Blizzard Warning 9, NWS Fairbanks, AK

200 
WWAK41 PAFG 301134
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
234 AM AKST Tue Jan 30 2024

AKZ805-301245-
/O.CAN.PAFG.BZ.W.0009.000000T0000Z-240131T1500Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik, Flaxman Island, and Point Thomson
234 AM AKST Tue Jan 30 2024

...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...


$$

AKZ801-301245-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240130T1500Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Point Hope, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
234 AM AKST Tue Jan 30 2024

...WIND CHILL WARNING IS CANCELLED...


$$

AKZ809-301945-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WW.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-240130T1500Z/
/O.NEW.PAFG.WC.Y.0015.240130T1134Z-240131T1200Z/
Central Brooks Range-
Including Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass, Galbraith Lake, 
and the Dalton Highway from MP 232 to MP 322
234 AM AKST Tue Jan 30 2024

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 50 below 
  zero.

* WHERE...Central Brooks Range.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and sustained wind
speeds of 15 mph or more will create low wind chills. Frost bite
and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken. 

&&

$$

AKZ803-804-301245-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WW.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-240131T1500Z/
Northern Arctic Coast-Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Utqiagvik, Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, 
Kuparuk, and the Dalton Highway north of MP 387
234 AM AKST Tue Jan 30 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
152 PM AKST Mon Jan 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS…

Deep, negatively tilted pressure trough remains over the West
Coast through today. Shortwave troughs have been following the
flow induced by the main trough, moving from the Gulf of Alaska
and into the Alaska Range. This has allowed for moisture to
infiltrate much of the Interior, making it all the way north
towards the Arctic Coast. Thus, we are seeing widespread light
snow through much of the Interior and into the North Slope. Within
the interior, widespread 1-4” of snow is expected by midweek,
with higher elevations seeing upwards to 4-8”. Along the Arctic
Coast, we are also expecting between 2-4” of new snow. Throughout
the higher elevations along the Dalton and Steese Highways,
mountain passes throughout, and along the Arctic Coast, winds will
continue to increase today. These winds, coupled with falling
snow, will lead to areas of reduced visibilities due to blowing
snow. This threat will continue through the evening and into
tonight for some, tapering off through the night in the Interior,
as winds start to decrease. The Arctic Coast will continue to see
the gusty winds at least through tomorrow. We are keeping a close
eye on Barter Island, as winds are expected to increase quite a
bit, which may lead to blizzard conditions. This has since been
upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning, but we will have to continue
to monitor for any other changes in the headlines. After this
larger system that is bringing the snow today/tomorrow moves out,
mid to late week will remain mostly dry, aside from locations
along the Arctic Coast. The current low pressure trough over the
area will continue to meander east through the Interior this week,
and possibly into the weekend. Surface high pressure underneath
will allow for the calm weather, with a resurgence of very cold
air expected as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...

At the 500 mb level, we see a 485 dam upper low over the West
Coast and Western Interior. The trough has gone negatively tilted
over the last 24 hours, where it has also reached it’s strongest
point. From here, we will continue to see this low pressure trough
weaken significantly, with it flattening out over the North Slope
and becoming a 500 dam wave. Ahead of this wave, southerly flow
will continue for the Southeast and Eastern Interior, which may
allow an extended period of light snow through Tuesday and part of
Wednesday, before the moisture gets cut off. This wave will
slowly continue to push easterly through the week, with it cutting
off from the flow again and developing a closed upper low. No
strengthening is expected at that point, with the bulk of the
moisture transport east of the ALCAN Border. Thus, this wave will
serve as a pool of very cold air over the Interior, with a large
area of -30 to -40 850 mb temperatures sitting over the Interior.
Late in the week, we will start to see the return of southerly
flow along the West Coast, as weak upper ridging over the Bering
Sea propagates east.

