Wind Advisory 17, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
344 AM AKDT Mon Apr 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Winter has returned with a vengeance as blizzard conditions
blasted the West Coast the last couple days with north winds to 60
mph. The arctic front responsible will shift inland today through
Tuesday night, and will bring snow squalls and colder arctic air
back into the Interior, as well. Next, attention shifts to a
strong Bering Sea front which moves inland across the West Coast
Tuesday and Tuesday night, bringing widespread snow and blowing
snow, along with possible mixed precipitation along the YK Delta
to Norton Sound.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a large and elongated arctic trough stretching from the N
Chukchi Sea to the West Coast and down through Bristol Bay.
Heights at the center of this trough are around 494 dam. There is
a 513 dam Pacific low centered over Kodiak Island with a shortwave
trough rotating across the N Gulf Coast. The remnants of the deep
low which moved inland yesterday morning is now in the NW
Territory and moving east. There is a weak trough axis aloft over
the Arctic Coast with a surface low underneath it, analyzed
around 998 mb over Prudhoe Bay. The leading arctic front is
surging inland across the W Interior.

Model Discussion...
The numerical weather models and their suite of ensemble guidance
are in good agreement now through the next 3 days, as is the ECMWF
AI/ML model. There is good agreement now that the arctic front
surges east and will merge with the aforementioned shortwave
trough over the Gulf of AK, bringing increased chances for
Interior snow and blowing snow/falling temps Monday evening
through Tuesday. The next front moving into the West Coast is also
fairly tightly clustered with minimal discrepancy. The favored
model was the NAM nest for winds, Canadian and NAM for precip, and
a blend of models for temps.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Light snow showers are still ongoing over the White Mtns to the
Tanana Valley this morning, but will quickly end by midday. An
arctic front currently over the Yukon Valley shifts into the
Central Interior today, and then the remainder of the Interior
overnight. A low from the Gulf of AK will supply moisture north,
with colder air moving in from the west, which should result in a
good setup for snow and blowing snow to occur as the front shifts
east. Steep lapse rates, strong cold air advection, and favorable
moisture profiles will likely result in snow squalls, with the
best chance for significantly reduced visibility from Lake
Minchumina across the Parks Highway from Healy to Fairbanks, and
across the White Mtns. Snow amounts will not be high, but snow
showers may be heavy at times, with 1 to 3 inches of wind blown
snow possible. Snow showers shift east and north through Tuesday,
with blowing snow moving up to the Upper Tanana Valley with
northwest winds 20 to 35 mph.

Tuesday night will be below zero again as skies partially clear,
but they rebound Wednesday as clouds stream in from the west and
chances for snow move back into the Interior as a Bering front
shifts inland. Potential snow amounts will be 1 to 3 inches from
the White Mtns north and west.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The blizzard as mostly coming to an end as the gradient is slowly
relaxing along the coast. The one holdout will be across Kotzebue
Sound into Buckland and the Selawik Valley where blowing snow
will continue this afternoon. Cold high pressure settles in over
the region tonight and attention then turns to a fast moving
Bering front which reaches the West Coast Tuesday and Tuesday
night, bringing widespread snow and blowing snow with gale force
winds from the YK Delta to Norton Sound. Blizzard conditions will
be possible again, this time with heavy falling snow as the front
moves inland, although it will be rather short-lived and most
blowing snow is ending by Wednesday midday. There is a chance for
brief mix to rain and snow over the YK Delta and Saint Lawrence
Island, but most of the precip over the West Coast will fall as
snow, with a broad area of 4 to 6 inches of snow, locally heavier
across the Seward Peninsula higher elevations, through Wednesday
night. Accumulating snowfall will continue into the late week with
additional snowfall accumulations.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Light snowfall over the Arctic Coast is shifting offshore as the
low producing it moves north. Winds around the low today switch
around to westerly 15 to 30 mph with fairly strong cold air
advection sweeping east. Blowing snow is likely through Tuesday
morning, although it looks to remain above hazard criteria (one
half mile or less). Expect wind chills to drop to -40 F by this
evening and overnight.

Yet another front brings more snow and blowing snow to the Brooks
Range passes and then Arctic coast Wednesday, with south winds
through the Brooks Range Passes 15 to 35 mph and east winds along
the coast.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Bering Sea westerly flow dominates Thursday as a trough is
shifting inland, bringing snow to pretty much the entire Mainland.
This pattern will gradually shift south during the weekend, but
chances of snow will remain as some form of arctic troughing
persists to the north and moisture streams north from the
Bering/Pacific. Overall temps look fairly seasonal if not slightly
above norms over the southern half of the Mainland...with the
coldest air remaining bottled up over the Arctic.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Southwest winds increase
along the YK Delta into Norton Sound Wednesday night and Thursday
as a Bering low moves to near Saint Lawrence Island. This may
bring elevated water levels of 2 to 3 feet above the normal high
tideline, although since ice is in place, it will likely just mean
water seeping through cracks in the ice nearshore.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ817-818.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ821.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ822.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ823.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ823.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ825.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ827.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-812-817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-810.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802-816.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-804-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ805-806-852>854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-856-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809-855.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
&&

Ahsenmacher