Wind Advisory 9, NWS Albany, NY

220 
WWUS71 KALY 131905
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
305 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

MAZ001-025-NYZ038>040-047>054-058>061-082-140400-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-240414T0400Z/
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern
Fulton-Montgomery-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern
Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern
Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Northern Fulton-
Including the cities of Jefferson Heights, Rotterdam, Duanesburg,
New Lebanon, Mechanicville, Mariaville, Florida, Hancock,
Stephentown, Catskill, Burnt Hills, Ilion, Dalton, Waterford,
Amsterdam, Herkimer, Johnstown, Ballston Spa, Clifton Park, Troy,
Sandisfield, Jefferson, Berlin, Hunter, Tannersville,
Middleburgh, Preston Hollow, Windham, Delanson, Caroga Lake,
Coxsackie, Frankfort, North Adams, Eagle Bridge, Cobleskill,
Berne, Livingstonville, Cairo, Great Barrington, Knox, Westerlo,
South Egremont, Albany, Pittsfield, Hudson, Altamont,
Prattsville, Gilboa, Breakabeen, Athens, Hoosick Falls, Mohawk,
Dolgeville, Gloversville, Schenectady, North Blenheim, and Little
Falls
305 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of western Massachusetts and eastern New York.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

Rathbun

648 
WWUS71 KALY 140422
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
1222 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

MAZ001-025-NYZ038>040-047>054-058>061-082-140530-
/O.EXP.KALY.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-240414T0400Z/
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern
Fulton-Montgomery-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern
Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern
Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Northern Fulton-
Including the cities of Frankfort, Ilion, Coxsackie, Duanesburg,
Hunter, Hoosick Falls, Waterford, Stephentown, Burnt Hills, Great
Barrington, Dolgeville, North Adams, New Lebanon, Windham,
Berlin, Livingstonville, Mohawk, Westerlo, South Egremont, Knox,
Jefferson, Herkimer, Sandisfield, Pittsfield, Albany,
Schenectady, Delanson, Altamont, Tannersville, Mariaville, Caroga
Lake, Ballston Spa, Cairo, Rotterdam, Breakabeen, Johnstown,
Troy, Clifton Park, North Blenheim, Eagle Bridge, Prattsville,
Catskill, Middleburgh, Jefferson Heights, Berne, Little Falls,
Preston Hollow, Gilboa, Hudson, Dalton, Cobleskill, Gloversville,
Florida, Athens, Amsterdam, Hancock, and Mechanicville
1222 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds will remain breezy overnight, but gusts are expected to remain 
below advisory criteria. Therefore, the wind advisory has been 
allowed to expire as scheduled.

$$

MEM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
140 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon showers and a few rumbles of thunder exit by
sunset with winds shifting to the southwest and remaining breezy.
Winds stay breezy overnight with much cooler air overspreading the
region in the wake of a cold front. Additional rain and even snow
showers for the higher terrain return tonight and continue into the
day tomorrow. We remain breezy and turn noticeably colder
tomorrow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.Update...As of 1:30 AM EDT...GOES 16 water vapor imagery shows
increasing mid and upper-level moisture moving into our region
from the west due to an upper low situated over upstate NY.
Accordingly, coverage of showers is increasing across the
Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, and northeastern Catskills. Cold
front is just now approaching our western CWA border, and should
track through the region during the remainder of the overnight
period. Winds begins to increase towards daybreak in the wake of
the front, and temperatures should drop into the 30s and 40s
for overnight lows. Some wet snow could mix in with any showers
later tonight across the high terrain of the ADKs and
Catskills, but any accumulation will be minor. Bumped up temps a
few degrees for the next couple hours ahead of the cold front,
but otherwise mainly just minor updates with this forecast
package...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
Trough axis and upper level closed low moves overhead after
Midnight ushering in a much cooler air mass and wrap around
precipitation thanks to moist, cyclonic flow. Winds shift from
the southwest to west overnight in the wake of the trough axis,
resulting in cold air advection. Temperatures trend into the 40s
in the valley with 30s in the higher terrain. Rain showers may
mix with or even turn to mainly wet snow showers in the higher
terrain of the southern Adirondacks as temperatures drop into
the low to mid 30s by the pre-dawn hours. Additional rain
amounts overnight are still expected to be much lower compared
to the daytime with just around or under 0.10" expected. With
breezy westerly winds continuing overnight and froude numbers
remaining under 1 suggesting blocked flow, some upslope showers
should lead to enhanced precip amounts on the west facing slopes
of the Taconics and southern Greens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
It will feel much cooler tomorrow as we remain under the
influence of the upper level closed low and moist, cyclonic
flow. Temperatures will struggle to rise out of the 40s thanks
to strong west to northwest winds gusting up to 30 - 40mph and
cloudy skies. Winds will be close to reaching wind advisory
criteria (46mph+) with the best chance in the higher terrain of
the eastern Catskills, Taconics, Berkshires, southern
Adirondacks and southern Greens where gusts up to 50mph are
forecast. However, the cloudy skies and limited boundary layer
mixing may impede the strongest winds from reaching the sfc over
a larger geographic area but will continue to monitor trends.
If confidence in wind gusts reaching or exceeding 46mph in a
larger area increases, we may need the issue a wind advisory.

