Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
456 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A very strong low pressure system will track into the Upper
Great Lakes this evening, bringing continued widespread
moderate to heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the area into
tonight. Another strong low pressure system will impact the area
Friday into Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 400 PM EST Tuesday...

High pressure is now well offshore ahead of approaching strong low
pressure (982mb) over central Indiana. Surface observations show the
warm front lifting rapidly northward across the area with winds
becoming southeasterly and gusty in its wake. Expect winds to
continue to increase through the evening ahead of the surface cold
front. Winds will average 20-35 mph by late this afternoon with
gusts to 40-60 mph (highest near the coast). Winds become S this
evening ahead of the boundary with the strongest winds expected
during this time (ahead of and along the cold front). A High Wind
Warning continues for all zones adjacent to the Atlantic coast and
Ches Bay in addition to Chowan, Perquimans, Pasquotank, and Camden
in NE NC and Chesapeake in VA. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for
the remainder of the FA except for the central VA Piedmont from
Louisa-Farmville. Temps rise into the upper 50s N to low-mid 60s S
late this afternoon into this evening with the warmest temps during
the evening just ahead of the cold front.

Moist air continues to spread north and west as the surface wind
field strengthens. SPC has issued Tornado Watch #7 until 9pm for the
SW portion of the local area. Expect local extensions or additional
separate watches this evening as the threat progresses eastward.
Low level instability is lacking so far but with extremely
impressive kinematics aloft, the main threats will continue to
be strong to severe (60-70mph) straight line winds and isolated
tornadoes this evening. Radar observations show a strongly-
forced convective line to our west with a few reports of downed
trees so far associated with the increased winds.

Storm total rainfall of generally 1.5-2.0" with locally higher
totals is expected across the area with slightly lower totals for
the far SE portion of the area. Given the wet antecedent conditions,
have maintained a Flood Watch for all areas except NE NC. The precip
ends/moves off the coast by 11 PM-1 AM, as winds turn to the W-SW
following a cold FROPA (but remain breezy with 30-45 mph gusts
expected). Lows temps by Wed morning range from the mid-upper 30s W
to the mid 40s E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 400 PM EST Tuesday...

Much improved weather expected for Wednesday but it will remain
breezy inland to windy near the coast as mixing gets underway. Winds
will decrease by late afternoon with skies clearing from SW to NE.
Afternoon high temps range from the upper 40s NW to the low 50s over
the remainder of the area. Cooler Wednesday night with lows in the
upper 20s to low 30s.

High pressure begins to move offshore late in the day Thursday with
continued dry conditions. High temps rise into the mid 50s with
mostly sunny skies. high clouds increase a bit Thursday night as
another strong area of low pressure develops over the southern
Plains. Lows overnight will fall into the upper 20s to low 30s over
much of the area with low/mid 30s along the coast. Clouds quickly
thicken Friday afternoon with increasing PoPs from the SW late
morning into the afternoon. High temps rise into the 50s to the
low/mid 60s. This system appears to mirror the current weather
maker's strength and track, bringing the potential for strong winds
and heavy rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 PM EST Tuesday...

With the high off the SE coast, a ridge rapidly builds over the E
coast Fri while a trough moves into the MS Valley before taking on a
negative tilt. This rapid increase in baroclinicity will allow for
yet another low pressure system to undergo rapid cyclogenesis and
deepen from ~996mb over AR Fri morning to ~980 mb (or lower) over
the OH Valley/Great Lakes Sat morning. As such, a strong cold front
from the system will move through the FA Fri night with moderate to
heavy rain and windy conditions once again expected from Fri
afternoon into Fri night. The heaviest showers will occur Fri night
ahead of the cold front with highest totals across N portions of the
FA (0.75-1.0"+) and lower totals S. Additionally, models show a few
hundred J/kg of MLCAPE to push into the FA Fri night which combined
with an enhanced wind field and high SRH will allow for at least
isolated severe potential with any storms that may develop. SPC has
a D4 Slight Risk (level 2/5) extending through central NC and into
Mecklenburg. Would not be surprised if a Marginal Risk (level 1/5)
gets introduced further N in future updates. The main threat once
again is damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Outside of
convection, winds increase 20-30 mph with gusts of 40-50 mph
(highest E) Fri night. There is a good chance that wind headlines
may again be required for at least eastern portions of the area. The
rain ends from SW to NE Fri night behind the cold front with lows
Sat morning in the lower 40s W to upper 40s to lower 50s E.

Colder air finally moves in to the area behind this system by around
Sun and remains through the week. Mainly dry conditions are expected
Sat-Sun night. However, ensembles show a trough moving into the E
coast Mon into early Wed with deterministic and ensemble guidance
continuing to support at least some low pressure formation roughly
over the area Tuesday. Details remain uncertain regarding the
location with significant spread noted among both the GEFS and EPS.
As such, have favored mainly NBM PoPs (but did bump them up ~10-20%
over the raw output) and temperatures for this timeframe which show
a potential for rain/snow during the Mon-Tue timeframe (max PoP of
30-50% Mon night-Tues aftn). Will need to get closer to the event
and allow models to get a better handle on the trough before
confidence can increase on ptype. As such, confidence during this
time is low in p-type/temperatures and moderate in at least some
moisture falling.

