Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
338 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will move across the
Mohawk Valley, upper Hudson Valley, and southern Adirondacks this
afternoon and early evening. A cold front will bring additional
scattered thunderstorms Wednesday along with continued warm and
humid conditions. Cooler and much less humid conditions along with
fair weather will follow in the wake of the front for Thursday into
Friday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is progressing eastward
across Upstate New York. SPC mesoanalysis indicates 1500-2000
J/kg MLCAPE is in place ahead of the convection. WoFS guidance
has this line persisting as it moves east with a medium to high
chance of producing wind damage reports through 6 PM. Timing of
the line remains consistent with thunderstorms moving through
the western Mohawk Valley through 5PM, reaching the Capital
Region/upper Hudson Valley/southern Adirondacks between 4PM-6PM,
and be exiting the eastern portions of the CWA between 7PM-9PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Another active day is forecast on Wednesday, with a low to
medium chance of isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms. The
highest likelihood of severe thunderstorms will be from the
Capital Region south and east where 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE is
forecast to exist in conjunction with 0-6 km shear in excess of
30 knots. 12z HREF guidance indicates that convection will begin
by early afternoon and move east through the afternoon hours. Damaging
winds will be the primary hazard with any strong to severe
thunderstorm that develop.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

The long term period will be dry with seasonable temperatures
thanks to surface high pressure below northwest 500 hPa flow.
Highs each day will be in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 50s
and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18z Wednesday...VFR conditions currently prevail across
all four TAF sites with visible satellite showing increasing
cumulus ahead of an incoming upper-level disturbance and broken
line of thunderstorms. Flying conditions will remain VFR into
late this afternoon before the aforementioned broken line of
thunderstorms congeals into a strong line that will cross
through at least KALB/KGFL/KPSF. There is still uncertainty in
whether the line will extend all the way through KPOU, but some
more discrete thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. The timing of the greatest threat/likelihood of
thunderstorm impact looks to fall between 21-23z at KGFL and
KALB and between 23-01z at KPOU and KPSF. TEMPO groups were
added to the TAFs to account for these.

Upon the conclusion of thunderstorms this afternoon, skies
should generally clear out rather quickly, yielding VFR
conditions once again. However, with elevated humidity lingering
at the surface and clear skies to promote radiational cooling,
there is a potential for fog formation at the typical sites of
KGFL and KPSF tonight especially if they get heavy rain from
thunderstorms. Once fog burns off tomorrow morning, VFR
conditions will be in place once again.

The main threat for thunderstorms this afternoon is strong to
potentially damaging winds. Gusts of up to 40 kt were added to
KALB/KGFL/KPSF where the strongest storms are anticipated. Winds
will prevail out of the west to northwest throughout the
period. Outside of thunderstorm gusts, sustained speeds will
range from 5-10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon.
Tonight into tomorrow, sustained speeds will decrease to 2-5 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. threats with MVFR to IFR
conditions possible.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ038>041-043-
     049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066-083-084.
MA...None.
VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Gant/KL
NEAR TERM...Humphrey
SHORT TERM...Humphrey
LONG TERM...Humphrey
AVIATION...Gant

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
300 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

CTZ001-013-NYZ064>066-171130-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
300 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut and
east central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms this evening.
Thunderstorms may produce isolated to scattered instances of downed
trees, tree limbs and power outages due to damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms for most
of the region Wednesday. Thunderstorms may produce isolated to
scattered instances of downed trees, tree limbs and power outages
due to damaging wind gusts.

Heat indices could approach the mid 90s within portions of the mid
Hudson Valley and Litchfield County in northwest Connecticut. Should
this potential increase, heat advisories would be issued for these
areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-042-047-048-051-054-058-061-082-VTZ013-014-
171130-
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
Northern Warren-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Western Albany-
Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Columbia-Northern Fulton-
Bennington-Western Windham-
300 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Massachusetts, east
central New York, eastern New York and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms for most
of the region Wednesday. Thunderstorms may produce isolated to
scattered instances of downed trees, tree limbs and power outages
due to damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NYZ038>041-043-049-050-052-053-059-060-083-084-VTZ015-171130-
Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-
Northern Washington-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-
Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Eastern Windham-
300 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central New York,
eastern New York and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms for most
of the region Wednesday. Thunderstorms may produce isolated to
scattered instances of downed trees, tree limbs and power outages
due to damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NYZ063-171130-
Western Ulster-
300 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms this evening.
Thunderstorms may produce isolated to scattered instances of downed
trees, tree limbs and power outages due to damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms for most
of the region Wednesday. Thunderstorms may produce isolated to
scattered instances of downed trees, tree limbs and power outages
due to damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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