Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
926 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system will impact the area tonight,
bringing rain and breezy to windy conditions to the region. Cooler,
drier conditions return for the weekend into early next week.
The next storm system is expected to develop along the southeast
coast Monday night, lifting northeast along the mid Atlantic
coast Tuesday through Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 155 PM PM EST Friday...

The latest analysis indicates intense sfc low pressure (~987mb)
centered over central IL, with sfc high pressure now well off
the mid-Atlantic coast. Aloft, the flow is from the SW, with a
weak upper level ridge from the mid-Atlantic to the St Lawrence
Valley. Upstream, a strong upper low is situated to the west of
the sfc low, spinning across the mid/upper MS Valley. Locally,
skies are partly cloudy (high clouds), with E-SE winds of 10-15
mph. Temperatures as of 130 pm range through the 50s.

Not a lot of change to the forecast as we head into the evening,
with the sfc low forecast to continue deepening while moving NE
to the central Great Lakes tonight. As this occurs, the parent sfc
low looks to become occluded, with secondary sfc low pressure
developing over the central/southern Appalachians. This will
help lift a warm front NE through the Carolinas by early in
evening, continuing to push NE through much of the CWA through
midnight. As this occurs, dew points will rise rapidly through
the 40s, into the 50s to lower 60s towards midnight (in tandem with
rising temperatures). PWATs around 1.50" S to 1.25" NW also
move into the area during this time. The heaviest rain is
expected late this evening from about 03Z/10pm through early Sat
morning about 08Z/3am along and ahead of the cold front as a
narrow QLCS forms and moves E across the area (associated with
the higher instability due to moisture pooling along the front).
Rain ends from W to E early Sat morning, with CAMs showing most
of the rain over by 4 AM Sat. Total QPF has been raised a bit
given trends in some of the CAMs, with 0.75-1.00" now expected
across the NW half of the FA with 0.25-0.75" across the SE half.
Additionally, with high PWATs, and embedded convection, locally
rainfall amounts will be higher. Flash flood guidance is very
low across the area with 1-hr rainfall of 0.5-0.75" enough to
cause flash flooding across central VA (locally as low as 0.25"
in 1 hr for the city of Richmond). Soil remains saturated and
many rivers remain in flood stage. As such, any additional
rainfall will have nowhere to go. The Flood Watch remain in
effect, approximately located along and W of the I-95 corridor
where confidence is high at seeing QPF amounts of >0.50""+. The
added rainfall will also prolong river flooding.

As for severe potential, the latest runs of the HRRR show ML
CAPE values up to around 200-500 J/kg making it to around the
I-64 corridor and 500- 1000 J/kg in SE VA/NE NC after midnight.
This instability will be narrow and short lived. However, with
0-1 SRH of around 400 m2/s2 and very strong shear, any
convection that can become robust enough to tap into the
environment may produce damaging winds and an isolated tornado.
The RAP/HRRR remain aggressive showing STP values of 4-6 across
SE VA/NE NC from about midnight through 3-4am. This is a
possibility if dew points make it into the mid 60s. The far NW
portions of the CWA will likely see little to no instability and
will therefore limited severe threat. The latest SPC Day 1 SWO
still place only marginal severe threat into southern VA and NE
NC, but would anticipate the highest SVR threat being across
southern/SE VA/NE NC. The main risk is damaging winds and an
isolated tornado. The severe threat ends behind the cold front
after 3-4am as the front pushes off the coast.

Just from the gradient winds and mixing later tonight, winds
continue to increase this evening to 20-25 mph with gusts to 35
mph inland and 25-30 mph with gusts as high as 45-55 mph along
the coast. As such, a Wind Advisory remains in effect along the
coast, and we have expanded it a tier of counties across SE
VA/NE NC. Winds become S tonight ahead of the cold front before
becoming SW 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph behind the front.
Lows tonight will not follow the traditional diurnal curve,
rising in the evening and dropping sharply towards sunrise in
the wake of the cold front. Lows will range from the lower 40s
NW to the lower 50s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 350 PM EST Friday...

