Wind Advisory 38, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
227 PM AKDT Fri Aug 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Milder temperatures have arrived across interior Alaska and near
normal conditions are expected over the weekend and the upcoming
work week.  Tomorrow looks like the driest day for much of the
Central and Eastern Interior, but a Bering Sea Low will approach the
YK Delta tomorrow afternoon resulting in high wind, heavy rain and
high winds for the west Coast and Western Interior. Winds will
increase late Saturday afternoon in the Alaska Range ahead of the
system moving ashore in southwest Alaska.  A High Wind Watch has
been issued starting Saturday evening for Delta Junction and the
Eastern Alaska Range north of Trims camp.  South winds 30 to 40 mph
with gusts up to 70 mph are possible. Winds should diminish late
Sunday. Rain should overspread the Central and Eastern Interior
Sunday. Monday and Tuesday look drier as a ridge builds in from the
southwest.

.DISCUSSION...
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...

The synoptic pattern aloft  consists of a strongly positively tilted
545 dam trough from the Arctic, across far western Siberia to near
Adak in the western Aleutians. A strong ridge remains in place over
the Northwest Territories resulting in southerly flow across most of
Alaska. A deepening 540 dam low over the Bering Sea will approach St
Paul Island midday Saturday  and reach the West Coast near Kuskokwim
Bay as a 536 dam low. The attendant surface low is forecast to be
around 988 mb. The upper level low will quickly track across the
Central Interior Saturday night to near Ambler midday then into the
Beaufort Sea Sunday night. The Surface low will take a track a bit
farther south and east from near Aniak to Tanana to Arctic Village
during the same general time frame.  A weak ridge will build across
the Seward Peninsula and Western Interior in the wake of this system
early next week.  By midweek, guidance suggests a strong ridge
building across mainland Alaska with 560 dam heights as far north as
the Prudhoe Bay.

Models...

Models initialized well and are in good agreement current conditions
as well as the upcoming storm system moving out of the Bering Sea
and across the state over the weekend. Concensus is improving on the
placement of the surface low (near 988mb) as it moves onshore
between Goodnews Bay and Quinhagak.  Models are also in good
agreement that a strong high will build across mainland Alaska
during the early to middle part of next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

Weak high pressure will build over the Beaufort Sea today and
tomorrow resulting in general onshore flow east of Prudhoe Bay and
offshore west of Nuiqsut. Flow will likely be more parallel to the
coast from Barrow to Point Lay.  The high will slide east by Sunday
resulting in onshore flow for most of the northern coast.  Fog looks
like a good bet tonight and tomorrow night especially from Barrow
east to the Yukon. Cooler temperatures have returned to the region.
Expect highs in the 50s to near 60 in the Arctic Plains and eastern
and central Beaufort Sea coast, with upper 40s to lower 50s west
through the weekend. An upper low will likely enhance rain showers
across eastern portions of the Brooks Range and northwest Alaska
Sunday afternoon into early Monday.  The western portions of the
Brooks Range and North Slope look mostly dry Sunday into early next
week.

West Coast and Western Interior... Deteriorating conditions are
expected over the next 24 hours as a Bering Sea Low approaches
Southwest Alaska.  Rain will spread inland overnight and continue
Saturday.  Rainfall totals are expected to reach a tenth to a
quarter of an inch tonight along the coast, and additional quarter
to half an inch of rain in the favored upslope areas of the south
slopes of the Western Brooks Range and the Noatak Valley. Southeast
winds will increase to 15-25 mph tomorrow, strongest south of
Sheldon Point. Winds shift to the northwest Saturday night into
Sunday morning as the low moves onshore.  Heavy rainfall may reach
one inch across much of the region Saturday through early Sunday. A
drier pattern is expected to return to the region early next week as
high pressure builds across the area.

Central and Eastern Interior... Rainy conditions should come to an
end tonight with only a few light showers Saturday. Heavier rain
will return Sunday as a low tracks from the YK Delta to near Tanana
to Arctic Village. Rainfall totals should remain below one half of
an inch. Strong and gusty southerly winds develop Saturday evening
in the Alaska Range passes extending north to Delta Junction. A Wind
Watch is in effect late Saturday through early Sunday. South winds
of 30 to 40 mph are expected to develop with wind gusts as high as
70 mph. Winds should diminish Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will
remain mild through the weekend. Expect highs in the mid to upper
50s across the Upper Koyukuk Valley, 70s from Eagle south along the
ALCAN border. A drier pattern is expected to return to the region
next week as high pressure builds across the area.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...

The extended period begins Monday with an upper level trough draped
across Mainland Alaska. This trough gets shunted northeastward as an
upper level low moving south out of the high Arctic drops south
across Siberia to the western Bering Sea. Deterministic models and
ensembles support the development of this Bering Sea trough and
subsequently a Mainland upper ridge by mid-week. Sensible weather
wise, precip will spread east across the Interior, as the initial
upper level trough lifts northeast. Drier conditions develop across
northern Alaska Tuesday into Wednesday as ridging moves east. The
quiet conditions are only temporary as the next low approaches the
West Coast Thursday into Friday, bringing another round of rain and
wind.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather season looks to be coming to an end across Alaska.
Cooler and wetter conditions are anticipated through the weekend as
an upper level trough lifts northeast across northern Alaska.
Temperatures will remain mild with abundant moisture across most of
the State.  There is a slight chance of thunderstorms this evening
between Selawik and Bettles and north of Huslia to the Brooks Range.
Strong and gusty southerly winds develop in the Alaska Range again
late Saturday, continuing into Sunday afternoon. South winds of 30
to 40 mph are expected with gusts up to 70 mph possible in the
eastern Alaska Range Passes north of Trims Camp to Delta Junction.
This southerly flow will result in drier conditions Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Runoff working its way into the Tanana River through the weekend may
push the Tanana River at Fairbanks to action stage. In the higher
terrain of the Alaska Range, rainfall totals of an inch to an inch
and a half are possible through Saturday night. This will cause
rivers and streams in these areas to rise. South of the Seward
Peninsula and east to the Upper Kuskokwim Valley expect half an inch
to three quarters of an inch of rain Saturday to Saturday night.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Wind Watch for AKZ837-849.
PK...None.
&&