Brisk Wind Advisory 404, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
227 PM AKST Fri Dec 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Mostly quiet weather is expected between now and a
significant storm system that will arrive at the Lower Yukon
Valley and Yukon Delta Sunday morning before pushing north across
the west coast and western interior through Tuesday. A slough of
watch, warning, and advisory products has been issued for this
system which will bring heavy snow amounts over high terrain, ice
accumulation from rain and freezing rain, and blowing snow
further north. Temperatures across the whole forecast area will be
well above normal and even above freezing in many places by
Monday. Fairbanks will likely see above freezing high temperatures
on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Weather Impacts by Region...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Dense fog will likely return to the Fairbanks North Star Borough
  overnight tonight. Pockets of mist, low clouds, or very light
  drizzle are possible through early tomorrow morning.

- Gap winds through Alaska Range passes will gust to 40-50 mph
  through through Saturday morning then weaken before much
  stronger winds arrive on Sunday.

- Warm temperatures persist into next week. Above normal
  temperatures will persist through next week. Areas from the
  Alaska Range north to and including Fairbanks will likely see
  high temperatures above freezing on Monday. There is a slight
  chance that highs will even reach 40 degrees.

- Precipitation will be very limited through early next week. A
  shortwave may bring light snow north of Fairbanks on Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Intermittent snow showers continue from the Seward Peninsula to
  the YK Delta through Saturday night.

- Light snow and snow showers coupled with the wind will result in
  visibility down to 1 mile at times through the Bering Strait and
  on St. Lawrence Island through tonight.

- A stronger storm moving into the southern Bering on Sunday will
  provide widespread mixed precipitation. A number of watches,
  warnings, and advisories have been issued for snow amounts over
  high terrain, ice accumulation from rain and freezing rain, and
  blowing snow further north.

- Precipitation looks to begin as all snow on Sunday is all
  locations before changing to rain from the Seward Peninsula
  south. Precipitation will likely change back to snow on Monday
  night across western capes and west of Nome before tapering off
  Tuesday.

- Above freezing temperatures are very likely across almost the
  whole area Monday and Tuesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Light snow in the Brooks Range today and it traverses north to
  the Eastern North Slope Friday night.
	- 1 to 3 inches of snow in the Brooks Range and northeast to
      Barter Island by Saturday afternoon.

- Strong Chinook conditions Monday and Tuesday will bring well
  above normal temperatures and strong south winds through Brooks
  Range passes.
	- Snow chances Sunday night into Monday have the potential to mix
   with freezing rain, sleet and rain Monday night, though it will
   be drying out across most of the Slope.

- Strong easterly gales develop along the coast Sunday night into
  Monday.

Analysis and Forecast Confidence...A quiet but messy pattern
persists over Alaska with high pressure in the Arctic and low
pressure in the Gulf of Alaska. Pockets of warm air aloft continue
and will continue to make the precipitation type forecast
particularly challenging across the state. Luckily, precipitation
looks to be very limited over the central and eastern Interior
through the next week. The pattern will remain quiet until a 958
mb low moves north out of the north Pacific on Sunday to the
Aleutian Islands. This system has an impressive atmospheric river
attached to it, tapping moisture from near Hawaii. As is typical
with systems like this, it will bring a lot of warm air northward,
causing most of the precipitation to be mixed, especially from the
Seward Peninsula south. This storm system was the main focus of
the forecast today. We have issued a slough of watches, warnings,
and advisories for it across the west coast and western interior.
The ECMWF continues to be the most consistent and precip heavy
solution for this system and we trended the forecast that way.
Most areas will see precipitation start as snow, then change to
rain. Western capes and the Nome area should see precip finish as
snow as well. Areas north of the Seward Peninsula will likely see
all snow, but there is still a slight chance of freezing rain
north all the way to the Chukchi Coast. That being said, there is
significant model disagreement still, especially regarding how
warm temperatures in the Interior will get. Given ensembles, the
most likely solution and forecast is for tempertures in the mid
30s on Monday across the Fairbanks North Star Borough and warmer
toward the Alaska Range. 40 degrees in Fairbanks is not out of the
question for Monday though.

Extended Forecast For Days 4 Through 7...The storm will weaken
Tuesday with lingering rain and snow showers across the west
coast, then conditions quiet down significantly. Temperatures look
to remain above normal to well above normal across the whole
forecast area through next week. A system moving into the Gulf of
Alaska on Thursday will bring light precip to the central and
eastern Interior Thursday and Friday. Given how much warm air
there will still be in the area, will need to monitor for the
potential for the precipitation to be mixed. Any precip looks very
light at this point though.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Nome may see water levels
1 to 2 feet above the normal high tide line on Monday night and
Tuesday, otherwise no coastal impacts are expected from this storm
system.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Wind Watch for AKZ847-849.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ817.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822-824.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ823-829.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825-826-830.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-816-851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-812-857-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
&&

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