Wind Advisory 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

414 
WWAK72 PAFG 051204
NPWWCZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
304 AM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

AKZ828-051315-
/O.EXP.PAFG.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-240105T1200Z/
Lower Koyukuk Valley-
Including the cities of Huslia and Hughes
304 AM AKST Fri Jan 5 2024

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...


$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
231 PM AKST Thu Jan 4 2024

.DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather pattern continues through the end of the week and
into next week, as a series of strong low pressure systems move
into the Bering Sea. The current storm over the Bering Sea
continues to decrease in intensity as it approaches Bristol Bay.
With this, conditions throughout the area are slowly improving.
The strong pressure gradient that was in place between the high
pressure in the Beaufort and the low in the Bering continues to
ease up as well, which is resulting in winds slowly trending
downward. Blizzard conditions remain for those along the Arctic
Coast, specifically east of Utqiagvik. Strong winds remain across
the West Coast, as well as gusty winds across Interior summits.
Yesterday, winds as high as 50-60 mph were common for a few areas
along the Norton Sound. Fortunately, winds have dropped about
10-20 mph since then. Another strong low pressure system is
forecast to move into the Eastern Bering Sea this weekend,
bringing strong winds once again, along with the potential for
falling and blowing snow from the Bering Strait south.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...

Strong low pressure system over the Bering Sea continues to
dissipate through the next 24 hours, as it approaches Bristol Bay.
At 500 mb, a 536 dam (decameter) ridge remains over the Beaufort
Sea, stretching southwest into the Yukon Territory, with a 498 dam
low over centered just north of the Aleutian Islands. A shortwave
trough of low pressure continues to push through the Northern
Interior today, deepening to a 500-505 dam low this evening, as it
passes over the Seward Peninsula and towards St Lawrence Island.
With this system, a frontal boundary has been draped over the
Interior, resulting in light snow showers throughout. This
deepening wave will elongate the strong upper ridge over the
Arctic Ocean, with a north/south orientation by late weekend.

At the surface, the low over the southern Bering Sea continues to
weaken quicker as it approaches Bristol Bay, now sitting at 954
mb, while the surface high in the Beaufort Sea has weakened to
1034 mb. Along the Northern Slope, we also have a weak surface
trough, which has enhanced low level winds the last few days, but
has since started to weaken from the west as well. The low in the
Bering Sea will continue to decrease in intensity as it moves east
over the next 24 hours, with complete dissipation by Friday
night. The weather front slowly continues to traverse through the
Interior, which may lead to enhancements in the wind field along
and ahead of it, due to a localized enhancement in the pressure
gradient. The surface high to the north will remain over the
Beaufort Sea through the end of the week, weakening to 1030 mb or
less by Saturday. Another strong low moves northeast over the
north Pacific and towards the western Aleutians late Friday night
into Saturday. Guidance continues to come together with this
storm, currently holding the low pressure center well off of the
West Coast, with possible impacts mainly on the West Coast and St
Lawrence Island.

North Slope and Brooks Range…

Blizzard conditions continue this afternoon along the Arctic
coast, east of Utqiagvik. Through the day, winds have started to
decrease, resulting in a gradual increase in visibility. Low
pressure trough is still situated across the Northern Slope,
decreasing in intensity slowly from the west. With the pressure
trough still in place and the approaching weather front from the
south, we can see a localized enhancement in the low level wind
field, where we may see an increase in surface winds along the
Arctic Coast this afternoon and evening. These conditions are
expected to prevail into Friday, with conditions improving mid-
late Friday as the pressure gradient significantly decreases in
intensity. With the easing of the pressure gradient, we are not
expecting the winds to be as strong as they were the previous
days, mainly forecasting between 40-50 mph gusts. Winds have
decreased east towards Utqiagvik this morning, where visibility
has also improved. Thus, we have canceled the Blizzard Warning for
those areas this morning and issued a Winter Weather Advisory to
cover any remaining blowing snow and low visibility. Clear to
mostly clear skies will prevail through Friday.

West Coast and Western Interior…

Strong east to northeasterly winds remain along the West Coast
and Western Interior, thanks to the low in the Bering Sea.
Fortunately, this low continues to weaken, easing on the pressure
gradient in place. Thus, winds have started to diminish through
the day, with gusts hovering around 30-40 mph for most. This is
much different when compared to the 50-60 mph winds seen
yesterday! With this, the blowing snow threat has also decreased
quite a bit, which will allow much of the winter headlines to
expire this afternoon and evening. The weather front continues to
slowly traverse north through the area, which can still lead to
localized enhancements in the winds. Although, confidence remains
low on this. This weekend, we will see another strong low pressure
system move into the Bering Sea, which has the potential to bring
gusty winds once again, resulting in possible blowing snow. Also,
we can see falling snow along the West Coast and towards St
Lawrence Island. Guidance continues to hone in on a solution,
which keeps the bulk of the system offshore. Although, we may see
impacts from it in these locations, where headlines may be
necessary once again by week’s end.

Central and Eastern Interior…

The strong pressure gradient across northern Alaska will maintain
gusty east to northeast winds across the region, especially over
summits. Summits along the Dalton Highway will gusts upwards to
40-50 mph into the evening, while further south along the Steese
Highway, wind gusts upwards to 40 mph are expected. These winds
will result in visibility reductions, along with blowing and
drifting snow. Also, with a frontal boundary passing through the
area, we are also seeing light falling snow, which will help
reduce visibility in areas as well. We have opted to extend the
winter headlines in the Central Interior to account for continued
snowfall and blowing snow through the evening and tonight. The
Tanana Valley Jet continues to blast through the valley,
generating winds upwards to 40-50 mph. This will persist through
Friday, but the strongest winds have passed through and the winds
will continue to diminish tonight. Cloud cover has increased and
will continue to fill the sky through today/tonight, as the
weather front passes through.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7…

Active weather pattern continues through the weekend and into
next week, as another strong low moves north out of the northern
Pacific and into the Bering Sea Saturday night into Sunday. This
low has the potential to bring another round of strong winds from
the Seward Peninsula south, as well as falling and blowing snow.
Last few model runs have come into better agreement on the path of
the system, keeping the bulk of it off shore. This would leave
the largest impacts situated over the West Coast and into St
Lawrence Island, where falling/blowing snow and strong winds
return. This will be the next system to watch, as it may lead to
necessary headlines once again.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801>803.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ828.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ804-808.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ831-832.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ834.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-808-809-812-813-853-855-858-859.
     Gale Warning for PKZ804-805-817-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-851-852-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Gale Warning for PKZ814-815-860-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
&&