Small Craft Advisory 721, NWS Juneau, AK

033 
FZAK52 PAJK 311244
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
344 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2024

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-010645-
344 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Northerly outflow winds increase in the inner channels through
Tuesday as high pressure builds over the Yukon. Strong breezes
to gale northerlies will persist through the week.  

$$

PKZ641-010645-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision out to 15 NM-
344 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ661-010645-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision from 15 to 90 NM-
344 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ642-010645-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe out to 15 NM-
344 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell late. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ662-010645-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe from 15 to 80 NM-
344 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ643-010645-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Spencer out to 15 NM-
344 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ663-010645-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Spencer from 15 to 80 NM-
344 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ644-010645-
Cape Spencer to Cape Fairweather out to 15 NM-
344 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. S
swell. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ664-010645-
Cape Spencer to Cape Fairweather from 15 to 85 NM-
344 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ651-010645-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape out to 15 NM-
344 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. S swell. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ671-010645-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape from 15 to 80 NM-
344 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. SE swell. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ652-010645-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling out to 15 NM-
344 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. SE swell. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SE swell. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. SE swell. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ672-010645-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling from 15 to 80 NM-
344 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 14 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

744 
FZAK52 PAJK 312303
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
203 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2024

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-011715-
203 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Northerly strong breeze to gale force outflow winds persist in
the inner channels through the week. 

$$

PKZ641-011715-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision out to 15 NM-
203 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell late. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ661-011715-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision from 15 to 90 NM-
203 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ642-011715-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe out to 15 NM-
203 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt in the evening. Seas
12 ft. SW swell late. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ662-011715-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe from 15 to 80 NM-
203 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ643-011715-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Spencer out to 15 NM-
203 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ663-011715-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Spencer from 15 to 80 NM-
203 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ644-011715-
Cape Spencer to Cape Fairweather out to 15 NM-
203 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ664-011715-
Cape Spencer to Cape Fairweather from 15 to 85 NM-
203 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ651-011715-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape out to 15 NM-
203 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ671-011715-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape from 15 to 80 NM-
203 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ652-011715-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling out to 15 NM-
203 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. SE swell. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. S swell. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ672-011715-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling from 15 to 80 NM-
203 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
139 PM AKST Mon Dec 30 2024

.UPDATE...Fog over central panhandle is reducing visibilites to
1/4sm or less in Petersburg and Kake. Given the delayed onset of
outflow winds a dense fog advisory is in effect for those areas
through Tue morning. Additionally, with the slow to tighten
pressure gradient added areas further north through Icy Strait
corridor with fog expected to develop this evening. As mentioned,
the pressure gradient is not responding as quickly as model
guidance for the outflow event. Latest guidance supports a
marginal Taku wind event for the Juneau area. A critical level
will move through the area this evening, but cross barrier flow
doesn't increase until after the critical level. Cross barrier
flow and mdt-strong low level inversion support gusts upto 50-55 mph
for downtown Juneau and Douglas early Tue morning, so cancelled
the high wind watch.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 537 AM AKST Mon Dec 30 2024...

SHORT TERM...// Through Monday night / Mainly Clear skies across
the forecast area this morning, although there are a few areas in
the south central of low clouds and patchy fog. Satellite imagery
shows the fog in Peril Strait and near Tenakee Inlet, around
Kupreanof and Kuiu Island and over the southern portion of Prince
of Wales Island. This includes Ketchikan, Klawock, Craig, and
Wrangell. Some of the fog may be locally dense this morning.

Southeast flow pattern will spread a little moisture into the
southern panhandle overnight that may result into upslope light
rain. PoPs are less that 50 percent for the rain by Tuesday
morning on the Southeast facing slopes. The northern portions of
the panhandle will stay dry and may even stay mostly clear.

High Wind Watch in effect late Monday night through Wednesday
morning for Downtown Juneau, Thane, and Douglas Island with
sustained winds 30 to 40mph with gusts up to 60 mph possible.
Outflow winds will continue to increase through midweek as
pressure gradient increases.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/...Cold temperatures, northerly
outflow winds, with overall dry weather for SE AK into the weekend.
Driving forces at mid levels start out with low pressure south the
the Aleutians and high pressure over the Yukon. As the week
progresses the Yukon high shifts to the south as the Aleutian low
weakens and slides eastward followed by a high pressure ridge.
Surface features get bit more complex. Gale force front extended
from a surface low under the mid level low will cross into the
Eastern Gulf, dissipate as it tracks northward, with another surface
low moving off the Haida Gwaii coast by Thursday. By the weekend as
mid level high pressure ridge moves in watching to see how far north
any remnants of the Haida Gwaii low move and what flows down from
the up stream pattern. As of now precip from any of these systems is
being kept mostly off shore or just over the far Southern Panhandle.
Later in the week less confidence on operational model details and
ensembles have the general swath of chance precip. Pressure gradient
for outflow winds shifts as the gulf lows and Canadian highs move
but overall keeping significant northerly gradient into the end of
the week and possibly into the weekend. Inside water wave heights
remain elevated due to the long fetch. As for temps: cold for
central and northern locations with some milder but still seasonably
cool temps to the south. As usual the tricky part is when precip
finally moves in will we stay cold enough for snow to be sustained.
Op models show pretty warm air mass with any fronts that might make
it in and ensembles showing a similar trend. Synoptic weather pattern
has been consistent past few model runs and getting fair agreement
with mid level flow. Surface features are another story, having
increased spread starting pretty much by Tuesday. With all that
said, limited changes were made to the previous forecast.

AVIATION...Outflow pattern keeps majority of panhandle clear with
northerly winds picking up in the inner channels, as well as some
easterly gap winds in the central panhandle. Chance for continued
WS due to ridge top winds in the Juneau area out of the NE,
increasing Monday afternoon and evening. Down south, Ketchikan has
some advection fog that will stick around the area until
southerly winds pick up later in the day. Sheltered parts of the
central panhandle can also expect continued low stratus until
winds allow for mixing later in the day. Late tonight some light
rain/snow showers could produce MVFR conditions for the far
southern panhandle.

MARINE...Offshore flow in place for the northern inner channels
with flow out of the gaps increasing overnight for the northeast
gulf coast and like Cross Sound wind increasing to Small Craft
level of 25 to 30 kt. With the persistent north winds added the
fully developed seas in Lynn Canal. Small Craft for the outer
coastal areas mainly from residual seas. Although there is band of
stronger winds approaching the eastern half of the gulf.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Tuesday
     for AKZ320-321-324-325.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through Tuesday
     afternoon for AKZ325.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ326-327.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-664.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-031>033-035-053-641>644-651-
     652-661>663-671-672.

&&

UPDATE...BC
SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...Bezenek

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