Strong pressure rises (on the order of 10-12mb/6hr) push into
the region Sat morning after 12Z. This will lead to windy
conditions all areas, with WSW winds of 15-25mph, gusting to
30-35mph, as high pressure builds into the SE CONUS while low
pressure moves across Ontario/Quebec. Given a fairly warm start
Sat morning, expect the downslope flow and sunshine to offset
CAA enough to lead to highs into the upper 50s SE to the upper
40s/around 50F NW. Seasonably cold Sat night with lows in the
upper 20s to mid 30s with diminishing winds. Sunday looks a
little cooler as the arctic boundary brings much colder air in
from the NW late in the day. Partly-mostly sunny with highs in
the mid/upper 40s NW to the mid 50s SE. Slightly less breezy
compared to Sat. After that, the surge of much colder air moves
in from the W later Sun night into Mon. Lows into the teens NW
with 20s across most of the rest of the CWA. The flow aloft
temporarily flattens out on Monday, with sfc high pressure
settling into the region. Cold with increasing clouds, but it
should remain dry through the day. Highs mid 30s N to mid 40s S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 PM EST Friday...

By Monday night, the strong upper low remain anchored across
Hudson Bay Canada, with the next shortwave progged to drop E-SE
from the northern Plains. The models remain somewhat divergent
with respect to how progressive this wave will be, the GFS
generally stronger compared to the ECMWF. At this timeframe,
will continue going with the ensemble means and NBM for ptype
and PoPs, bringing likely PoPs to the coast Tuesday, with highs
chc farther inland. The latest GEFS has backed off slightly
regarding snow amounts, but still shows mean amounts of 1-3"
across central VA, with little to nothing across the SE. The EPS
has also dropped slightly, but again this is more due to the
suppressed track/weaker sfc low rather than a warmer solution.
As such, will still be highlighting mostly SN across the NW 1/3
of the CWA Tue, RA over the SE and RA/SN in between. Highs Tue
mid 30s NW to upper 40s/around 50F far SE. WPC has a 10-30%
chance for at least 0.25" of liquid equivalent snow/sleet for
everywhere except the far SE and even has most of central VA to
the MD eastern shore in a 30-50% chance. Will continue to
monitor trends. The cold arctic airmass pushes further into the
area Tue night with lows in the teens well inland, to the lower-
mid 20s closer to the coast. Wind chill values Wed AM will be
into the single digits to lower teens CWA-wide. Any remaining
precip Tue night will become all snow even at the coast. Very
cold and dry Wed with highs around 30F N to the mid 30s SE. Lows
Wed night again in the teens for most of the area. Temps
moderate some late week with highs in the upper 30s NW to mid
40s SE Thu and Fri. Lows Thu night in the upper teens NW to
upper 20s SE. Additionally, some model guidance is hinting at
moisture arriving Fri with rain/snow possible across the NW and
mainly rain elsewhere. However, this is a low chance at this
time (<20% PoP).

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 700 PM EST Friday...

VFR is observed at all area terminals as of 00z/13. However,
conditions are expected to deteriorate shortly to MVFR and then
IFR later tonight into early Sat morning as rain/showers push
into the area. As of 00z, mainly light rain is falling across
the central and western portions of the area with eastern areas
closer to the coast remaining on the dry side. However, rain
should begin by 3z at all locations. Expecting RIC to drop to
IFR CIGS/vsby by 2-3z with PHF, ORF, SBY, and ECG dropping to
IFR a few hrs later. Rain also increases in intensity with the
potential for embedded tstms increasing after 3z (especially
across the SE). Strong/gusty SE winds will also shift to the S
and increase quickly, with at least winds gusts to 30-35kt
during over the next 6-12 hrs, with 35-40kt likely near the
coast. Localized stronger winds associated w/ convective showers
and tstms could bring very brief strong/severe wind gusts in
excess of 50kt. Winds become SW ~15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt
behind the front, generally from 06-10Z from W to E across the
region. Additionally, veering low level wind shear of 50-65kt is
expected this evening into early Sat morning as the LLJ
increases. With dry air pushing into the area Sat morning, skies
should gradually clear with CIGs rising above MVFR from about
11z onward. Sat aftn should be mostly sunny with a gusty W wind
(sustained 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt), diminishing for the
late aftn and evening.

