Storm Warning 13, NWS Juneau, AK

028 
FZAK52 PAJK 231158
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
358 AM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-240600-
358 AM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A front finishes tracking through the panhandle today. Area of
low pressure lingers in the northern gulf through mid week.
Another low passes through the area late this week into the
weekend.  

$$

PKZ641-240600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision out to 15 NM-
358 AM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. Showers.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. Showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. Showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ661-240600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision from 15 to 90 NM-
358 AM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Showers. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Showers and slight chance
of thunderstorms. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. W swell. Showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. Showers.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ642-240600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe out to 15 NM-
358 AM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell. Showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the morning. Showers.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. Showers.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ662-240600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe from 15 to 80 NM-
358 AM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Showers. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. W swell. Showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. Showers.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ643-240600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Spencer out to 15 NM-
358 AM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. Showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. Showers.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ663-240600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Spencer from 15 to 80 NM-
358 AM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 17 ft in the
afternoon. Showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. Showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. Showers.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ644-240600-
Cape Spencer to Cape Fairweather out to 15 NM-
358 AM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...GALE WARNING EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt decreasing to 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell. Showers. Slight
chance of thunderstorms late. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the morning. Showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Rain
showers. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ664-240600-
Cape Spencer to Cape Fairweather from 15 to 85 NM-
358 AM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...GALE WARNING EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt decreasing 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. Showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Showers.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ651-240600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape out to 15 NM-
358 AM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...GALE WARNING EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt decreasing to 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain 
showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. Rain showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Rain
showers. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ671-240600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape from 15 to 80 NM-
358 AM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...GALE WARNING EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt decreasing to 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Showers. 
Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the evening. Showers.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. Showers.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Showers.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ652-240600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling out to 15 NM-
358 AM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 18 ft subsiding to 13 ft. Showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. Showers.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. Showers.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Showers.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ672-240600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling from 15 to 80 NM-
358 AM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...GALE WARNING EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt decreasing to 25 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding 
to 13 ft. Showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. Showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell in the morning.
Showers.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Showers.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
455 AM AKDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SHORT TERM.../through Sunday night/...
Quick Notes:
-A short-lived break in the rainy weather today.
-Light winds will be found are the area as well.
-Front later today brings back the heavy rain and stronger winds
 tonight.

Details:
A short break in rain is in the forecast for SE AK today.
Current satellite loop shows clouds trying to thin out so if that
trend is able to continue, parts of the area may end up with a
sunny Sunday.

The next round of heavy rain moves in tonight as a low sets up in
the western gulf, allowing for rain and wind to move back into the
panhandle. Rain will begin Sunday evening along the coast before it
quickly becomes widespread across the panhandle. For more
information on precipitation see the hydrology section.

The tightening pressure gradient with this low will create gale
force winds along the gulf coast Sunday evening. These tighter
gradients will also allow for strong breezes to occur in the inside
waters. The low pressure system will stay in the gulf, keeping winds
elevated. These winds do not start to really diminish until Monday
night, when the gradient starts to weaken.

.LONG TERM...
Monday a deep low in the western Gulf will bring a wide swath of
southwest winds across the majority of the central and southern
Gulf along with a moderate to strong atmospheric river. Through
Tuesday into Wednesday expect the surface pressure gradient to
weaken, allowing winds to diminish and swell to decrease. Rain
continues. See Marine section for higher detail info.

Early Thursday, attention turns to a possible gale force low
moving north from the coast of Haida Gwaii, with ensembles
highlighting a low transiting along our coast before making
landfall in the Central Panhandle. If ensemble solutions hold the
course this has the potential to be for our first High Wind Watch
of the season for the far southern Panhandle. Mariners planning on
transiting from and to southeast Alaska along the Inside Passage
should take notice, as Dixon Entrance into Clarence Strait are
under the gun to see near 35 knots of southerly wind, with more
extreme outliers suggesting 50 knots. With the position of the low
expect northerly flow in the northern inner channels and easterly
near-gale force coming out of Cross Sound. Don’t anchor on
previous wind forecasts, changes will be made as guidance gets a
better handle on the low depth and location.

Snow levels continue to follow their seasonal normal, dropping
below 5,000ft as we move through the week. No snowfall impacts are
currently anticipated at sea level.

