Wind Advisory 13, NWS Fairbanks, AK

061 
WWAK73 PAFG 230152
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
552 PM AKDT Fri Mar 22 2024

AKZ849-230300-
/O.EXP.PAFG.WI.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-240323T0200Z/
Eastern Alaska Range North of Trims Camp-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
and The Richardson Highway from MP 224 to MP 259
552 PM AKDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

Winds have diminished below advisory criteria, therefore the Wind
Advisory will be allowed to expire. Gusty winds to 40 to 50 mph 
will continue for the next few hours across the Eastern Alaska 
Range before diminishing.



$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
521 AM AKDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

An active weather pattern will persist into the weekend for the
west coast of Alaska as a as series of fronts will bring periods
of strong winds, snow and mixed precipitation as well. By Sunday
morning, expect Gale force winds through the Bering Strait and at
St. Lawrence Island along with possible blizzard conditions as a
strong low moves to near the Pribilof Islands with high pressure
still in place over the Chukotsk Peninsula. Elsewhere, mostly dry
conditions with above normal temperatures for the Interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Analysis and Model Discussion...

A strong ridge aloft pushing north from the North Pacific remains
parked over the central and eastern Interior while numerous
shortwaves and frontal systems ride the west side of the ridge
north along the west coast. A warm front is currently bringing
widespread rain from the Yukon Delta north all the way to Point
Lay. Snow is still mixing with the rain in some locations, but the
primary precipitation type this morning is rain. The warm front
will push north out of the area late tonight, which will be
followed by the longest break in weather systems on the west coast
in a number of days. The next system to impact the west coast will
be a warm front from a 974 mb low near the Pribilof Islands. This
will bring mixed precipitation south of the Seward Peninsula, snow
from the Seward Peninsula north, and strong Gale force winds
through the Bering Strait late Saturday through Monday as a strong
upper level Arctic trough drops south from the Chukchi Sea. The
Interior will remain quiet and warmer than normal. There is a very
slight chance of mixed precipitation Friday night as far east as
Fairbanks, but any precipitation that falls will be extremely
light and short lived.

Models are in good agreement until Sunday afternoon, when major
differences begin to develop on just how strong and how far south
the Arctic trough drops over the west coast. By Monday morning,
differences are even more pronounced. Models are still in
remarkably good agreement on precipitation amounts and placement
despite their differences aloft and on surface features. For the
forecast, we'll use a blend of models, but trend winds on the west
coast toward the similar and stronger ECMWF and Canadian
solutions Saturday afternoon through Sunday night.

Central and Eastern Interior...

Quiet weather with well above normal temperatures will continue
through Monday. There is a very slight chance of mixed
precipitation Friday night as far east as Fairbanks, but any
precipitation that falls will be extremely light and short lived.
Winds will be 15 mph or less, except for southerly gap winds
gusting up to 40 mph intermittently through this afternoon and
again Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Highs will be
mostly in the 30s except in the mid 40s in the middle Tanana
Valley. Lows will be in the teens and 20s.

West Coast and Western Interior...

A mixed bag of precipitation continues this morning as a warm
front pushes north across the west coast. Precipitation may reach
as far east as Tanana this afternoon. By Saturday morning, expect
mainly dry conditions for what will be a short lived break between
weather systems. On Saturday afternoon, precipitation from the
next warm front moving north will reach the Yukon Delta, and will
reach the Seward Peninsula overnight Saturday night. By Sunday
morning, expect Gale force winds through the Bering Strait and at
St. Lawrence Island along with possible blizzard conditions as the
strong low moves to near the Pribilof Islands with high pressure
still in place over the Chukotsk Peninsula. Precipitation and wind
from this system will continue through Monday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

Quiet conditions, above normal temperatures, and mainly light
winds continue. Winds through Brooks Range passes and out to
Toolik Lake on the north side of the Brooks Range will continue to
gust to 30 mph through tonight. High temperatures will peak today
with most areas reaching the 30s except for along the coast from
Utqiagvik east where highs will be in the 20s. A cooling trend
will begin tomorrow with highs returning to the single digits
above zero north of the Brooks Range by Sunday. Highs in the
Brooks Range will stay in the 20s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast For Days 4 Through 7...

The pattern into the middle to late part of next week is quite
messy and models show significant differences. Models do agree on
a somewhat stationary cold core closed low residing in the
southern Bering Sea or Bristol Bay regions with weak ridging over
the central and eastern Interior. This should bring scattered
light precipitation across most of the state with slightly above
normal temperatures to the central and eastern Interior and the
North Slope and slightly below normal temperatures to the west
coast.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ814.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ823.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803>805-809-810-852-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
&&

CHRIEST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
904 AM AKDT Fri Mar 22 2024

AKZ821-822-824>827-231400-
Bering Strait Coast-Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-Yukon Delta Coast-
Lower Yukon River-St Lawrence Island-
Including Wales, Brevig Mission, Teller, Nome, White Mountain,
Golovin, Unalakleet, Stebbins, St Michael, Elim, Koyuk,
Shaktoolik, Mountain Village, Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik,
Scammon Bay, Hooper Bay, Nunam Iqua, Chevak, Russian Mission,
St Marys, Pilot Station, Marshall, Gambell, and Savoonga
904 AM AKDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...Active Weather Through the Weekend for the West Coast...

On Saturday afternoon, precipitation from the next frontal system
will reach the Yukon Delta, and then the Seward Peninsula
overnight Saturday night. Snow and blowing snow and also mixed
precipitation is possible. By Sunday morning, expect Gale force
winds through the Bering Strait and at St. Lawrence Island along
with possible blizzard conditions. The strongest winds will be
along the Bering Strait and along the Yukon Delta Coast.
Precipitation and wind from this system will continue through
Monday.

Special Weather Statement...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
946 AM AKDT Fri Mar 22 2024

AKZ821-822-824>827-231400-
Bering Strait Coast-Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
Eastern Norton Sound and Nulato Hills-Yukon Delta Coast-
Lower Yukon River-St Lawrence Island-
Including Wales, Brevig Mission, Teller, Nome, White Mountain,
Golovin, Unalakleet, Stebbins, St Michael, Elim, Koyuk,
Shaktoolik, Mountain Village, Emmonak, Alakanuk, Kotlik,
Scammon Bay, Hooper Bay, Nunam Iqua, Chevak, Russian Mission,
St Marys, Pilot Station, Marshall, Gambell, and Savoonga
946 AM AKDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...Active Weather Through the Weekend for the West Coast...

On Saturday afternoon, precipitation from the next frontal system
will reach the Yukon Delta, and then the Seward Peninsula
overnight Saturday night into Sunday. Snow and blowing snow and
also mixed precipitation is possible. By Sunday morning, expect
Gale force winds through the Bering Strait and at St. Lawrence
Island along with possible blizzard conditions. The strongest
winds will be along the Bering Strait and along the Yukon Delta
Coast. Precipitation and wind from this system will continue
through Monday.