Storm Warning 16, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
617 AM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.SHORT TERM...A strong low is currently entering the gulf bringing
high winds across the eastern gulf and panhandle. As this low
enters the gulf a front will make its way across the panhandle
starting this morning. The forecast has stayed on track with only
slight changes making the timing of winds on Monday start
increasing a bit earlier. Regardless, this low will bring strong
winds throughout the panhandle with high winds along the coastal
communities. A secondary front will occur late Monday night into
Tuesday morning again increasing winds for the southern panhandle
and coastal cities.

Total precipitation amounts remain between 1 to 3 inches at sea
level, with more accumulation at higher terrain possible. The
greatest total amounts will be in the southern panhandle. Expect
bands of rain that will create times of heavier rainfall.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday Afternoon through Friday/...As it progresses
into this timeframe, the aforementioned strong weather system
from the short term forecast period with its tight pressure
gradient will rapidly weaken as it approaches and moves over the
southern quarter of the Panhandle into Wednesday morning, causing
marine winds to decrease from solid mid to high end gale over the
eastern Gulf and southern half of the inner channels to only low-
end small craft(25 kt) wind values. Seas over that same area will
subside from up to 33 ft Tuesday afternoon to around 16 ft by mid
Wednesday morning. The SFC low will end up weakening from 988mb
to 1010mb over the southeastern gulf and southern Clarence Strait
areas by the middle of Wednesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions steadily deteriorate from South to North
through the day on Monday as a storm force front brings with it
high winds and wind shear to much of SE AK. Although the front
will weaken substantially after passing the Icy Strait Corridor,
areas from the Icy Strait Corridor South should anticipate gusty
winds, LLWS, and periods of moderate to heavy rain through
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...A powerful low is moving into the gulf today bringing storm
force winds to the eastern gulf through Tuesday. Expect winds to
increase and seas to build early this morning (Monday). Winds and
seas will stay elevated before beginning to diminish late Tuesday
into Wednesday.

Gulf:
As a strong low continues to make its way into the gulf this
morning, winds will increase to storm force across the eastern
gulf. Along with winds, expect seas to build to 25 to 35 ft. These
winds will persist through Tuesday before they start to diminish.

Inner Channels:
Expect gale force conditions to develop in Clarence Strait this
morning, with winds spreading into the central regions through the
day. As the front continues to move north Monday, other inner
channel winds will increase to 20 to 30 kts with areas seeing gale
force. After the initial front, Clarence Strait will diminish
slightly to 25 to 30 kts before a second front increases its winds
once again Tuesday. Winds begin to relax late Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from 10 AM AKDT this morning through Tuesday
     morning for AKZ317-322-323.
     Strong Wind from 10 AM AKDT this morning through late tonight
     for AKZ317-323.
     Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ319.
     Strong Wind from 1 PM AKDT this afternoon through this afternoon
     for AKZ321.
     Strong Wind from 1 PM AKDT this afternoon through late tonight
     for AKZ325.
     Strong Wind from 4 PM AKDT this afternoon through late tonight
     for AKZ326.
     Strong Wind from this evening through late tonight for AKZ327.
     Strong Wind until 10 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ328.
     High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM AKDT Tuesday
     for AKZ328-330-332.
     Strong Wind from 1 PM AKDT this afternoon through late tonight
     for AKZ329.
     Strong Wind from 4 PM AKDT this afternoon through this afternoon
     for AKZ330.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ641-642-644-661>664-671-672.
     Gale Warning for PKZ022-031-033>036-053-643-651.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-032-652.

&&

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM....JLC
AVIATION...GFS

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