Outlook: VFR is expected Sun into Mon. The next system
approaches the area Mon night through Tue and may bring
rain/snow and reduced CIGs/VSBYs at all sites Tue-Wed morning.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EST Friday...

This afternoon, strong ~984 mb low pressure is developing just south
of the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, ~1023 mb high pressure is now located
off the Mid Atlantic coast. Winds are generally out of the ESE and
range from ~10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Seas are
generally running around 3 to 4 feet and waves in the Bay are
running around 2 feet.

The low will continue to lift further to the north this evening into
tonight dragging a warm front across the area. A cold front then
crosses the waters late tonight into early Monday morning. Winds
will quickly increase to around 20 to 25 knots and become SE this
evening. Winds increase further after sunset into tonight to around
20 to 30 knots with gusts of 40 to 45 knots out of the SSE to S.
Seas build to 8-13 ft N and 7-10 ft S, with waves 4-6 ft into the
Bay (briefly to 6-7ft at the mouth of the Bay. Gale Warnings remain
in effect for all waters this evening into Saturday. In addition, we
may see wind gusts in excess of 45 knots with any stronger showers
or thunderstorms tonight (best potential south). The cold front
crosses the waters late tonight into early Saturday morning, with
winds becoming SW and diminishing slightly (still remaining ~20 to
25 knots with gusts to 30 knots). Remaining breezy through Saturday
afternoon with Gale conditions continuing north of Cape Charles, and
high-end SCA conditions elsewhere. It is possible that the Gale
Warning may need to be extended further south and across the
Chesapeake Bay, with local wind probs showing a 30 to 40% for Gale
force gusts afternoon, especially from ~16 to 20z Saturday
afternoon. Winds diminish slightly by Saturday night, but SCA
conditions likely continue into Sunday for at least the coastal
waters and portions of the Chesapeake Bay.

Winds remain elevated from the WSW even on Sunday with strong arctic
high pressure building S into the Plains, then finally drop off more
significantly by Monday as the gradient weakens. A potential storm
system develops off the SE coast Tuesday into Wednesday, with winds
turning back to the N and increasing.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 925 PM EDT Friday...

Ongoing river flooding will continue through tonight. Most of
the river sites have crested or are near crest at this time,
except for Sebrell which will rise above flood stage by
tomorrow. In addition, have issued a warning for the South Anna
River near Ashland, as it is about to rise above flood stage
again. With the current system not expected to see as much rain
as the previous system, new flooding is not expected along area
rivers into the weekend. However, some nuisance flooding of
smaller creeks and streams is again possible given the very
saturated ground and any rainfall going completely into runoff.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 345 PM EST Friday...

A Coastal Flood Advisory will go into effect at 7 PM this evening
for NC counties along the north side of the Albemarle Sound and for
Currituck on the Currituck Sound. An advisory is also in effect for
southern VA Beach. Water levels will increase to minor flood levels
later this evening into tonight, especially near Elizabeth City and
across lower VA Beach along Back Bay and North Landing River, as
southeast winds increase. There is less confidence of minor flooding
at Edenton, though water levels will increase close to one foot
above current water levels. At Elizabeth City water levels could
rise about 1.5 ft.

A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for Dorchester and
Wicomico counties for tonight, where moderate flooding is expected.
There is a chance that Bishops Head, MD has a possibility of reach
major flood stage tonight, but not expecting it at this time. Most
highest water levels will be lower for this storm than the storm
from Tuesday. In addition, upgraded the Coastal Flood Watch to a
Warning for Somerset County. The highest waters levels at Crisfield
will likely be Saturday afternoon (compared to tonight further
north) as winds become more SW. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been
issued for the tidal Potomac River for tonight.

