Gale Warning 12, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
554 AM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern continues for the North Slope and the
West Coast. A storm system moving into the Bering Sea tonight and
Sunday will bring blizzard conditions to the Yukon Delta, Seward
Peninsula and St. Lawrence Island. This system will also bring
another round of strong easterly winds to the North Slope, which
will cause blizzard conditons.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...

Aloft, at 500 mb, a 499 dam low is in place over the Aleutians,
with a 537 dam high over the Arctic Ocean. This low will deepen as
it moves northward into the Bering tonight and Sunday before
moving off into eastern Russia on Monday. Another low looks to
move into the Bering for the middle of the week.

At the surface, this morning a 954 mb low was situated near Adak.
This low will deepen as it moves north in the Bering today,
dropping to 946 mb as it approaches St. Paul Island this evening.
The low will continue northward on Sunday, gradually weakening,
and will move into eastern Russia by Monday night. High pressure
will strengthen over the Beaufort Sea tonight where a 1038 mb
high will remain in place into Tuesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The strong low in the Bering will bring a little more
precipitation with it when compared to the previous systems over
the past week. As the low moves northward today, snow will spread
to the north. Over the Yukon Delta, Norton Sound, the Southern
Seward Peninsula and southwest Interior. Snowfall amounts over the
next 24 hours will generally be in the 1 to 3 inch range. Heavier
snow is expected in the Nulato Hills and along a line for Russian
Mission to Grayling to Kaltag where 5 to 10 inches of snow are
anticipated over the next day. Winter Storm Warnings were posted
for these areas. Areas along the coast will see wind gusts in the
40 to 60 mph range as the low moves north. Given the strong winds
combined with falling snow, we expect Blizzard conditions to
develop today over The Yukon Delta, St. Lawrence Island and the
southern Seward Peninsula Coast. We opted to upgrade the ongoing
watches in these areas to Blizzard Warnings. Winds will die down
Sunday night into Monday

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Winds have died down overnight tonight, and the visibility has
improved and the inherited advisories from the previous systems
have ended. This will only be a brief respite as the pressure
gradient will tighten up again tonight with the strong low moving
north through the Bering and high pressure building of the
Beaufort Sea. We expect high winds, snow and blowing snow to
develop along the coast from Utqiagvik east. We posted Blizzard
Warnings along the Beaufort Sea Coast for Sunday into Monday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Relatively quiet weather today, with mostly clear skies with
highs in the teens to single digits below zero. Temperatures will
warm tonight as clouds move in from the west. A front moving
through will bring around a 30 percent chance of snow to much of
the Interior; however, however, we are not expecting much of
anything here in Fairbanks. Chances for precipitation will fill
in more on Monday.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
We are expecting an active pattern into next week with a series of
systems pushing through the Bering Sea. The fist looks to be about
midweek, with the second for the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ821-822.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ824-829-830.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ825-826.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ827.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-802-805>808-850>854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ803-816-817.
     Gale Warning for PKZ804-809-855-856.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-813-857>859.
     Gale Warning for PKZ814-860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
&&