Storm Warning 6, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
241 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A storm moving north across the Bering Sea into Friday
will continue to bring snow, mixed precipitation, and strong
winds to the West Coast and will be followed by yet another low on
Saturday. The Interior will generally remain dry and will see
below normal temperatures into Saturday, with chances of snow
increasing Sunday as an upper trough retrogrades over northern
Alaska and the Arctic. Winds will increase along the North Slope
Friday and remain gusty through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast Analysis and Discussion...
Ridging aloft remains situated over the Interior today and
Friday, before a trough of low pressure situated over the Yukon
and Northwest Territories of Canada starts to retrograde towards
the Arctic Coast on Saturday. Meanwhile, a series of strong short
wave troughs will continue to move northward over Bering Sea and
West Coast through Saturday, keeping strong easterly winds, snow,
and mixed precipitation in the forecast through much of the short
term.

At the surface, high pressure generally continues to nudge into the
Eastern and Central Interior with high pressure situated across
northern Canada and the Arctic while a strong low in the Bering
Sea continues to track northward and weaken. Another low south of
the Aleutians will strengthen and move into the Bering Sea Friday
night into Saturday, bringing another round of precipitation and
gusty, strong winds to the West Coast. Areas along the Yukon Delta
may see a brief reprieve in conditions Friday afternoon and
evening before precipitation and winds pick back up late Friday
night into Saturday. Areas from the Seward Peninsula will generally
see less of a break, with winds remaining gusty, especially for
the Kotzebue Sound.

Overall, models remain in decent agreement with the overall weather
pattern in the short term. The only change with the afternoon
forecast was scaling back on the mixed precipitation with the
current system and generally keeping it south of Kotzebue.

North Slope and Brooks Range...East winds along the North Slope
will increase generally from Utqiagvik eastward Friday through
Saturday and remain strong into Sunday. Strong winds, with gusts
to 50 to 60 mph will be possible primarily from Deadhorse east
Friday night through Saturday night. While there is still some
uncertainty regarding how low the visibility along the Slope will
get (due to lack of loose snow on the ground), cannot completely
rule out periods of low visibility should any blowing snow occur.

West Coast and Western Interior...A strong low moving northward
across the Bering Sea will continue to bring snow, mixed
precipitation, and strong winds to areas across the West Coast. A
multitude of Winter Storm Warnings, Winter Weather Advisories,
High Wind Warnings remain in effect through early Friday. Latest
observations as of this afternoon show some mixed precipitation
ongoing across portions of the Yukon Delta, but indicate a
switch back over to snow for areas near Nome and northward. The
Yukon Delta may see a brief reprieve in conditions on Friday
afternoon and evening before yet another low tracks into the
region and brings the return of precipitation and gusty winds
later Friday night into Saturday.

Central and Eastern Interior...High pressure nudging into the
region from the Yukon and Northern Territories will continue to
promote clearing skies and below normal temperatures across
portions of the Eastern and Central Interior over the next 2
days. Gusty winds along the Tanana Valley will decrease tonight.
Winds along the Alaska Range and Dalton Highway summits will
remain gusty into Friday, before subsiding. A trough retrograding
from Canada to the Arctic over the weekend may bring some slight
chances of snow to portions of the Interior - primarily on Sunday.
Overall accumulations look to remain rather light - generally at
an inch or less.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 Through 7...Guidance remains in
decent agreement on Sunday by keeping upper level troughing
across the Bering Sea. Meanwhile, an upper trough will continue to
retrograde along the Arctic Coast while a ridge axis across the
Gulf of Alaska shifts towards Western Canada. This pattern will
continue to bring strong easterly winds to portions on the Arctic
Coast on Sunday. Beyond the weekend, models are still struggling
to converge on a solution. While there is agreement that an upper
level ridge will build along the Aleutians and Bering Sea, there
remains a decent amount of uncertainty in its amplitude headed
into next week. The ECMWF and the CMC are indicative of a system
riding its periphery, which could bring some snow to portions of
the Interior should these solutions come to fruition. Meanwhile,
the GFS allows for the ridge to build and pushes its axis further
east into the Interior. Will need to see how models continue to
trend over the next few days, however have kept the trend of the
EC and the CMC in the forecast for now- with chances of snow
across the Interior next week, with temperatures near normal.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ801-821-825>827-830.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ808-814-816-818-832.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ815-817.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ820-822-823.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ824.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ834.
     Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ835.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ837-839-845-849.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-816-817-851-858.
     Gale Warning for PKZ802.
     Gale Warning for PKZ803.
     Gale Warning for PKZ804>808-852>854.
     Storm Warning for PKZ809-855.
     Storm Warning for PKZ810.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ812-850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ813.
     Gale Warning for PKZ814-815-861.
     Storm Warning for PKZ856.
     Gale Warning for PKZ859.
     Gale Warning for PKZ860.
&&