A High Surf Advisory has been issued for the VA/MD eastern shore
where confidence is high at seeing nearshore waves 8ft or
greater.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for MDZ021>025.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for MDZ021-022.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EST Saturday for MDZ023.
     High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for MDZ025.
NC...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for NCZ015>017-102.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for NCZ015>017-
     031-032.
VA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for VAZ075-077-078-
     084>086-095-097>100-523>525.
     High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for VAZ099-100.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for VAZ098.
     Flood Watch until 4 AM EST Saturday for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-
     079>081-509>517.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for VAZ075-077.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for VAZ089-090.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630>638.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LKB/SW
MARINE...AJB
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
950 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

NCZ015>017-VAZ098-130400-
Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Virginia Beach-
950 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.

A strong low pressure system has the potential to bring locally
heavy rain and an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm late
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ012>014-030-031-VAZ087-088-092-093-096-130400-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Bertie-Chowan-Greensville-Sussex-
Southampton-Isle of Wight-Suffolk-
950 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A strong low pressure system has the potential to bring locally
heavy rain, strong gusty winds, and an isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Wind chill values will range from 10 to 15 degrees Wednesday
morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ102-VAZ095-097-524-525-130400-
Eastern Currituck-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Chesapeake-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
950 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

A strong low pressure system has the potential to bring locally
heavy rain and an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm late
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Wind chill values will range from 10 to 15 degrees Wednesday
morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ089-130400-
Surry-
950 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

A strong low pressure system has the potential to bring locally
heavy rain, strong gusty winds, and an isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Wind chill values will range from 10 to 15 degrees Wednesday
morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ032-130400-
Perquimans-
950 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

A strong low pressure system has the potential to bring locally
heavy rain, strong gusty winds, and an isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

Wind chill values will range from 10 to 15 degrees Wednesday
morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ065-066-079-130400-
Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Brunswick-
950 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

A strong low pressure system has the potential to bring locally
heavy rain, strong gusty winds, and an isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Wind chill values will range from 5 to 15 degrees Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ100-130400-
Northampton-
950 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   High Surf Advisory.

A strong low pressure system has the potential to bring locally
heavy rain, strong gusty winds, and an isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Surf Advisory.

Wind chill values will range from 10 to 15 degrees Wednesday
morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ048-060>062-064-067>069-080-081-509>517-130400-
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Nottoway-Amelia-
Powhatan-Dinwiddie-Prince George-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-
Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-
950 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, east
central Virginia, north central Virginia and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

A strong low pressure system has the potential to bring strong gusty
winds tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is the potential for snow Tuesday through Tuesday night. Wind
chill values Wednesday morning will range from 5 to 15 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ025-VAZ099-130400-
Maryland Beaches-Accomack-
950 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   High Surf Advisory.

Another strong low pressure system has the potential to bring
locally heavy rain, strong gusty winds, and possibly strong to
severe thunderstorms tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Surf Advisory.

There is the potential for snow late Tuesday through Tuesday night.
Wind chill values Wednesday morning will range from 5 to 15 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ021-022-130400-
Dorchester-Wicomico-
950 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Coastal Flood Warning.

Another strong low pressure system has the potential to bring
locally heavy rain, strong gusty winds, and possibly an isolated
strong
to severe thunderstorm tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Warning.

There is the potential for snow Tuesday through Tuesday night. Wind
chill values Wednesday morning will range from 5 to 15 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ024-VAZ078-084>086-523-130400-
Inland Worcester-Lancaster-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-York-
950 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, eastern
Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Another strong low pressure system has the potential to bring
locally heavy rain, strong gusty winds, and possibly an isolated
strong
to severe thunderstorm late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is the potential for rain ending as snow Tuesday night. Wind
chill values Wednesday morning will range from 10 to 15 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ023-130400-
Somerset-
950 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Coastal Flood Warning.

A strong low pressure system has the potential to bring locally
heavy rain, and strong gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Warning.

