Storm Warning 3, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
256 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2024

.SHORT TERM...High pressure building up nicely in the Yukon and a
low passing south will encourage a northerly outflow pattern for
the panhandle. A shortwave trough current moving along the jet
will cause a developing surface low to pass south of the
panhandle. The result will be a pattern change back to cold
weather and clearing skies. Dry, cold air will force its way
through interior passes and inundate the entire panhandle.
Temperatures look to dive That being said, the entire panhandle
does at least dip below freezing for an extended period of time.

There is some threat of mountain wave activity in the downtown
Juneau and Douglas area. At this time, a watch has been issued
regarding these Taku winds. At any given time, two out of the
three generally accepted ingredients are in place to develop these
winds. At all times during the watch period, cross barrier flow
appears to be sufficient to generate high wind, however, the
critical layer and inversion is the main source of uncertainty.
During the initial 6 hours of the watch, the likelihood of a
critical layer setting up is substantially higher than the latter
half. Conversely, an inversion is more likely to set up in the
latter half of the watch with cooling temperatures at the surface.
If the critical layer holds on enough, then winds will reach the
surface at 60 mph or greater, but only if the critical layer stays
in place or is self induced from the cross barrier flow.

.LONG TERM...Colder conditions and outflow winds continue as
clear skies prevail across the panhandle. Although some cloud
cover, and increasing chances of precipitation, will slowly begin
to return to the southern panhandle by late in the week, do not
anticipate widespread precipitation across the area will return
until Sunday or Monday.

Aloft, a complex pattern will unfold through the week. Ridging will
continue to build in the upper levels across the panhandle, while a
trough diving south in the central gulf becomes detached from the
primary steering flow, forming an upper level low which will begin
to slowly retrograde to the West around a broad upper level high
situated over the Bering sea. The low level reflection of this
circulation will rapidly dive south in the Gulf through the week,
helping to strengthen the pressure gradient across the panhandle.

This strengthening pressure gradient will result in breezy
conditions across much of the panhandle. Gale force and small craft
winds will remain across both the inner and outer coastal waters.
Conditions will also prove favorable for the development of mountain
waves across various parts of SE AK - with the potential for an
intermittent mountain wave over Juneau in particular to continue
propagating through the duration of the week.

The pattern will begin to slowly shift back into a more active
regime through the weekend. An initial wave of precipitation will
attempt to move into the southern panhandle on Friday, but will
rapidly disintegrate in the face of continuing outflow winds and dry
air which will rapidly erode away what little moisture support it
has - though the southern panhandle may see at least some precip
from it before it falls apart completely. The next wave will prove
to be more resilient - moving N Saturday through Sunday, and having
the additional dynamic support of an associated area of low
pressure moving N across the Gulf. Although timing is not yet set
in stone, this system will likely bring accumulating snow across
much of SE AK, with precipitation reaching the N half of the
panhandle by Sunday. A more active weather pattern takes hold from
this point, and a series of waves will move through the area
during the first half of next week, bringing with them more snow
and rain.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions prevail across the panhandle this
afternoon as offshore flow starts up. A few exceptions to this
rule are some ground fog at Petersburg and Yakutat which is not
very widespread but is reducing visibility to around a mile at
times. That fog should diminish later tonight as outflow starts to
ramp up. Otherwise the main concern is turbulence with increasing
northerly outflow over the next day or two. Strongest outflow will
likely be Wed into Thu.

&&

.MARINE...Strong outflow winds will continue throughout the week
at varying strengths. With the initial trough passing south of the
panhandle, the initial hit of high marine winds will begin
starting Wednesday morning. Winds in Lynn Canal and out of
interior passes along the Fairweather Range will range between
moderate gales and low end storm force winds. In Yakutat Bay, out
of Disenchantment Bay and interior passes near Nanatak Fjord, low
end storm force winds will begin to pick up tomorrow afternoon.
As Lynn Canal is expected to have extended periods of northerly
winds, expect up to 8 ft seas by midweek.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for AKZ325.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ053-651-671.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-643-644-652-663-664.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-031>035-641-642-661-662-672.

&&

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....GFS
AVIATION...EAL

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>