Gale Warning 41, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
211 PM AKST Wed Jan 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Cold Arctic air will remain in place through this week
across much of northern Alaska. Conditions along the North Slope
have generally improved, but light snow, gusty winds, and cold
wind chills will still linger into Thursday for areas generally
from Deadhorse east. Longwave troughing looks to set up over central
and western Alaska over the weekend and looks to persist into
next week. Expect temperatures to moderate some for the Eastern
and Central Interior by next week, but look to remain cold across
the for the Western Interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...A 474 dam low will continue to
move east over the Arctic while a 543 dam high over the western
Bering Sea continues to retrograde westward. With this setup,
expect west to northwesterly flow to continue aloft for the
majority of the forecast area through Thursday. Upper level
troughing then looks to strengthen over north-central Alaska
Friday and looks to become more of a longwave trough over central
and western Alaska into the weekend. This upper troughing will
bring more southerly flow over the Central and Eastern Interior
and north-northwest flow over the Bering Sea and West Coast into
next week.

At the surface, high pressure generally persists along the Yukon
and the western Bering Sea this afternoon. Weak low pressure in
the eastern Bering Sea will continue to move southeastward today
and dissipate, allowing for the high pressure over the West Bering
to nudge further eastward into the West Coast. Meanwhile, a 993
mb low over the Beaufort Sea continues to weaken and push to the
northeast. Expect gusty winds to continue for areas generally
from Deadhorse east, with gusts to 45 mph possible at times
tonight into Thursday. A strong low pressure system in the Gulf of
Alaska will move northward towards Valdez Friday and through the
weekend. Moisture from this low could bring some increased cloud
cover and snow chances to the Eastern Interior this weekend, which
could help moderate some of the cold temperatures.

Overall, model guidance is in pretty good agreement with the
weather pattern in the short term, though uncertainty still lies
with the snow chances over the weekend. Have trended the precipitation
forecast in the near term towards the NAM and EC for now, which
keep the initial precipitation generally a bit more east of
Fairbanks. With southerly flow aloft, downsloping Chinook winds
from the Alaska Range could result in precipitation holding off a
bit initially for the Eastern Interior. This will be something to
monitor over the next few days.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Cold temperatures and gusty winds
will create wind chills of -50F to -55F through Thursday along the
Central and Eastern Beaufort Sea coast. Winds will pick up again
this evening, gusting to 40 to 50mph at times and could result in
blowing snow and visibilities being reduced down to a half mile
at times. As a result, have maintained the Winter Weather Advisories
for areas generally from Deadhorse east through Thursday afternoon.
Some light flurries may develop this afternoon and evening, but
expect little to no accumulation. Outside of this, dry and cold
weather should persist through the the remainder of the short
term.

Central and Eastern Interior...Cold temperatures are the main
story for the Central and Eastern Interior over the next few days
as Arctic air remains in place. Could see a few flurries and light
snow develop later this afternoon and tonight for areas in and
around Fairbanks as guidance does pick up on some energy swinging
across the area and around the broad upper level low to the
north. No impacts are expected and any accumulation would be a
dusting at best should conditions materialize. Otherwise, expect
cold temperatures to continue into Saturday, with highs generally
expected to be in the -20F to -45F range and lows expected to be
in the -35F to 55F range. The coldest spots could develop some
dense ice fog at times. Heading into the weekend, could see an
influx of moisture work its way into the region from the Southeast
Interior, resulting in more cloud cover and increased chances of
snow. Will have to see how guidance continues to trend in the snow
chances, as downsloping winds off the Alaska Range could
initially hold off on precipitation. For now, have kept chances of
snow in the forecast. Should precipitation and cloud cover make
it into the region, this will help to moderate temperatures some.
Snow does look to develop along the Eastern Alaska range on
Saturday, where roughly 5-10 inches will be possible. Will need to
monitor how guidance trends on this over the next few days as
details will become more refined.

West Coast and Western Interior...Cold temperatures will continue
through the end of the week, especially as the upper level trough
digs along the West Coast over the weekend. Lows in the Western
Interior will generally dip into the -20F to -45F range, though
could see some -50s develop in the coldest valleys by Saturday.
Highs will generally trend in the -15F to -40F range across the
Western Interior. Warmer temperatures are expected for areas near
the water (like the YK Delta and the Seward Peninsula), though
expect to see a gradually cooling trend the next few days. Highs
look to top out between -5F to -15F by Saturday, with lows generally
dipping down between -15F to -25F.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...Models are in decent agreement with a
longwave trough remaining centered over the Western Interior
Sunday and retrograding to the northwest early next week. This
overall set up would promote a moderation of temperatures for
areas across the Eastern and Central Interior, yet would continue
to promote cold temperatures for the Western Interior and West
Coast. Uncertainty also remains in how far the influx of moisture
from the low in the Gulf of Alaska makes it as just how much
moisture makes it into the Central and Eastern Interior will
depend on the placement of the upper level low and direction of winds.
For now, have maintained the trend of moisture making it into the
Central Interior and for moderating temperatures for the Central
and Eastern Interior for early next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ815.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
&&