Storm Warning 11, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
644 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A very strong storm over the Northern Bering Sea will move over
the Southern Chukchi Sea this afternoon, then northwest of
Utqiagvik on Tue and north of Kaktovik on Wed. A weather front
trailing this storm will move over the West Coast today, then over
the Western North Slope and Western Interior lat tonight, then
over the Eastern North Slope and Eastern Interior on Tue and move
east of the ALCAN Border on Wed.

This storm is bringing heavy snow and blizzard conditions to the
West Coast from Norton Sound north, with the heavy snow spreading
into the Western Interior and Western North Slope today, and to
the Central Interior and eastern North Slope tonight, with less
heavy snow spreading to and to the Eastern Interior on Tue. Expect
snow fall amounts through Tue AM over the West Coast and Western
Interior of 4-8 inches from Unalakleet and Kaltag north, with 12
inches along SW facing slopes. Will see 2-4 inches of snow over
the North Slope tonight through Tue night with 6 inches in the NE
Brooks Range. Much of the Eastern Interior will see 3-6 inches of
snow from Mon afternoon/evening through Tue evening with the
heaviest snow on Tue. There will be mixed snow and freezing rain
through tonight SW of Point Hope to McGrath with mixed rain and
snow southwest of Unalakleet and Anvik today. There will be a
slight chance of freezing rain over the Central Interior south of
Nenana Tue AM.

South winds gusting 50 to 70 mph are now occuring over the Bering
Strait and will spread to the remainder of the West Coast this
morning with winds turning southwest and decreasing slowly along
the west coast tonight.

Southwest gales and blizzard conditions will spread to the
Western North Slope this evening, to the Central north Slope late
tonight and to the Eastern North Slope on Tue.

Will see winds gusting 25 to 40 mph across the Western Interior
today, with west winds gusting 25 to 40 mph across the Eastern
Interior Tue and Tue night. This will

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well at 00Z and show similar solutions aloft
through 3pm Wed, with increasing differences regarding short wave
details late this week. Models do agree on the long wave pattern
shifting from the current moist, warm and stormy SW flow pattern
to having a strong blocking high anchored over the Bering Sea and
Mainland Alaska by Wed which persists through Fri, then a strong
short wave dropping from the high Arctic south across the Eastern
Interior this weekend. This will mean a strong cooling trend to
below normal temperatures over the Interior and North Slope this
weekend. Will use a blend of models for features aloft.

Models agree fairly well and precipitation areal coverage and
amounts through Wed. Will use a blend of models for precipitation
with the following highlights:
Light snow over the North Slope and Eastern Interior will taper
off from the southwest today behind an approaching short wave
trough with less than 1 inch. Heavy snow along the West Coast from
Norton Sound north will spread to northeast over the Western
Interior and Western North Slope today, to the Central Interior
and Central north Slope this evening, and over the Eastern
Interior and Eastern North Slope tonight. Precip will taper off
from the west over the West Coast late tonight, then taper off
over the Western Interior and Western North Slope Tue afternoon,
and taper off over the Eastern Interior and Eastern North Slope
late Tue night. There will be mixed snow and freezing rain through
tonight SW of Point Hope to McGrath with mixed rain and snow
southwest of Unalakleet and Anvik today. There will be a slight
chance of freezing rain over the Central Interior south of Nenana
Tue AM. Expect snow fall amounts through Tue AM over the West
Coast and Western Interior of 4-8 inches from Unalakleet and
Kaltag north, with 12 inches along SW facing slopes. Will see 2-4
inches over the North Slope tonight through Tue night with 6
inches in the NE Brooks Range. Much of the Eastern Interior will
see 3-6 inches in most areas from Mon evening through Tue evening.

At the surface 09Z, models verified well. Models show similar
locations fore features through 3pm Tue, then the NAM keeps the
low closer to the Arctic Coast than other models Tue night and
Wed. Given the of the track of the low aloft favor the NAM
solutions. The GFS weirdly weaken the low over the Bering Sea
today as it moves north while all other models strengthen it.
Since this feature over the Western Bering is just now tapping
into Arctic Air flowing off of Siberia, expect the feature to be
at least as deep as the strongest models which is the NAM/ECMWF
and Canadian. Favor a blend of the NAM and Canadian at the
surface through Wed.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
A strong storm now developing in the Western Bering Sea will move
into the Central Chukchi Sea this afternoon, to north of
Utqiagvik on Tuesday and then well north of Kaktovik on Wed.
This storm will bring southerly gales of 40 mph to most of the
Weest Coast today, with gusts 50 to 70 mph along Western Capes.
This is expected to cause water levels along the coast to rise 3
to 5 feet from The YK Delta north to Point Hope today and tonight,
and up to 3 feet from Point Lay to Point Barrow tonight through
Tue night. This will likely cause water to flow on top of the sea
ice and river ice near the coast, and could cause minor flooding
of low lying areas near the coast. Another concern is that since
ice fractured and pushed offshore in many area from the past
several days of east winds, that the south to southwest winds
today and Tue could cause ice to push onshore (called an Ivu) in
many areas, especially in areas that have developed open water
leads near shore.

Flooding of infrastructure is not expected but people should move
valuables to higher ground. People should be alert for water
pushing on top of snow machine trails that run over ice or along
the coast. People should be alert for ice pushing onto beach areas
and the possibility that ice could push inland in some areas.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ802.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ813-819.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ814>818-820>824-827.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ803.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825-826.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ828-829.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ830.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ804.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ831-846.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832-834.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ838>845.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ808-809.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-809-816-817-850-851-855.
     Gale Warning for PKZ802-803-806-852>854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ804-805-807-810.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807-809-810.
     Gale Warning for PKZ808.
     Storm Warning for PKZ811-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ812-858.
     Gale Warning for PKZ813.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ852.
     Storm Warning for PKZ856.
     Gale Warning for PKZ859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

JB

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