Gale Warning 39, NWS Fairbanks, AK

249 
FZAK51 PAFG 231203
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
303 AM AKST Tue Jan 23 2024

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-240315-
303 AM AKST Tue Jan 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 992 mb low northwest of Wrangel Island will move east dragging 
a front eastward across Arctic Coast on Tuesday.

$$

PKZ811-240315-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 NM-
303 AM AKST Tue Jan 23 2024

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...W winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...N winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ812-240315-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 NM-
303 AM AKST Tue Jan 23 2024

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.WED...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ813-240315-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 NM-
303 AM AKST Tue Jan 23 2024

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.WED...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ814-240315-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 NM-
303 AM AKST Tue Jan 23 2024

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 35 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.WED...W winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.THU...W winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ815-240315-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 NM-
303 AM AKST Tue Jan 23 2024

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog and blowing snow.
Vsby 1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog and blowing
snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED...W winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog and blowing snow.
Vsby 1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog and blowing
snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU...W winds 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog and blowing snow.
Vsby 1 NM or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog and blowing
snow. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  

$$

PKZ857-240315-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 NM-
303 AM AKST Tue Jan 23 2024

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.WED...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...NW winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ858-240315-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 NM-
303 AM AKST Tue Jan 23 2024

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.WED...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ859-240315-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 NM-
303 AM AKST Tue Jan 23 2024

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.WED...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ860-240315-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 to 80 NM-
303 AM AKST Tue Jan 23 2024

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 35 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.WED...W winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.THU...W winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ861-240315-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 to 75 NM-
303 AM AKST Tue Jan 23 2024

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W winds 35 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.WED...W winds 30 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 35 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.THU...W winds 35 kt. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow and freezing fog. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...E winds 15 kt.  

$$

Jan 24

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
221 PM AKST Mon Jan 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure remains situated over the Bering Sea
while an Arctic trough remains situated across the Eastern
Interior today. An upper level low traversing the Arctic will
sweep its associated surface front across the North Slope tonight
into Tuesday, bringing snow, gusty winds, and blowing snow to the
region. Cold air will remain entrenched across the Interior over
the next several days. While uncertainty still exists late in the
period, cold temperatures may moderate some heading into the
weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...
A 548 dam ridge of high pressure remains situated across the
Bering Sea today, while a 506 dam Arctic trough lingers across the
Eastern Interior. With 850mb temperatures generally trending the
-25C to -35C range, temperatures at the surface have been very
cold across much of the Interior. Fairbanks recorded its first -40
minimum temperature of the season, while Fort Yukon reported a
low of -51F this morning.

A strong 475 dam low traversing the Arctic will sweep a surface
front across the North Slope tonight into Tuesday, bringing gusty
winds, snow, and blowing snow to the region. The high aloft over
the Bering will dampen on Tuesday, allowing for more zonal flow to
set up over much of the state Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
upper level low making its way across the Arctic looks to make
landfall over Banks Island on Thursday. More of an upper level
troughing pattern looks to set up across northern Alaska Friday
and into the weekend.

Overall, models generally align well in regards to the weather
pattern in the short term. The only changes in the immediate near
term forecast are an increase of POPs along the Seward Peninsula
and Arctic Coast to reflect most recent radar trends and SREF
guidance. For winds, trended towards a blend of the ECMWF/NAM/CMC.
Outside of the short term, there remain discrepancies in the
overall pattern set up, especially over the weekend and into early
next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...An upper level low traversing the
Arctic will sweep a surface front across the North Slope tonight
into Tuesday. This system will bring gusty winds to 40 mph, snow,
blowing snow, and very cold wind chills of -50 to -55 to region
into midweek. Snow amounts look to remain light, generally at an
inch or less. However, new snow and gusty winds will produce areas
of blowing snow and could reduce visibilities for areas along the
North Slope down to 1/2 mile at times. Winter Weather Advisories
remain in place for the entire coast and portions of the Dalton
Highway, including Anaktuvuk and Atigun passes.

West Coast and Western Interior...Overall, it remains rather
quiet along the West Coast and Western Interior with high pressure
persisting over the Bering Sea. With the passage of a front along
the Northwest Arctic, winds along Kotzebue Sound have started to
pick up this morning. This has made for dangerously cold wind chills
in the area through at least the remainder of the afternoon. Winds
should die down by this evening, but this will warrant watching
over the next few hours. Otherwise, expect cold temperatures to
continue, with lows across the Western Interior looking to dip
down to 30 to 40 below zero the next few days. Lows along the
water (especially the Yukon Delta) are a bit more moderate and
only look to dip down into the single digits to teens below zero.

Central and Eastern Interior...Cold temperatures will continue
through the near term as very cold, Arctic air settles across the
Central and Eastern Interior. There will not be much of a
difference between daily highs and lows - with lows across the
Interior valleys generally trending in the -30 to -40F range and
highs trending in the -25 to -35F range. The Yukon Flats look to
be the coldest spot, with overnight lows dropping down into the
-50 to -55F range and highs only warming into the -35 to -45F
 range. Areas of dense ice fog could develop during this
 prolonged cold snap as well.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...Models continue to struggle with the
overall pattern in the extended forecast, especially over the
weekend and into early next week. While they do hint at an upper
level troughing pattern setting up across northern Alaska on
Friday, plenty of uncertainty remains in the exact placement of
the trough axis and its evolution over the weekend. In regards to
temperatures, plenty of spread remains amongst ensemble guidance.
The EC ensembles currently look to hold on to the cold snap a bit
longer with it continuing through weekend. The GEFS suggests more
of a moderation of temperatures for the Interior over the weekend,
with increased southerly flow into the region and increased chances
of POPs. Have trended the forecast this way for now - with more
of a moderation in temperatures expected over the weekend and
increased chances of POPs for the Interior starting Friday. Will
have to see how guidance trends and converges on a solution over
the next few days.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801>803.
     Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ816-817.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ808-809.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-856.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-814-860.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ815.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&