Additional wrap around rain showers will continue through the
daytime with the froude number trending back up above 1 during
the morning, suggesting flow will no longer be blocked and
showers should track overtop the Taconics and southern Greens.
Valley areas should see less shower activity compared to the
western Mohawk Valley, southern/western Adirondacks, and eastern
Catskills as showers may downslope and dry up as they reach the
valley. Given chilly temperatures, the higher terrain areas of
the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens can continue to see
wet snow showers but accumulations look minimal, generally near
or under an inch. Froude number trend downwards during the
afternoon as winds shift to the northwest suggesting some
upslope enhancements may return to the west side of the
Taconics and southern Greens. Even still, overall QPF amounts
daytime Saturday should be highest in western New England and
the western/southern Adirondacks due to upslope enhancements
resulting in 0.15 - 0.30" (locally up to 0.50" at the crest of
the southern Greens) with under a tenth in the Hudson Valley.

Our upper level low and the associated moist, cyclonic flow
slowly exits Saturday night, ending our wrap around showers.
Clouds should give way to clearing as subsidence builds into the
Northeast which will help temperatures cool down even further
into the 30s. Northwest winds will remain breezy overnight
with gusts up to 30mph still possible through at least Midnight.
Winds should be on the downward trend thereafter as high
pressure from the mid- Atlantic builds into the area.

We start Sunday dry with even some early sun. However, a sfc
warm front will be pushing into the Northeast with a northern
stream shortwave tracking into northern New England. While
temperatures will be warmer than Saturday, highs will be
dependent on how far north the sfc warm front track. Should it
end up tracking further north, more of our region will enter the
associated warm sector and climb into the 60s (even mid-60s).
Areas that remain near or north of the boundary will end up
cooler in the 50s. Areas in the warm sector should have an
opportunity to destabilize with a notable low and mid-level jet
from the mid-Atlantic spreading into the region leading to
increased shear. Morning sun will fade behind increasing clouds
as the northern stream disturbance and cold front arrive during
the afternoon. Areas in the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT should
remain dry the longest and has the greatest potential to enter
into the warm sector which could be primed for some strong to
even severe weather. The incoming cold front sweeps through the
region Sunday afternoon into the evening and will likely lead
to areas of rain and potential thunderstorms, especially for
areas that can tap into the warm sector.

Showers associated with our cold front should end Sunday evening
with temperatures trending cooler overnight in its wake
dropping into the 40s to upper 30s. Some partial clearing will
also ensue.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
We finally get a break from the active weather pattern Monday
and Tuesday and should enjoy dry, spring-like weather. Our
upper level trough will be exiting the Northeast on Monday but
we remain under northwest flow as high pressure from the Great
Lakes builds eastward. Winds remain a bit breezy as the pressure
gradient stays tight resulting in dry and weak cool air
advection. Still expecting spring-like temperatures Monday
thanks to deeper boundary layer mixing so we bumped up highs
compared to the NBM guidance to show temperatures reaching into
the low 60s in the valley with mid to upper 50s in the higher
terrain. Any early clouds should break for increased sun as
well.

