Tornado Warning 3, NWS Albany, NY

749 
WWUS51 KALY 102215
SVSALY

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
615 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

NYC043-102225-
/O.CAN.KALY.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-240710T2230Z/
Herkimer NY-
615 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been 
cancelled. However, damaging winds remain likely and a Severe 
Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the area.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for eastern New
York.

&&

LAT...LON 4359 7483 4354 7481 4345 7483 4343 7509
      4352 7510
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 252DEG 29KT 4351 7499 

$$

TWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
143 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather is expected across eastern New York and western New
England this afternoon through tonight, as the remnants of
Beryl move across the area. Showers and thunderstorms, some of
which could be severe, are expected, along with potential for
flash flooding and very warm temperatures. Chances of showers
and storms will persist into early next week, along with above
normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

**Severe thunderstorms possible late this afternoon and evening with
primary threats being damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes**

**Heat Advisory until 8 PM this evening for portions of the Capital
District, mid Hudson Valley and southern Taconics, and southern
Litchfield County**

**Flood Watch for flash flooding through noon Thursday for the
southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley through northern Lake
George area**

Discussion:

An active near term remains on track for eastern NY and western
New England as the remnants of Beryl track across Ontario and
northern Lake Ontario tonight. The first concern revolves around
our severe weather potential with a surface low and tandem warm
front & cold front tracking across the region. As laid out in
the previous discussion, a favorable air mass characterized by
around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear and
favorable 0-1 km shear and SRH will be in place in the warm
sector and vicinity of the warm front as it track across the
Mohawk Valley and southern ADKs. All of this will interact with
increasing convergence/lift with the surface low and cold front,
leading to increasing chances of showers/storms areawide
beginning by mid-afternoon. Some of these storms will have
potential to become severe, with the primary threats being
damaging wind gusts (given instability, favorable low-level
lapse rates and linear storm mode favorability) and isolated
tornadoes (especially near the warm front across the western
ADKs where convergence, SRH and hodographs curvature will be
maximized). While a lower threat, large hail will also be
possible with stronger updraft cores. The severe weather threat
will diminish this evening as we lose out on heating, though a
strengthening 40-50+ kt LLJ will keep shower/storm chances going
through early Thursday morning before it eventually tracks
further into western New England.

In addition to the threat of severe weather, showers and storms will
be capable of producing torrential rain thanks to higher efficiency
rainfall processes with Beryl. In addition, PWATs in the
1.75-2.50" range (around record for the day per ALB sounding
climo), warm cloud depths around 10-15kft and increasing warm
air/moisture advection with the LLJ will add to the potential.
Little has changed overall in regards to position of the highest
QPF with models remaining focused on areas along and north of
the warm front (generally around the central to southern ADKs).
Here, convergence will be maximized with higher potential for
training storms. WPC maintains a moderate risk of excessive
rainfall across the area, and a flash flood watch remains in
effect through Thursday morning. Please see the hydro discussion
below for additional details.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 800 PM mainly for the
Hudson Valley and portions of southern VT, where heat indices around
95-100 F will be possible. Temperatures will fall this evening with
lows ranging from the 60s (higher terrain) to 70s (valleys).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday & Thursday Night...

The remnants of Beryl will track across northern New England
into Quebec to start the period, with the mid and upper level
low & trough following close behind. CVA rotating around the low
will keep pockets of lift in place across the region, ensuring
shower and storm chances persist to close out the work week.
Areas mainly along and north of Interstate 90 are most favored
for POPs (20-40%) as they will be nearer to the low track,
though there will be slight chances across the mid Hudson Valley
near the aforementioned cold front as it stalls across near the
coast. However, it should be a dry & warm day for most as
afternoon highs climb back into 70s (terrain) and 80s (valleys).
Peak heat indices will not be far behind thanks to lower
humidity values.

Friday & Friday Night...

Two shortwaves remain on track to approach the region, one from the
central Great Lakes and the other along the Mid-Atlantic. These
features, combined with the stalled frontal boundary near the coast,
will promote diurnally driven showers and storms mainly across the
mid Hudson Valley and southwest New England. Elsewhere, it will be a
dry and warm end to the work week with highs ranging from the 70s
(terrain) to mid 80s (valleys).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The shortwave that will be approaching from the Great Lakes is
forecast to track across the region Saturday, and may promote
additional shower and storm chances during the afternoon and
evening. Guidance is not in great agreement of placement due to
differences in the speed and strength of the shortwave, so favoring
to use the NBM with this forecast package. This places higher
favorability of storm chances mainly across the mid Hudson Valley
and southwest New England. Elsewhere, conditions will be warm and
dry.

A hot and dry is favored for to close out the weekend with afternoon
highs climbing into the 80s (terrain) to low 90s (valleys).
Dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 will promote heat indices in
the mid 90s, so will need to watch this period for potential heat
headlines.

Additional shortwaves riding in the zonal flow remain on track to
impact the area early next week, which will bring showers and storms
back into the forecast. Each day will feature above normal temps
with valley highs well into the 80s to low 90s. With dewpoints in
the upper 60s to near 70, heat index values will be in the 90s each
day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Some isolated showers and storms around KGFL and KPOU, so
including VCSH there this afternoon. Organized band of scattered
showers and storms expected to track to the KALB, KGFL area
between about 22Z-04Z. Including PROB30 at KGFL and TEMPO at
KALB for IFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings in thunderstorms.
More isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for KPOU
and KPSF between about 00Z-06Z and just including PROB30 there
for IFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings.

