Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
435 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region tonight with showers and
thunderstorms tapering off. An upper level disturbance will
bring cooler and less humid weather on Monday with a few
additional showers. Dry weather returns on Tuesday before
another system brings chances for more showers and thunderstorms
on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Tornado Watch #448 in effect for areas mainly along and north of
Interstate 90 until 8 PM EDT

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #449 in effect for southern areas
until 10 PM EDT

We remain in the warm sector of a low pressure system located
across southern Quebec. More showers and thunderstorms will be
possible into the evening hours as additional activity develops
across central and western New York. The 18z KALY sounding shows
MLCAPE values 1000-1500 J/kg with 0-6km shear values up to 50
kt. Environmental parameters remain favorable for all severe
hazards into the evening hours. What is uncertain is the
coverage of this activity which may now be more scattered in
nature. The Tornado Watch will continue for areas along and
north of Interstate 90 with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch now in
effect for southern areas.

Activity will gradually taper off tonight as the front crosses
the region and brings in a cooler and less humid air mass in its
wake. Temperatures will fall back into the 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper-level trough/low will push across the region on Monday.
The associated cold pool will support some rain showers
especially for western areas. Otherwise, it will be a cooler,
breezy and less humid day with highs only reaching the 60s and
70s.

High pressure will then build into the region Monday night and
on Tuesday with a period of dry weather. 850 hPa temperatures
rebound to +15 to +17C which will allow temperatures to rise
back into the 80s to around 90 except the mid to upper 70s
across the higher elevations.

A warm front associated with our next system will lift northward
across our region Tuesday night. A few showers and rumbles of
thunder will be possible along the front especially for northern
and western areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
We will be warm sectored again on Wednesday ahead of another low
pressure system and approaching cold front. Showers and
thunderstorms will likely develop along a prefrontal trough
especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Ahead of this
convection, it will be warm and humid once again with highs
reaching the mid 80s to lower 90s across the lower elevations
and mid-70s to lower 80s in the higher elevations. We may
approach heat advisory criteria for parts of the area especially
along the mid-Hudson Valley.

This system departs the area Wednesday night with high pressure
returning with cooler, less humid and dry weather to end the
week. Yet another low pressure system may cross the region next
weekend with additional showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A warm and humid air mass is in place ahead of an approaching
frontal boundary. After low clouds and fog earlier this morning,
flying conditions have returned to be VFR, as the low clouds
have cleared away. Sct diurnal cumulus will develop around 4-6
kft, along with some passing mid and high level clouds. South to
southwest winds will be around 10 kts, and will be gusty at
KALB.

A broken line of showers and t-storms looks to impact the TAF
sites (mainly north of KPOU) for later this afternoon into this
evening. This activity could impact KGFL as early as 19z, but
probably won't get to KALB/KPSF until 21z or so. Within
thunderstorms, IFR conditions within heavy rainfall is expected,
along with gusty winds over 35 kts. KPOU may be too far south
to avoid most of the activity, but can't rule out an isolated
storm impacting the terminal there around 00z or so.

Thunderstorm activity should diminish after 02z or so. It may
start out at VFR, but some lower clouds may return by the late
night hours. Some MVFR conditions are possible by the late night
for KGFL/KPSF too. Southwest winds will be 5 to 10 kts through
the overnight, but will start to become westerly towards
daybreak.

Some lingering lower clouds are expected on Monday. Westerly
winds will be around 10 kts for all sites. It may be still MVFR
for KGFL/KPSF, but it should be VFR for KALB/KPOU. A stray
shower can't be ruled out during the afternoon, but it looks
light and brief.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ040-049-050-
     052-053-059-060-064>066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Frugis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
439 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

CTZ001-013-NYZ059-060-064>066-241100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
439 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut and
east central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is also a chance for thunderstorms on Wednesday into Wednesday
night. Heat Index values on Wednesday could approach advisory
criteria once again especially across the mid-Hudson Valley.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay severe weather reports to
the National Weather Service in Albany New York.

MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038-039-041>043-048-051-054-082>084-VTZ013>015-
241100-
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Western Schenectady-Western Albany-
Eastern Rensselaer-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
439 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...TORNADO WATCH 448 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Massachusetts, eastern
New York and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is also a chance for thunderstorms on Wednesday into Wednesday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay severe weather reports to
the National Weather Service in Albany New York.

NYZ047-058-061-063-241100-
Schoharie-Western Greene-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-
439 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is also a chance for thunderstorms on Wednesday into Wednesday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay severe weather reports to
the National Weather Service in Albany New York.

NYZ040-049-050-052-053-241100-
Montgomery-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-
439 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 448 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central New York and
eastern New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is also a chance for thunderstorms on Wednesday into Wednesday
night. Heat Index values on Wednesday could approach advisory
criteria once again.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay severe weather reports to
the National Weather Service in Albany New York.

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