Gale Warning 302, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
246 PM AKST Mon Dec 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Mostly quiet and calm weather is in place across
Northern Alaska. Northeast winds across high terrain in the
northern Interior including Dalton Highway Summits has a Winter
Weather Advisory for blowing snow in effect there. A Winter Storm
Watch for Blizzard Conditions is in effect for Kaktovik as east
winds increase across the eastern Arctic Coast Tuesday night. A
shortwave and associated warm front will lift north over the
Alaska Range bringing strong south winds through Alaska Range
Passes, light snow, and a very slight chance of mixed
precipitation southwest of Fairbanks on Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Weather Impacts by Region:

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Clear and cold again Tuesday morning. Temperatures begin to
  moderate over the Interior by Wednesday.

- Tanana Valley Jet winds will re-intensify Tuesday afternoon and
  Wednesday with gusts to 40 mph.

- Northeast winds continue over the summits of the Interior, in
  particular along the Dalton, Elliott, and Steese Highways.
  Expect gusts around 35 to 40 mph. These winds will cause areas
  of blowing and drifting snow, reducing visibility below a mile
  at times. Gusty winds will continue into Tuesday.

- Southerly flow will begin to set up for the Interior late on
  Tuesday. This will bring warmer temperatures for the southern
  Interior along with gusts around 40 mph for Windy Pass and 65
  mph for Isabel Pass. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the
  Eastern Alaska Range north of Trims Camp.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A warm front will swing across the area and bring a potential
  for mixed precipitation Wednesday through Thursday.
  Probabilities for freezing rain are 20% or less with little or
  no ice accumulation expected. Snow amounts will be 1-3 inches.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Stronger winds gusting to 45 mph will pick up across the NE
  Arctic Coast Tuesday evening into Wed. There could be local
  ground blizzard conditions for Barter Island. A Winter Storm
  Watch has been issued for the potential for Blizzard conditions.

Analysis and Forecast/Confidence Discussion...A 1029 mb high near
75 N north of Utqiagvik and a 987 mb low in the southern Bering
Sea has a 42 mb NE to SW pressure gradient set up across the
state. This is bringing NE winds across Dalton Highways Summits
and high terrain in the northern Interior. As the high migrates to
Mackenzie Bay and strengthens tomorrow night, east winds will pick
up across the eastern Arctic Coast, bringing potential blizzard
conditions to Kaktovik. High pressure persists in the Arctic
through the week. Opted to keep the Winter Storm Watch a Watch
rather than going with a Blizzard Warning or Winter Weather
Advisory due to remaining uncertainty in how strong the winds will
be and how low the visibility will reach. MOS guidance does not
agree on visibility at Kaktovik. Aloft at 500 mb, a 496 dam low
lies over St. Paul Island with ridging extending east over the
Mainland. A strong shortwave will move through the southerly flow
on Tuesday night and Wednesday with an associated surface warm
front. This will bring strong southerly gap winds through Alaska
Range Passes. Have issued a Wind Advisory for the Richardson
Highway/Delta River corridor north of Trims Camp and south of
Delta Junction. The warm front will bring light snow and a very
slight chance of mixed precipitation from Fairbanks southeast to
the Yukon Delta. Ensemble guidance indicates the chance for any
accumulating ice to be 20% or less for all areas and around 5% for
Fairbanks, so there is no plan to issue any advisory or warning
products for this event at this time.

Forecast confidence is average in the short term and below average
in the long term, though major storms are not expected. The
forecast today will be a blend of the NBM, ECMWF, and NAM with
some SREF added in for PoPs. No changes in the precipitation type
forecast from the overnight package, and minimal changes to the
winds. Increased winds through Alaska Range passes as guidance has
been trending upwards and issued that Wind Advisory. Maintained
just chance PoPs for Fairbanks on Tuesday night as the warm front
lifts north. High confidence that any precipitation with this warm
front will fall as snow as warm air doesn't move in until after
the precipitation.

Extended Forecast For Days 4 Through 7...The extended forecast
period looks quite quiet with generally light southerly flow
across the area. This should bring near normal temperatures,
occasional periods of strong south winds through Alaska Range
passes, and occasional shortwaves bringing light snowfall.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802>807-811-812-852-857-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817-850-853-854-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850-853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

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