Once the rain chances exit after 04Z-06Z, visibilities should
become VFR but ceilings stay MVFR through much of Thursday
morning. There could be some ceilings approaching IFR at KPSF
but ceilings will begin to rise toward VFR toward 18Z.

South winds at 10 to 15 Kt this afternoon with some gusts around
20 to 25 Kt. Winds diminish to around 10 Kt this evening and
less than 10 Kt by daybreak. Winds become southwest between
daybreak and midday Thursday at less than 10 Kt.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A warm front interacting with the remnant moisture from TC
Beryl today and tonight will bring potential areas of heavy
rainfall to eastern NY and western New England. The Weather
Prediction Center has highlighted much of our region in a threat
for excessive rainfall in the Marginal to Slight Risk
categories Wed and Thu, and moderate risk for the southern
Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley, and the Lake George Region.

The Mohawk Valley through the ADKs and upper Hudson Valley are
currently expected to see a widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain,
with some locally higher amounts of 4 to potentially 6 inches
possible. These higher end amounts would likely be very
localized to parts of the Adirondacks if/where multiple rounds
of heavy rain occur. Most of this rain will fall between noon
today and 2 AM Thursday morning. Rainfall rates may exceed 2
inches per hour where the heaviest rain falls.

A flood watch for flash flooding remains in effect for the
southern Adirondacks and northern Lake George Region, and has
also been expanded to include portions of the western Mohawk
Valley. Some river flooding may be possible as well depending on
if some of these higher amounts are realized, but the latest
MMEFS and NERFC guidance shows no main stem river flooding.

Confidence has increased in the timing and location of the
heaviest rainfall amounts, although a shift further northwards
with the heaviest rain from the current forecast still cannot be
ruled out. If this were to be the case, the heaviest rainfall
amounts would likely end up along or north of our county warning
area border with BTV.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ041-043-049-
     050-052-053-059-060-064>066-083-084.
     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for NYZ032-033-038>040-
     042-043-082-083.
MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ001.
VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ013-015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Speck
NEAR TERM...Speck
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...Main/Speck

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
130 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

CTZ013-MAZ001-NYZ059-060-064>066-VTZ013-015-110300-
Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Bennington-Eastern Windham-
130 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, east central New York and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Additionally, there is a marginal to slight risk for both severe
weather and excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding today and
tonight. The main impact hazards with any thunderstorms will be
damaging winds, but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. All
storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall that
could lead to ponding of water in urban and poor drainage areas, as
well as isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is also a chance for thunderstorms Friday night, Saturday,
Monday, and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ043-083-110300-
Northern Washington-Southeast Warren-
130 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
...TORNADO WATCH 517 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Flood Watch.
   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

There is also a chance for thunderstorms Friday night, Saturday,
Monday, and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ047-048-051-054-110300-
Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Western Albany-Eastern Rensselaer-
130 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...TORNADO WATCH 517 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is also a chance for thunderstorms Friday night, Saturday,
Monday, and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay wind damage reports to the
National Weather Service in Albany New York.

NYZ041-049-050-052-053-084-110300-
Northern Saratoga-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Southern Washington-
130 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 517 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is also a chance for thunderstorms Friday night, Saturday,
Monday, and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay wind damage reports to the
National Weather Service in Albany New York.

CTZ001-MAZ025-NYZ058-061-063-VTZ014-110300-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Berkshire-Western Greene-
Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Western Windham-
130 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, east central New York and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a marginal to slight risk for both severe weather and
excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding today and tonight. The
main impact hazards with any thunderstorms will be damaging winds,
but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. All storms will be
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall that could lead to
ponding of water in urban and poor drainage areas, as well
as isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is also a chance for thunderstorms Friday night, Saturday,
Monday, and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay wind damage reports to the
National Weather Service in Albany New York.

NYZ032-033-038>040-042-082-110300-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Northern Warren-Northern Fulton-
130 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
...TORNADO WATCH 517 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central New York and
eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

There is also a chance for thunderstorms Friday night, Saturday,
Monday, and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay wind damage reports to the
National Weather Service in Albany New York.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
416 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

NYZ032-033-102030-
Northern Herkimer NY-Hamilton NY-
416 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL HAMILTON AND
NORTHEASTERN HERKIMER COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

At 415 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Big Moose, or 10 miles north of Old Forge, moving northeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Big Moose, Russian Lake, Little Rapids, Beaver River, Partlow,
Keepawa, Brandreth, and Woods Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for eastern New
York.

&&

LAT...LON 4381 7504 4387 7506 4392 7502 4398 7483
      4395 7476 4388 7471 4378 7475 4377 7498
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 247DEG 30KT 4386 7495

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
520 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

NYZ032-033-102200-
Northern Herkimer NY-Hamilton NY-
520 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON AND
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

At 520 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 14 miles southwest of Star Lake to 12 miles
northwest of Old Forge to 7 miles east of Whetstone Gulf State Park.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Old Forge, Eagle Bay, Big Moose, Alger Island Public Campground,
Nehasane, Russian Lake, Little Rapids, Beaver River, Moshier Falls,
Thendara, Carter Station, Lyon Lake, Partlow, Robinwood, Keepawa,
Brandreth, Lake Lila, and Woods Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for eastern New
York.

&&

LAT...LON 4386 7469 4371 7486 4368 7512 4403 7516
      4408 7465
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 257DEG 28KT 4397 7515 4380 7519 4367 7533

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TWH