Wind Advisory 35, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
222 PM AKDT Sat Aug 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge building over the southeast Interior will bring a sharp
pattern change to the Interior, bringing in warm temperatures and
sunny skies. The West Coast will then become the center of the
rainfall action with 3.5 to 4.5 inches of rain expected in the
Kigluaik Mountains north of Nome through Tuesday night. Strong
southerly winds will also bring high surf to the West Coast. The
North Slope will also warm to well above normal through Wednesday,
with light rain expected mainly from Utqiagvik west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Analysis...
A weak shortwave is moving across the Western and Central
Interior this afternoon, bringing additional rainfall. This will
be short lived though as a strong ridge of high pressure aloft is
expected to build north from the Gulf of Alaska this evening,
bringing much above normal temperatures to the Central and Eastern
Interior and parts of the North Slope Sunday through Wednesday. A
vertically stacked area of low pressure will move west off of
Kamchatka this afternoon, bringing additional rainfall to the West
Coast. This feature will slide east to the Gulf of Anadyr,
bringing strong southerly flow aloft across the Alaska and Brooks
Ranges beginning Monday night. Surface gradients as high as 9 mb
across the Alaska Range with upper level support up to 500 mb will
bring strong southerly Chinook winds through Alaska Range Passes
with gusts up to 50 mph or higher beginning Monday afternoon. A
High Wind Watch is out for this area. Additional shortwaves will
continue to bring precipitation to the West Coast during this
period.

Central and Eastern Interior...Rain will taper off this afternoon
with clearing skies expected overnight. Temperatures Sunday will
rise to the mid to upper 70s and into the 80s on Monday and
Tuesday. Wednesday will be slightly cooler but still well above
normal. Strong southerly Chinook winds will develop through Alaska
Range passes on Monday night and continue through Wednesday. A
High Wind Watch is out for this timeframe for gusts as high as 60
mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...Very rainy and windy conditions
are expected along the West Coast especially near Nome. Precip
amounts of 3.5 to 4 inches are possible through Tuesday night near
Nome with even higher amounts in the mountains to the north. Most
of the West Coast will see 1 to 2 inches of rain in this
timeframe, with upslope areas including north of Ambler, near Red
Dog Mine, and north of Brevig Mission will see 2 to 4 inches.
Southerly winds 25 to 35 mph along the coast through Sunday night
will bring water levels to 1 to 4 feet above the normal high tide
line, and slightly higher in eastern Norton Sound. Nome may see
4 feet above the normal high tide line, and combined with elevated
runoff amounts on the Snake River, have updgraded the High Surf
Advisory to a Coastal Flood Advisory, particularly for the Belmont
Subdivision. The rest of the Western Interior will see mainly
showers and lighter winds. Temperatures will be mainly in the 50s
along the coast and in the 60s and lower 70s inland.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Southerly winds and warming
temperatures are expected across the area as the ridge builds in
and southerly flow develops aloft. This should clear any remaining
stratus and bring just high clouds and mostly sunny skies east of
Utqiagvik, though the Brooks Range passes could see gusts to 40
mph during the day Sunday. Temperatures will be mainly in the 60s
on Sunday before rising to the 70s east of Utqiagvik Monday-
Wednesday. From Utqiagvik west, expect more seasonable highs in
the 50s with areas of stratus and light rain.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Elevated water levels
along the West Coast will slowly fall to normal levels by Tuesday
afternoon.

Extended Forecast For Days 4 Through 7...Strong southerly flow
aloft looks to persist through next week, bringing a mix of
showers and sun. Temperatures will be near normal across the area.
Expect periods of strong south winds through Alaska and Brooks
Range Passes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...While the West Coast will be quite wet, a building
ridge of high pressure will warm areas across the Central and
Eastern Interior to well above normal temperatures Sunday through
Wednesday. Monday looks to be the warmest day with mid to upper
80s expected across the Tanana Valley and also the Yukon Flats.
Strong southerly Chinook winds are expected through Alaska Range
passes beginning late Monday evening and persisting through much
of next week. While areas will certainly meet critical conditions
for temperatures and winds, relative humidities still show a very
low probability of dropping beneath 25% anywhere across the
northern part of Alaska, thus concern for Red Flag conditions is
low. Outside of the Alaska Range passes, the rest of the Interior
does not look to be particularly windy except for a brief period
Monday evening at the onset of the southerly flow aloft.
Temperatures return to more seasonable values Thursday as the
ridge of high pressure aloft is shoved east and southerly flow
continues.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rain across the West Coast through early next week,
particularly across the southern Seward Peninsula will lead to
rising water on all rivers and streams draining the Kigluaik and
Bendeleben Mountains including the Niukluk and Snake Rivers. A
Flood Watch is in effect for these areas. Moderate rainfall across
the Chena and Chatanika River basins will lead to rising water on
those rivers for Sunday, though the Chena and Chatanika are only
expected to briefly reach bankfull conditions on Sunday before
falling early in the work week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Wind Watch for AKZ847-849.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ815-817-821-824-825-827.
     Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ822.
     Flood Watch for AKZ822-823.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801.
     Gale Warning for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803>805-809-810-855.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850-853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

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