Highs in the upper 40s W to upper 50s E Sat, lower 40s NW to upper
40s SE Sun, lower 40s NW to mid 50s SE Mon, and upper 30s NW to
around 50F SE Tue. Lows in the low-mid 20s NW to around 30F SE Sat
night, mid 20s NW to around 30F SE Sun night, and mid 20s NW to mid
30s SE Mon night. There is a strong signal that the coldest air of
the season arrives in the wake of the midweek system extending into
the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1255 PM EST Tuesday...

Deteriorating flying conditions this afternoon with IFR CIGs
noted along and west of I-95. KRIC has been hovering around
MVFR/IFR, will show prevailing MVFR but brief reductions to IFR
will remain possible this afternoon. Heavier rainfall moves into
the region late this afternoon into the evening with IFR
CIGs/VSBY accompanying the strongly forced line of
showers/storms that moves through from W to E this evening with
gusty winds. Have maintained VCTS wording to account for this
potential. This line will drive CIGs to IFR across the terminals
before CIGs improve to MVFR/VFR behind the front tonight as
drier air moves in. SE winds are generally 15-25 kt with gusts
25-30 kt.

Winds become SE 20-25 kt with gusts to 40 kt inland and 45-50
kt along the coast later this afternoon. The strongest winds
are expected late this afternoon into this evening as the LLJ
ramps up ahead of the front. Winds shift to S this evening ahead
of the cold front before becoming SW 15-20 kt with gusts to
25-35 kt behind the front tonight. Winds will be very strong
aloft due to a strengthening SE LLJ with strong LLWS expected
to continue into the evening.

Outlook: Conditions improve Wed as drier air moves in behind the
strong low pressure system.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 430 PM EST Tuesday...

Latest analysis indicates ~980mb sfc low pressure across NW
Ohio, with sfc high pressure now well offshore. Seas are rapidly
increasing to 8-12 ft, with waves 4-8 ft into the Bay and 3-5 ft
for the rivers. Winds intensify further over the next few hrs,
tending to peak this evening, lingering past midnight across NW
portions of the waters. Winds veer to the SSW and eventually
W-SW late tonight into Wed morning as the cold front crosses the
region.

Additionally, there could be convection that could tap into
very impressive h925 winds of 80-90+ kt, bringing stronger
wind gusts to the surface. The strength of the pressure with
this event appears to be overcoming the typical southerly wind
poor mixing, typically owing to cooler SST. Storm Warnings are
in effect for the Atlantic coastal waters, Chesapeake Bay,
Currituck Sound, and lower James River. Gale Warnings remain in
effect for the upper tidal rivers.

Remaining breezy to windy Wednesday in the wake of the system,
with Gale Force gusts likely redeveloping between 6am and noon
for most of the area given strong pressure rises and drier
air, leading to deep mixing. SCA conditions then linger into
early Wednesday night for wind and potentially through Thursday
for seas in excess of 5 feet. A brief period of quieter
conditions return Thursday as high pressure briefly returns.
Another storm system approaches the waters later Friday into
Saturday, bringing the potential for Gale force winds and
building seas back to the region Friday night into Saturday.

Seas also rapidly build to dangerous levels with the strong
SE/SSE flow, with seas quickly building to 10-15 ft nearshore
and 15-20+ ft at 10-12 second periods farther offshore late
tonight (highest northern coastal waters) into Wed morning.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 430 PM EST Tuesday...

Tidal anomalies are rapidly increasing this aftn due to strong
south to southeast winds ahead of a potent low pressure system.
Have made a few headline additions, adding a Coastal Flood
Advisory for a few counties along the south shore of James River
and across the middle Peninsula this evening, while maintaining
the Coastal Flood Warnings across the northern Neck and MD
eastern shore. Also added Inland Worcester MD to a Coastal Flood
Warning to cover potential moderate flooding up the Pocomoke
River on Wed given that winds turn to the SW and remain from
that direction on Wednesday. Major coastal flooding is forecast
for Cambridge and Bishops Head, and water levels at Crisfield
and Saxis should reach at least high-end moderate levels
(approaching Major).

Additionally, significant sound- side flooding along the
northern Albemarle Sound, Currituck Sound, Back Bay in VA and
adjacent tidal waterways is expected this evening. As a result,
Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for coastal northeast
North Carolina and southern portions of the city of Virginia
Beach, VA.

Finally, nearshore waves in excess of 10 feet will likely lead to
significant beach and dune erosion through Wednesday. High Surf
Advisories remain in effect for all area Atlantic Beaches.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flood Watch until 1 AM EST Wednesday for MDZ021>025.
     High Wind Warning until 4 AM EST Wednesday for MDZ021>025.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM EST Wednesday for MDZ021>024.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for MDZ025.
NC...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for NCZ012>014-030.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NCZ015>017-
     030>032-102.
     High Wind Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for NCZ015>017-031-
     032-102.
     High Surf Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for NCZ102.
VA...Flood Watch until 1 AM EST Wednesday for VAZ048-060>062-
     064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
     High Wind Warning until 4 AM EST Wednesday for VAZ077-078-085-
     086-099-100.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM EST Wednesday for VAZ099.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for VAZ099-100.
     Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for VAZ062-064>069-075-
     076-079>084-087>090-092-093-096-511>524.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for VAZ098.
     High Wind Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for VAZ095-097-098-
     525.
     High Surf Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for VAZ098.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 3 AM EST Wednesday for VAZ075-077.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for VAZ078-
     084>086-089-093-096.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for VAZ100.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>634-638-656-
     658.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ635>637.
     Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RHR/RMM
NEAR TERM...RHR/RMM
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RMM/SW
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...LKB/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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