&&

.AVIATION...
Departing system has left IFR to VFR flight conditions across the
panhandle this morning. Anticipating gradual improvement through
early afternoon to predominate VFR conditions with CIGS AoB 5000
to 7000ft for much of the area. VFR conditions on Sunday will be
short- lived as another system moves into the Gulf of Alaska with
rain chances and LLWS increasing from west to east after 00-06z as
front pushes inland. Sustained winds should remain less than
15kts through mid afternoon, increasing through tonight up to
20kts with isolated gusts up to 30kts with strongest winds along
coastal and southern panhandle TAF sites. Likeliest locations for
mechanical turbulence and LLWS across Gulf coast and interior
southern panhandle by Sunday evening into Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
A tightening pressure gradient with the next low will create gale
force winds, organizing out of the southeast, along the gulf
coast and into a few of the inner channels. Highest winds along
the inner channels are expected in Icy Strait, Cross sound, and
Clarence Strait. Winds will stay elevated from Sunday night
through Monday evening before the pressure gradient weakens. The
weakening pressure gradient will allow winds to decrease to fresh
breezes Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Monday into Wednesday will feature a very wet fall storm along
with elevated winds. 24-hour rain totals Monday and also Tuesday
near 2 to 3 inches are expected. Expect the worst conditions to
come in early Monday, featuring 6-hour totals near 1 inch early
Monday morning. Heavy rainfall diminishing as we move into
Tuesday. Rain continues but at more reasonable rates through
Wednesday.

Coordination with Environment Canada highlight the uptick in IVT
and duration of the AR near Haida Gwaii, with both ensemble mean
runs highlighting the potential for an extreme (AR-4) event. While
the highest values are likely to miss us, its close enough to
warrant some concern in the far south including Hyder. For now the
forecasted rain totals represent the most likely outcome.

Coordination with the River Forecast center showcases a rise in
small streams and creeks but at this time, all major rivers look
to remain below flood stage.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-031>035-053-641>643.

&&

SHORT TERM...GJS/EAB
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...NM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1224 PM AKDT SUN SEP 22 2024

AKZ317>332-232030-
CITY AND BOROUGH OF YAKUTAT-MUNICIPALITY OF SKAGWAY-HAINES
BOROUGH AND KLUKWAN-GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-CAPE
FAIRWEATHER TO LISIANSKI STRAIT-CITY AND BOROUGH OF SITKA-
ADMIRALTY ISLAND-CITY AND BOROUGH OF JUNEAU-PETERSBURG BOROUGH-
WESTERN KUPREANOF ISLAND AND KUIU ISLAND-PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND-
CITY AND BOROUGH OF WRANGELL-KETCHIKAN GATEWAY BOROUGH-CITY OF
HYDER-ANNETTE ISLAND-
1224 PM AKDT SUN SEP 22 2024

...HEAVY RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY...

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS APPROACHING
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FROM THE WEST WITH THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE FOCUSED ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. HOWEVER,
LATEST MODE DATA INDICATES THAT THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH AMOUNTS AS MUCH OR
MORE THAN EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

AT PRESENT, RAINFALL ON SUNDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE HEAVIEST FOR
THIS MULTI-DAY EVENT WITH ACCUMULATIONS AS HIGH AS 1.5 INCHES BY
MONDAY MORNING. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL RATES SUCH AS THIS ARE CONSIDERED NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND ARE NOT CONSIDERED TO BE EXCESSIVE. THIS
IS, HOWEVER, THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT RAINY PERIOD OF THE FALL SEASON
AND MAY COME AS A SURPRISE TO SOME. RIVERS, CREEKS, AND STREAMS WILL
RESPOND TO THIS MUCH RAINFALL, WITH MORE FLASHY STREAMS RESPONDING
THE MOST WITH TONIGHT'S RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME, NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.

MOST WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS WELL WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO AS MUCH AS 20 MPH IN INLAND LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 TO 35 MPH NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS ON THE INNER CHANNELS
AND OUTER COAST.

KEEP UP WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND FORECAST UPDATES DURING THIS
EVENT AT WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU.

FREDERICK.FRITSCH