Wind Advisory 11, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
624 AM AKST Tue Feb 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist and warm southerly flow over Alaska will continue into Wed,
then turn southwest and cool on Thu, then become westerly and
much cooler by weekend. This means the current much warmer than
normal pattern over Northern AK will continue into Wed, then cool
to near normal by the weekend.

Blizzard conditions over NW AK will continue into tonight.

Strong southerly chinook winds blowing across the Alaska Range
will continue into Wed.

There will be significant snow over Western Alaska and the South
Slopes of the AK Range today, that will spread to the North Slope
and Central Interior tonight, and then across the Eastern Interior
on Wed. There will be a chance of mixed precip SE of McGrath to
Huslia to Ft Yukon today. Western Alaska can expected 4 to 8
inches of snow through tonight from McGrath to Galena to Ambler.
Expect snow 2-4 inches along the South Slopes of the AK Range and
today into Wed, with 2-4 inches over the Central Interior and North Slope
tonight into Wed, and with several inches over the Eastern Interior.

Another batch of snow moves into SW Alaska on Wed, over the West
Coast and Western Interior on Wed night, and then northeast to NW
Alaska and the Central and Eastern Interior on Thu. This will
bring another 2-4 inches of snow to the West Coast and Western
Interior on Wed into Thu.

Aloft... The long wave pattern consists of a deep long wave
trough over NE Russia, the Sea of Okhotsk and Bering Sea, and a
long wave ridge over Alaska and NW Canada. This pattern will hold
in place through Wed, then become progressive through the end of
the week as a series of strong short wave troughs move from the
Bering Sea NE across Alaska digging into the ridge and pulling the
long wave trough east over Mainland Alaska by the weekend. This
means the current much warmer than normal pattern over Northern AK
will continue into Wed, then cool to near normal by the weekend.

Moist southerly flow over Alaska will continue into Wed then turn
southwest on Thu. This will cause significant precipitation over
Western Alaska and South Slopes of the AK Range today, that will
spread to the North Slope and Central Interior tonight, and then
across the Eastern Interior on Wed. Another batch of precip moves
into SW Alaska on Wed, over the West Coast and Western Interior on
Wed night, and then northeast to NW Alaska and the Central and
Eastern Interior on Thu.

Surface...
A 978 mb low 80 NM southwest of Nome will move to 100 NM west of
Kivalina as a 984 mb low by 3am Wed and then dissipate. A warn front
extending east from this low will move to Point Lay to 60 NM
south of Barter Island by 3am Wed, and then weaken in place.
A cold front extending from the low to Bristol Bay will move move
to Point Lay to McGrath by 3am Wed, then by 3pm Wed with a 998 mb
triple point low 80 NM south of Prudhoe Bay with the front
stretching south to Northway, then the cold front stretching east
of the ALCAN Border Wed night.

A strong weather front in the southwest Bering Sea will move to
the Northern Bering Sea and the Yukon Delta by 3pm Wed. This will
bring possible blizzard conditions to the YK Delta Wed AM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 12Z. Models show similar
solutions aloft through 3pm Wed, then see slight differences in
short wave details Wed night and Thu. Favor a blend of models for
features aloft through Wed, then a blend of the GFS and NAM for
Wed night and Thu.

Strong chinook winds blowing across the Alaska Range today will
decrease slightly late tonight and early Wed, then increase again
late Wed into early Thu before ending Thu.

850 mb temperatures range from +2C just north of the Alaska Range
to -10C over the West Coast and Brooks Range and -18C along the
Arctic Coast. Above freezing 850 mb temps spread north to Bettles
and Ft Yukon this afternoon then move east of the ALCAN Border on
Wed. Cooler temperatures spread east over Western AK on Wed and
over the Interior on Thu, with temps cooling all of Northern AK
Fri into the weekend.

With precipitation, models show similar areal coverage through
Wed with slight differences for Wed night and Thu. Models differ
significantly on amounts today through Wed. Will use a blend of
models for areal coverage and a blend of the NAM and GFS for
amounts. Highlight include:
Snow over Western Alaska today into tonight with 4 to 8 inches
from McGrath to Galena to Ambler. There will be a chance of mixed
precip SE of McGrath to Huslia to Ft Yukon today. Expect snow
along the South Slopes of the AK Range today into Wed with 2-4
inches expected with mixed precip possible. Expect snow to spread
to the North Slope and Central Interior tonight, and then across
the Eastern Interior on Wed, with 2-4 inches over the Central
Interior and North Slope with several inches over the Eastern
Interior. Another batch of snow moves into SW Alaska on Wed, over
the West Coast and Western Interior on Wed night, and then
northeast to NW Alaska and the Central and Eastern Interior on
Thu. This will bring another 2-4 inches of snow to the West Coast
and Western Interior on Wed into Thu.

At the surface at 06Z, models verify well. Models show similar
solutions through 3pm Wed, then see slight differences through
Thu. Will use a blend of the NAM and Canadian models for surface
features and winds through Thu. Highlights are:
South winds gusting 60 mph along the Alaska Range through Wed
morning, then again Wed eve into early Thu. SE winds gusting 50
mph near Delta Junction through Wed AM, then again Wed Evening
into Thu morning. East winds gusting 40 to 50 mph over NW AK from
Point Hope to Point Lay through Wed AM. East winds 20 mph gusting
to 40 mph along over the Kobuk Valley and NW AK and over Dalton
Highway summits decreasing tonight. East winds 30 mph gusting to
50 mph along the Arctic Coast from Wainwright to Barter Island
developing this evening and continuing into Wed, then decreasing
slightly Wed night.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ802>805.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ816-819-828.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ821-827.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ829.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ830.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ837-847.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ849.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-816-817-851-853-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-808-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811.
     Gale Warning for PKZ812-857-858.
     Gale Warning for PKZ813>815-859-860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
     Gale Warning for PKZ861.
&&

JB