Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
407 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly sunny skies and feeling like summer this afternoon with isolated
to scattered showers and pulse thunderstorms this afternoon.
High pressure builds back into the region tonight through
Friday, giving us a warmer, mainly dry and more humid end to the
work. Conditions turn cloudy and remain muggy this weekend into
early next week as a slow moving disturbance approaches with
chances for rain increasing through the day Saturday before
higher chances for rain, potentially steady at times, arrive
Sunday through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

Latest regional radar mosaic shows that scattered showers and
pulse-type thunderstorms have developed across eastern NY and
western New England now that we have surpassed our convective
temperature with sfc temperatures in the low to mid-80s in the
valley this afternoon with mid to upper 70s in the higher
terrain. Dew points are also elevated in the 60s and given
mostly sunny skies, the SPC mesoscale analysis shows 1000 - 1500
J/kg mixed layer CAPE in place. Deep layer shear is also low at
just around 20kts which will limit organized convection/severe
thunderstorm potential. With relative low freezing heights and
wet- bulb zero heights around 10kft, small hail is the primary
hazard from thunderstorms where the updrafts can grow tall
enough.

A backdoor cold front progressing south and westward through
New Hampshire and eastern New England courtesy of our
disturbance spinning in the Canadian Maritimes have supported a
line of more robust convection that produced quarter sized hail
and gusty winds. Subsidence ahead of this incoming line may
explain why convection over eastern NY and western New England
has been more limited this afternoon compared to yesterday.
Another factor may be the slightly warmer 500hPa temperatures
compered to yesterday as well. Perhaps even the increased smoke
aloft thanks to northerly winds advecting smoke southward from
Canada. Either way, we maintain widespread slight chance and
chance POPs for pulse type isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms through sunset. The convection along the
approaching backdoor front looks to push into the Connecticut
River Valley by 21 - 23 UTC but since we will be past peak
heating by then, we maintained just high end chance POPs.

Convection should wane within a few hours after dark with loss
of diurnal heating. With skies clearing out overnight, patchy
fog is likely to occur again in favored sheltered valleys and
near bodies of water. Lows will range from the mid 50s in the
Adirondacks to lower 60s in the Hudson Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure building southward from southern Canada becomes
established across the Northeast tomorrow as upper level
ridging from western NY builds eastward. This will support
mainly dry conditions with morning sun once again mixing with
some fair weather cumulus. CAMs continue to suggest a few
isolated showers/storms may develop along the spine of the
southern Greens so included slight chance POPs but subsidence in
the wake of the exiting low in the Canadian Maritimes should
squash most convection. Otherwise, upper level flow becoming
southwesterly will help usher in a warmer air mass with 850hPa
isotherms reaching +14C to +15C. Forecast soundings support deep
boundary layer mixing as drier air rotating around the mid-level
ridge advects into the region. This should support sfc temperatures
to become very warm reaching into the upper 80s in the valley
with low to mid 80s in the hill towns and upper 70s in the
higher terrain. Dew points rise into the low to mid-60s making
it feel quite muggy/uncomfortable.

Initially clear skies Friday evening will trend cloudier overnight
thanks to increased southwesterly flow contributing to moisture
advection ahead of the slow approaching mature/closed low from
the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be milder compared to
previous nights thanks to increased cloud coverage with
overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. It will continue to feel
muggy as dew points remain elevated.

The associated warm front/triple point from the approaching low
will be slow moving and with sfc high pressure shifting into
the Canadian Maritimes, southeasterly sfc flow will become
established. This will keep skies cloudy and conditions muggy
with the pressure gradient between the offshore high and
incoming low tightening. This should support somewhat breezy
southeasterly sfc winds with gusts up to 20kts at times. Cloudy
skies and onshore flow will keep temperatures cooler with highs
only topping out in the mid to upper 70s as remain ahead of the
warm front. The incoming low remains slightly positively tilted
and the stronger height falls will slowly spread from west to
east through the day, initially reaching the southern
Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley before spreading towards the
Hudson Valley during the afternoon. Thus, we continue to show
chance POPs for areas of showers Saturday morning rising to
likely for the western/southern Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley
with chance POPs spreading into the Hudson Valley by the
afternoon. Areas in western New England should remain dry most
of the day as they likely remain displaced far enough east.
Given the cloudy skies most of the day, overall instability will
be limited despite the muggy conditions. Therefore, we only
show chance and slight chance for thunderstorms mainly west of
the Hudson River where lapse rates will be a little steeper
closer to the low. Areas to the east will be under more of the
stable/marine influenced air mass.

Cloudy skies continue Saturday night keeping conditions mild
and muggy with overnight lows only in the mid to upper 60s.
Areas of showers remain possible, especially west of the Hudson
River, as the warm front and the associated low and mid level
convergence approaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Continued chances for rain and some thunderstorms capable of
heavy downpours continues Sunday into Monday as our slow moving
upper level low gradually opens up as it progresses from the
Great Lakes into the Northeast. Southerly flow ahead of the
trough axis will support moisture advection with PWATs nearing
or even slightly exceeding 1.50". Mostly cloudy skies will
likely limit overall instability but elevated dew points in the
60s will likely support at least some instability. We therefore
continue to message slight chance to chances for thunderstorms
but likely to even categorical POPS (60 - 90%) for rain Sunday
through Monday. There is potential for heavy downpours and repeated
areas of heavy rain as deep southerly flow is maintained
through the column within the moisture rich environment ahead
of the approaching trough Sunday with the sfc cold front and
trough axis tracking through on Monday. WPC considered
introducing a slight risk in its Excessive Rainfall Outlook for
Sunday - Monday but given uncertainty on the exact placement of
any heavy rain plus antecedent dry conditions, we collaborated
to just maintain a marginal risk at this time. Should confidence
increase that heavy rain may result in flash flooding, we can
revisit the need to upgrade to a slight risk in WPC's ERO.

Guidance has trended to show drier conditions finally arriving
by Tuesday through Thursday as a large Canadian high pressure
from Canada builds southward, ushering in a drier and much
cooler air mass. Temperatures should actually run cooler than
normal for mid to late August standard with high temperatures
only rising into the 70s with overnight lows dropping into the
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18z Friday...All terminals currently seeing VFR conditions
with just a few mid and high clouds around. Mid-level clouds are
expected to increase in coverage over the next few hours, and
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop within the next hour or two and last through this evening.
Will mention VCSH groups at all TAF sites, but with more spotty
coverage of showers/storms than yesterday, do not have the
confidence to add tempo groups at this time even though
showers/storms could result in brief IFR vsby reductions if they
move over one of the terminals.

Showers dissipate after sunset and skies begin to clear, which
should allow for some fog to develop overnight tonight, especially
for any areas that see rain this afternoon and evening. Greatest
chance for IFR or lower vsbys/cigs is at GFL and PSF, but a few
hours of fog/mist and MVFR to IFR vsby reductions can't be ruled out
at ALB/POU either. Fog could be locally dense late tonight and very
early tomorrow morning. Fog should dissipate by 12-14z tomorrow
morning, with a return to VFR conditions and partly to mostly clear
skies through 18z.

Winds will be from the southwest at GFL and from the west/northwest
at ALB/POU/PSF through this evening. Winds become light and variable
after sunset and remain light and variable through at least 18z
tomorrow.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Main

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
409 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-161100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
409 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, eastern New York and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a chance of afternoon thunderstorms Saturday, Sunday, and
Monday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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