern
Panhandles, or will this collision happen just to our east.

The weather turns dry again Tuesday and Wednesday as the system
moves away from the Panhandles.

The warmest days are expected to be Saturday and Sunday with highs
getting to around 90 in some spots.  Highs will be slightly cooler
Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites over the next 24 hrs.
Winds will become more southeast-southwesterly throughout the
period. Mostly clear skies are expected.

Harrel

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Friday looks to feature a low end critical fire risk for the
northwestern Panhandles, which unfortunately missed out on our
recent rainfall. Lee surface trough looks to develop to our west as
westerly flow aloft over the Front Ranges occurs. Progged 700/850mb
winds are only around 25 knots, so am only expecting south-
southwesterly winds of 15 to 25 mph. That said, with an upper ridge
in place over the area, temperatures should rise into the 80s,
causing RH values to fall to around 10 percent in the northwest.
Thus, low end critical conditions are favored. Aggressive fire
behavior appears unlikely given the relatively weak winds and the
lack of a defined LLTR.

Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Saturday and
Sunday as 10 to 20 mph winds couple with lowest relative humidity
values below 10 percent.

Critical fire weather conditions will be possible on Monday.
Southwest winds are expected to be in the 25 to 35 mph range with
higher gusts and lowest relative humidity values are expected to be
around 10 percent.

Ferguson/15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                43  81  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  39  85  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              37  82  47  85 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  45  88  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              43  86  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  43  81  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               43  83  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 37  82  45  84 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  37  85  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                42  82  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                43  84  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   44  83  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                43  82  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              43  82  51  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for TXZ001.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for OKZ001.

&&

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...38

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
314 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-112100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
314 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Critical fire weather conditions are possible across the western
Oklahoma Panhandle and the far northwestern Texas Panhandle on
Friday due to breezy winds and low relative humidity.

Critical fire weather conditions may occur across the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles Monday.

Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the eastern
combined Panhandles. Some of the storms may be severe with large
hail and damaging winds the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated or critical fire weather conditions on Friday and Monday.