Gale Warning 18, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
653 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Several storms moving north along the West Coast of Alaska through
Fri will cause very stormy conditions and warm temperatures along
the West Coast this week, while the Arctic Coast is mainly dry
with just above normal temperatures and periods of strong east
winds this week. The Interior is warm with periods of light snow
but will clear out and cool to near normal tonight, then remain
dry with near normal temps into Wed, before becoming windy and
warmer than normal Wed night into Fri.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a strong ridge over the Eastern
Pacific north over AK into the Beaufort Sea a deep trough over
Northern Canada and a trough over Eastern Russia, the Sea of
Okhotsk and the NW Pacific and Western Bering. This pattern will
persist through the week with the ridge building through the week.

A short wave trough stretching from Norton sound to Northway will
move to Point Hope to Northway this afternoon then weaken
tonight. This is causing light snow that will taper off to
flurries.

Surface...
A 1038 mb high over the Beaufort Sea and NW Canada will strengthen
through Thu. A low pressure trough over the North Slope of Alaska
will weaken today, remain weak into Wed, then strengthen on Thu.
The trough combined with the high is causing east winds over the
Arctic Coast that will decrease through tonight, remain light on
Wed, then increase on Thu.

A 990 mb low 300 NM west of Point Hope will move to near Wrangel
Island as a 992 mb low by 3pm Tue then continue moving northwest.
An occluded front from this low to Cape Lisburne to Northway will
weaken today and dissipate tonight. This is causing windy
conditions over NW AK and over the Eastern Arctic Coast that will
decrease through tonight. This is also causing light snow from NW
AK to the SE Interior that will taper off to flurries tonight.

A very strong storm south of Shemya will move over the southeast
Bering Sea on Wed, to 100 NM west of St Matthew Is as a 977 mb low
by 3am Thu, and to 200 NM west of Gambell as a 990 mb low by 3am
Fri. This will bring heavy snow and possible blizzard conditions
to the West Coast from the Seward Pen south Wed into Thu night,
with freezing and even rain possible Wed PM into Thu south of Nome
to Shageluk. Expect 8-12 inches of snow west Nome where precip
remains all snow, Nome should see 8 inches tapering to 4 inches at
Golovin. The Yukon Delta and area southwest of Anvik should see
4-8 inches of snow Wed before changing to mixed precip Wed
afternoon and Wed night. Could see significant ice accumulation of
0.25" SW of Anvik Wed PM into Thu.

This strong storm will also cause east winds to increase to gales
along the West Coast from the Bering Strait south on Wed and
spread north over the Chukchi Sea south of Cape Lisburne on Wed
night. It will cause east winds increasing to 40 to 50 mph along
the Tanana River near Delta Junction and along the Kobuk River
near Shungnak Wed Night and continue into Thu. Also east winds
gusting to 40 mph over Interior Highway Summits Wed PM into Thu.
South winds gusting 40 mph through Brooks Range Wed night and Thu.
South winds gusting 40 mph through Brooks Range and Alaska Range
Passes Wed night and Thu.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Aloft at 00Z, models initialize 10-20 meters too weak on the high
aloft over NE AK and NW Canada, but initialize well on most other
features aloft. Models show similar solutions aloft through 3pm
Wed, then the ECMWF moves the strong short wave that is making its
way north along the West Coast of Alaska more strongly and
further east than other models. Given that the ridge over Northern
Alaska is stronger than models initialized, expect that the
incoming short wave will remain further west and weaker as the
NAM, GFS models show. Will use a blend of the NAM and GFS for
features aloft.

850 mb temperatures are generally colder than -10C over Northern
AK as a shallow but cold Arctic airmass covers most of North AK.
Temps remain cold most areas, but rise above 0C over SW AK Wed
afternoon and over much of the area south of Minchumina to Nome
Wed night and over the Western Interior and portions of the West
Coast Thu. This will bring mixed precipitation in the form of
snow, freezing rain, and possible evening rain to SW AK Wed
afternoon, and to the area south of Nome to Minchumina Wed night
and Thu.

With precipitation, models show similar solutions through 3am
Wed. After that time the ECMWF moves the precipitation further
east than the other models, while the NAM moves it slightly
inland, and the GFS keeps precip mainly southwest of Kaltag to the
Bering Strait through Thu. Since the ridge over Northern AK is
stronger than models initialize, favor the GFS keeping the precip
further west. Given that there may be some error in this, will use
a blend of the GFS and NAM for precipitation areal coverage and
amounts. Highlight are:
Light snow over the SE Interior, Western Interior and West Coast
from Norton Sound north today will taper off to flurries tonight
and expect less than 1 inch of snow. Snow moving into the YK Delta
after 3am Wed will spread to Shageluk to Gambell by 3pm Wed with
mixed precip over SW AK, then spread to Shageluk to Kaltag to
Shishmaref by 3am Thu with mixed precip south of Kaltag to Nome,
and then remain in that area into Thu night and. Expect 0.5 inch
of precip SW of Anvik to Emmonak to Golovin Wed through Thu night
with 1.0-1.5 inches SW of Chevak to Nome to the Bering Strait Wed
through Thu night. This will cause heavy snow over St Lawrence Is,
the Bering Strait, the Nome area, and the Yukon Delta and lower
Yukon Valley SW of Anvik. 8-12 inches possible of snow will fall
west Nome where precip remains all snow, Nome should see 8 inches,
with 4 inches at Golovin. The Yukon Delta and area southwest of
Anvik should see 4-8 inches Wed before changing to mixed precip
Wed afternoon and Wed night. Could see significant ice
accumulation of 0.25" SW of Anvik Wed PM into Thu.

At the surface at 06Z, models all verify 6-8 mb too weak on the
low over the Chukotsk Peninsula but do well on most other
features. Models show fairly similar patterns at the surface
through Thu. Favor the NAM for surface wind details through Thu,
but will use the Canadian models for winds only along the Arctic
Coast today through tonight to reflect the deeper than forecast
surface low now moving NW over the Western Chukchi Sea. Highlights
are:
East winds 20-40 kt across the Arctic Coast from Deadhorse east
today decreasing slowly through tonight. East winds increasing to
gales along the West Coast from the Bering Strait south on Wed
spreading north over the Chukchi Sea south of Cape Lisburne on Wed
night. East winds increasing to 40 to 50 mph along the Tanana
River near Delta Junction and along the Kobuk River near Shungnak
Wed Night and continue into Thu. East winds gusting to 40 mph over
Interior Highway Summits Wed PM into Thu. South winds gusting 40
mph through Brooks Range Wed night and Thu. South winds gusting 40
mph through Brooks Range and Alaska Range Passes Wed night and
Thu.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ821>824.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ825.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ826-830.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ827.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-811-856>858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-814-859.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-817-852>854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850-851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ861.
&&

JB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1244 PM AKST Tue Jan 9 2024

AKZ803>805-102145-
Northern Arctic Coast-Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Utqiagvik, Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse,
Kuparuk, the Dalton Highway north of MP 387, Kaktovik,
Flaxman Island, and Point Thomson
1244 PM AKST Tue Jan 9 2024

...Strong East Winds and Blowing Snow likely Friday and This
Weekend...

Easterly winds are expected to increase late this week to 35 to 45
mph with gusts as high as 60 mph. This will cause another round
of gusty winds and widespread significant blowing and drifting snow
for areas along the Arctic Coast. Stay tuned for future updates.