Wind Advisory 46, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
457 AM AKDT Fri Oct 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Quiet, seasonable weather will prevail across much of the Central
and Eastern Interior through today, with some sunshine and
increasing winds before a strong trough brings accumulating snow
to areas north of the Tanana Valley Saturday into early Sunday.
Heavy snow accumulation is possible for the Dalton Highway from
Atigun Pass to Prudhoe Bay east through Kaktovik. Gusty
Northeasterly winds will also develop over the higher terrain of
the Interior Friday and Saturday. Meanwhile northerly flow will
increase in strength over the Bering Strait and Saint Lawrence
Island this weekend, along with the potential for heavier snow
showers throughout that corridor.

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Level Analysis...

While the entire state of Alaska remains under the influence of a
long wave trough, the primary feature on this afternoons analysis
is a deepening upper low tracking eastward across the southern
Bering Sea in route to a position in the north central Gulf of
Alaska by this weekend. This low upper low will eventually bottom
out at with a depth of about 504 dam before eventually starting to
fill late in the weekend. As this primary closed low begins to
weaken, an impressive shortwave trough will get ejected northward
from the low center and will track over the Interior Saturday and
eventually form another potent 516 closed upper low over the
eastern Beaufort Sea by Sunday evening. This feature will begin to
depart early next week but will be followed by another wave of
upper energy dropping south and east through northern Alaska, thus
keeping the region under the long wave trough pattern for several
days to come.

Central and Eastern Interior...

A generally quiet and seasonable day is expected for the Central
and Eastern Interior. MODIS satellite imagery shows the low
stratus and fog deck gradually eroding across the Fairbanks area
as dry low- level northeast flow increases ever so slightly. This
trend will continue as we head into the day with much of the area
expected to see some sunshine with winds gradually increasing
through the day. Gusty Northeast winds will eventually develop
over higher terrain of the Northern Interior and Eastern Alaska
Range late today into Saturday, as well as a decent Tanana Valley
Jet near Delta Junction.

Late Tonight into Saturday... Precipitation will develop in
response to a strong shortwave trough ejecting northward from the
Strong Gulf of Alaska low. Fairbanks south may receive limited
precipitation with potential for a rain/snow mix as temperatures
hover near or just above freezing. The north side of town
northwards into the White Mountains, Yukon Flats, and southern
Brooks Range will receive accumulating snow, likely the most of
the season thus far. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for
the Dalton Highway Summits where 4 to 8 inches of snow is
expected. The snow will peak during Saturday evening and early
overnight Sunday before tapering off in wake of the trough.

Sunday will see a return back to more quiet weather with
seasonable temperatures and a chance for some sunshine.

West Coast and Western Interior...

As the strong Bering Sea low continues to move to a final
position in the northern Gulf of Alaska, strong northerly winds
will gust up to 60 mph across St Lawrence Island, the Bering
Strait and the YK Delta Coast. There will be elevated water
offshore and high wave heights but not expecting coastal flooding
due to the northerly wind direction. There will be occasional snow
squalls producing low visibility. Winds will gradually weaken
during the day Sunday as the storm weakens in the Gulf of Alaska.
A High Wind Watch has been issued for the Seward Peninsula, where
gusts up to 60 mph may be possible from Wales to Nome and areas in
between, along the higher terrain.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

A shortwave trough and cold northwest flow off the Arctic
rotating into Utqiagvik will continue to bring scattered snow
showers to that region through the day with little to no snow
accumulation expected. Meanwhile a much more potent shortwave
trough will lift northeastward across the Brooks Range over the
weekend setting the stage for more impactful weather conditions,
especially for the central and eastern Brooks range and areas
along the North Slope east of Utqiagvik.

A Winter Storm Warning has now been issued for heavy snowfall
expected this weekend across portions of the E Brooks Range and
Eastern North Slope. The upper shortwave will form into a closed
upper low over the eastern Beaufort Sea with a surface low
developing along the AK/YT border. Strong northerly flow
developing on the west side of this low will push abundant
moisture from a still unfrozen ocean surface and eventually colder
air onshore and up the higher terrain of the Brooks Range. 24-48
hours of continuous snowfall for Atigun Pass on the Dalton and
nearby areas will likely yield over a foot of snowfall. Combined
with windy conditions, visibility will be significantly reduced at
times.

Closer to shore from Prudhoe Bay to Kaktovik, heavy snow is
expected there as well. Strong northerly flow developing on the
backside of the system may bring gusts upwards of 40 mph which
will reduce visibility, possibly significantly at times.

Snow will gradually taper downwards early in the week, but a
lingering upper-level trough and very cold air flowing off the
Arctic will promote light snow showers through at least the first
half of the week.D

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...

The extended period will feature yet another trough dropping out
of the Chukchi Sea and crossing much of the state, which in turn
will continue accumulating snow chances into early next week,
including portions of the Central Interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ804-805-808-809.
     High Wind Watch for AKZ820>823.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ832.

PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ802.
     Gale Warning for PKZ803>805-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807-810-811-856-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ855.
&&

Brown

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