Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
536 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

Latest satellite and ground observations where showing a still
present boundary stalled over the south central Panhandles this
afternoon. This boundary will factor into the expect activity
today as it severs to be the starting point of development across
the central portions of the Panhandles late this afternoon and
early evening. Meanwhile in the northern portions of the
Panhandles, activity will more likely come from mountains to our
west later this evening as upper-level flow from the trough pushes
them into the area. In terms of severe potential, the better
ingredients look to be more settled in the northeastern Panhandles
where MLCAPE could reach above 3000 J/kg. However, latest model
soundings have begun to see a lack of shear across a majority of
the Panhandle that will inhibit storms from becoming organized
enough to take full advantage of the CAPE. Still, hail up to 1
inch can occur alongside 60 mph wind gusts, but the winds will be
the more likely threat. On the other side of this, a secondary
threat may present itself in the form of localized flooding. As it
stands, models are expecting PWAT values around 1.25 to 1.5 inches
alongside what could be very slow moving storm motions. This
combination of the could lead to localize areas receiving greater
than an inch of precipitation in a short amount of time with some
places up north maybe even seeing values closer to 2 inches.
Storms do look to die off as we head into the overnight hours.

However, another round of activity will look to follow for Friday
as the upper-level trough keeps the present 500mb high further
west for the day. In terms of severe, the potential is roughly the
same as today, albeit with latest CAMs suggesting slightly better
shear present. Regardless, this stretch of more active weather
will help give the Panhandle a slight cool off with many locations
finally ending their streak of triple digit weather. The only
exception to this may be our more terrain base locations like the
Palo Duro Canyon as the features could easily see the apparent
temperatures near advisory criteria.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

The axis of high pressure continues to progress westward and
expand across the CONUS through the extended. It's propagation
will allow for some northerly flow this weekend. By the start of
the new week, it's expansion will cause heights to rise over the
area. It won't be until perhaps Friday where we could see another
frontal boundary deliver some relief to the overall temperature
profiles; however, this would not be a drastic pattern change. The
current climate outlooks keep the combined Panhandles hot with
some above average precipitation chances if the system 7 days out
proves to verify and bring forth PoPs to much of the area. Only
time will tell, of course.

This weekend, winds behind the boundary will be light and
southeasterly. High temperatures are still forecast to decrease
slightly across the area, bringing temporary relief to the CWA
before the start of the new week. There is still a chance we could
reach 100 degrees here in Amarillo and surrounding areas
according to some mid range model guidance. However, forecasted
850 mb temperatures do not support triple digit temperatures to
generate at the surface. Therefore, surface temperatures have
been left unchanged from the NBM guidance. The only fix was to
the Palo Duro Canyon, since temperatures and heat indices are
expected to exceed 100 degrees due to the light southeasterly
winds and 60's dewpoints forecasted.

The return of hot >100 degree temperatures is anticipated by
Monday next week area wide. They are expected to remain in place
and even increase slightly towards the middle of the week. Many
places may be in contention for heat related products once again.
PoPs are absent from the forecast until next Friday.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

Thunderstorms are expected to affect DHT and GUY this evening.
Strong gusty winds will be possible with these storms. Storms
should fall apart shortly after midnight. Skies are expected to
remain VFR outside of thunderstorms. Winds are expected to be from
the north behind an outflow boundary from the storms moving across
the northern CWA overnight. Winds will then swing around to the
south and southeast Friday morning at 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                72  99  72  96 /  20  20  20  10
Beaver OK                  69  95  67  91 /  30  10  20  10
Boise City OK              65  94  66  93 /  40  30  20  10
Borger TX                  73 102  73  99 /  30  20  30  10
Boys Ranch TX              70 100  72  99 /  40  20  30  10
Canyon TX                  70  99  70  96 /  20  20  20  10
Clarendon TX               72  99  71  96 /  10  20  20  10
Dalhart TX                 66  96  67  96 /  40  20  20  10
Guymon OK                  67  95  67  92 /  40  20  30  10
Hereford TX                70 101  69  99 /  20  10  20  10
Lipscomb TX                72  97  69  93 /  30  20  20  10
Pampa TX                   70  98  69  93 /  20  20  30  10
Shamrock TX                73  99  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
Wellington TX              73 102  71  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ003>005-008>010-
     015-019-020.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ003.

&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
246 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-020800-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
246 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
and evening with best chances focused in the northern Panhandles.
Storms do have the potential to turn severe, with the main threat
being hail up to an inch in size and wind gusts of 60 mph.
Localized flooding may also be present with storms in the north as
well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Potential for more showers and thunderstorm Friday and Saturday
with isolated storms becoming strong to severe. Otherwise,
concerns will once again turn to heat for the start of next week
as multiple locations look to be in the triple digits.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

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