Tuesday will be the pick of the week as high pressure and upper
level ridging build overhead leading to plenty of sunshine and
very pleasant spring temperatures warming well into the 60s.
PWATS drop 0.50" under continued northwest flow and dry air
advection so we will have a dry air mass in place.

Chances for precipitation return Wednesday through Friday as
our next low pressure system tracks from the Midwest through the
Great Lakes. While there is decent forecast agreement that we
will have to monitor a southern stream shortwave and watch if it
phases with a northern stream trough in the Upper Great Plains,
there remain uncertainties on how exactly when, how or even if
this phasing occurs. This system may lead to another period of
widespread rain but again there remains uncertainty. We have
widespread chance POPs in the forecast Wed through Friday and
will continue to monitor trends over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Secondary cold front will move east across the TAF sites through
sunrise, with upper level trough then slowly passing eastward
through the day.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through sunrise with just
spotty showers/sprinkles expected. There could be occasional
MVFR Cigs at KPSF and other high terrain areas during this time.

After sunrise, KPSF and other high terrain areas should trend to
MVFR, mainly for Cigs, but possibly for Vsbys this afternoon as
rain showers become more numerous. Some snow may mix in this
afternoon at times as well. There is a slight chance for some
embedded IFR Cigs/Vsbys for higher terrain areas this afternoon.

For valley areas, including KGFL/KALB and KPOU, mainly VFR
Cigs/Vsbys are expected through this afternoon/evening, despite
some passing rain showers/sprinkles. There could be a few
periods of MVFR Cigs this afternoon, especially at KALB.

Any lingering MVFR Cigs should become VFR in valley areas after
sunset, with MVFR Cigs persisting at KPSF and high terrain
areas through around 05Z/Sun. Rain/snow showers across high
terrain areas should diminish toward 05Z/Sun.

Winds will be south to southwest at 5-10 KT with a few gusts of
15-20 KT through sunrise. Winds will then shift into the
southwest to west and increase to 8-15 KT by this afternoon,
with gusts of 25-35 KT possible, strongest at KALB and KPSF into
this evening.

Low level wind shear is possible through daybreak at KGFL as
surface winds occasionally drop below 5 KT, while winds around
2000 FT AGL increase from the southwest to 30-35 KT.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall over the past 24 hours has amounted to 1 to 2.50 inches
with multiple river rises noted on the Esopus, Schoharie,
Williams, and Housatonic river basins.. Daytime rainfall today
has overperformed and with rivers already elevated from rain
last night, some rivers will stay near bankfull through this
evening. Some forecast points may even see renewed river
flooding, especially on the Schoharie and Esopus Creek given
that the most rain has fallen in the eastern Catskills. The
warm, moist environment over the region today with high freezing
heights ~10kft has resulted in efficient warm rain process with
the unidirectional flow through the column and parallel to the
sfc boundary supporting training or heavy rain repeatedly
impacting an area.

Hourly rainfall amounts from the NYS mesonet have been rather
impressive reaching 0.25 - 0.50" in spots. Such heavy rainfall
rates and the slow nature of the rain has produce localized
urban and poor drainage flooding. Luckily, the heavy rain should
exit into New England and the North Country by sunset, ending
the urban/poor drainage flooding potential. Rivers will remain
elevated into this evening and we will continue to monitor river
rises/crest levels for any renewed flooding.

River observations and forecasts can be monitored using the
National Water Prediction Service located at water.noaa.gov.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Main/NAS/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...Frugis/Speciale

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
428 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-131200-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
428 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, east central New York, eastern New York and
southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

River rises will be monitored through tonight given additional heavy
rain that fell during the day Friday. Some renewed river flooding is
possible as rivers crest.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Westerly winds will be become gusty tomorrow, with some gusts up to
40 to 45 mph possible. Locally higher gusts up to 50mph are possible
in the higher terrain. This may result in some downed tree limbs. If
stronger winds look likely, a Wind Advisory would be needed for some
areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.