There is the potential for rain ending as snow Tuesday night. Wind
chill values Wednesday morning will range from 10 to 15 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ090-130400-
James City-
950 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

Another strong low pressure system has the potential to bring
locally heavy rain and strong gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is the potential for snow Tuesday through Tuesday night. Wind
chill values Wednesday morning will range from 5 to 15 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ076-082-083-518>522-130400-
Richmond-Charles City-New Kent-Eastern King William-
Western King and Queen-Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-
950 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Another strong low pressure system has the potential to bring
locally heavy rain and strong gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is the potential for snow Tuesday through Tuesday night. Wind
chill values Wednesday morning will range from 5 to 15 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ075-077-130400-
Westmoreland-Northumberland-
950 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Virginia and
eastern Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is the potential for snow Tuesday through Tuesday night. Wind
chill values Wednesday morning will range from 5 to 15 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
927 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

NCZ012-013-VAZ079-087-088-092-093-096-130315-
Hertford NC-Northampton NC-Isle of Wight VA-Sussex VA-Southampton VA-
Suffolk VA-Brunswick VA-Greensville VA-
927 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHAMPTON...NORTHWESTERN
HERTFORD...GREENSVILLE...SOUTHWESTERN ISLE OF WIGHT...SOUTHAMPTON...
SOUTH CENTRAL SUSSEX AND SOUTHEASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTIES...THE CITY
OF FRANKLIN...THE CITY OF EMPORIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CITY OF
SUFFOLK THROUGH 1015 PM EST...

At 927 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles southeast of Warrenton to 6 miles
south of Halifax. Movement was northeast at 80 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small trees and blow around
         unsecured objects. Wind impacting handling of high profile
         vehicles.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Roanoke Rapids and Garysburg around 940 PM EST.
  Gaston, Conway, and Seaboard around 945 PM EST.
  Boykins and Dahlia around 950 PM EST.
  Newsoms, Como, and Claresville around 955 PM EST.
  Franklin and Suffolk around 1000 PM EST.
  Courtland, Holland, Hunterdale, and Carrsville around 1005 PM EST.
  Sedley around 1010 PM EST.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Milwaukee, Grizzard,
Gum Forks, Pleasant Shade, Henrico, Jackson, Pleasant Grove, Lees
Mill, Creeksville, and Gumberry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3632 7744 3631 7751 3631 7757 3634 7758
      3638 7755 3641 7755 3645 7763 3648 7765
      3649 7773 3648 7775 3651 7790 3654 7790
      3655 7796 3678 7774 3681 7706 3671 7665
      3629 7741
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 235DEG 69KT 3627 7809 3623 7763

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Wray

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1010 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

VAZ088>090-092-093-096-523>525-130345-
Hampton/Poquoson-Isle of Wight-Surry-Sussex-Southampton-Newport
News-Suffolk-York-James City-
1010 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT ISLE OF WIGHT...NORTHEASTERN
SOUTHAMPTON...YORK...EAST CENTRAL SUSSEX...SOUTHEASTERN JAMES CITY...
AND EASTERN SURRY COUNTIES...THE CITY OF POQUOSON...THE CENTRAL CITY
OF SUFFOLK...THE CITY OF HAMPTON...THE CITY OF NEWPORT NEWS AND THE
CITY OF WILLIAMSBURG...

At 1009 PM EST, radar indicated showers were located along a line
extending from near Sussex to near Downtown Suffolk. Movement was
northeast at 60 mph.

Winds in excess of 45 to 50 mph are possible with these showers.

Locations impacted include...
Newport News, Hampton, Williamsburg, Smithfield, Windsor, Wakefield,
Surry, Langley AFB, Queens Lake, Virginia Institute For Marine
Sciences, Hampton University, Christopher Newport University, Patrick
Henry Field, Holland, Seaford, Gloucester Point, Suffolk, Isle Of
Wight, Northampton, and Ivor.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these showers, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3686 7726 3720 7679 3719 7677 3721 7678
      3734 7660 3731 7655 3730 7656 3730 7655
      3729 7654 3730 7654 3727 7651 3725 7650
      3725 7647 3708 7622 3702 7625 3666 7673
TIME...MOT...LOC 0309Z 236DEG 77KT 3688 7725 3669 7658

JO