A 962 mb low pressure system is currently working is way onshore
along the Alaska Gulf Coast. After a brief lull in snowfall
through much of the Interior, we will start to see this pull in
more moisture and increase light snow coverage. Surface boundary
draped over the Interior will continue to push north, towards the
North Slope, bringing widespread snowfall as well. Since the last
forecast package, we have increased snow accumulations slightly,
which upped it an inch or so, with around 3-5” along the Arctic
Coast and higher elevations of the Brooks Range. Otherwise, we can
expect 1-2” of snow elsewhere. Pressure gradient tightens over
much of the area today, coupled with a weak inverted trough along
the Arctic Coast, resulting in gusty conditions. Generally,
surface winds may gust upwards to 40 mph or higher. This will lead
to potential blizzard conditions, especially near Barter Island.
Throughout the remainder of the Interior, higher elevations and
mountain passes will see an increase in winds as well, resulting
from the tightening gradient. Thus, areas of blowing snow can be
expected through the afternoon and evening today, with winds
decreasing overnight. With the upper trough situated over the West
Coast and shifting east through next week, very cold air will
remain at the surface as well, with surface high pressure building
over the Interior. Areas along the West Coast and Western
Interior will continue to see very cold temperatures into midweek,
with a possible warm up coming during the second half of the
week, as southerly flow kicks in with the building ridge.

North Slope and Brooks Range…

Temperatures along the Arctic Coast have warmed up quite a bit in
the last 24 hours, especially along the Arctic Coast. Warm
advection is to thank for this change, as temperatures yesterday
were around the -30s to -40s, but are now increasing to the
negative teens to -20s. Although, the winds will be on the rise
today, resulting in very cold wind chills throughout. Along with
the wind, a boundary will pass through the North Slope today and
tomorrow, bringing widespread snow. We will see widespread
snowfall accumulations between 2-4”, with upwards to 5” or a
little more along the Arctic Coast and in the higher elevations of
the Brooks Range. Although, with the winds increasing today, a
lot of this snow will be blowing around, leading to visibility
reductions through the next two days. Winter Weather Advisories
have been issued for impacts from falling/blowing snow. The Winter
Weather Advisory at Barter Island has been upgraded to a Winter
Storm Warning, as falling/blowing snow will lead to more
significant visibility reductions. Blizzard conditions will be
possible, but confidence remains low for a Blizzard Warning at
Barter Island. We will monitor conditions and update headlines as
necessary, as confidence increases. With dense cloud cover and
persistent snowfall through the next few days, temperatures should
moderate to about where they are now, with slight diurnal
temperature differences.

West Coast and Western Interior…

Trough of low pressure remains over the West Coast today, keeping
the very cold temperatures in place. Winds have also increased
throughout the region, especially along the West Coast, generating
very cold wind chills. Currently, wind chill value are ranging
between -40 and -50, which have been messaged with Wind Chill
Advisories for much of the West Coast. These will continue into
tomorrow morning, with gradual warming to near/above zero by the
end of the week. This will be thanks to warm advection into the
region, bringing along plenty of clouds, which will act together
to help moderate temperatures a bit and keep the area warmer than
the last week. Much of the moisture will remain east of the
region, limiting the precipitation chances. Thus, we are not
expecting much, if any precipitation this week. Guidance also
indicates occasional Polar Lows passing through the Bering Sea, on
Tuesday and Thursday, which may lead to localized enhancements in
the wind field. Guidance also brings these lows close to or
onshore around the YK Delta, which will bring winds and the next
chance for precipitation Wednesday/Thursday. As we approach
midweek, the trough over the region will start to decay and slowly
drift east into the Interior. This will allow for potentially
stronger warm advection this weekend as a ridge moves in, but
confidence remains low/moderate on this, as guidance remains
uncertain.

Central and Eastern Interior…

Temperatures have started to moderate throughout, as full cloud
cover and occasional falling snow has allowed the “warmer”
temperatures to get trapped at the surface. Fortunately, the winds
remain low, aside from higher elevation locations along the
Dalton/Richardson Highway. Snow remains through much of the
evening, but will continue to shift north and west of the Interior
through the next 12-24 hours, leaving us mostly dry through the
remainder of the week. These winds have started to pick up through
the day, and will continue into the evening hours, slowly
starting to die off tonight. Thus, the Winter Weather Advisories
out along the highway will incrementally expire through the night.
Through midweek, the trough over the west continues to move east
over the Interior. High pressure is also expected to develop at
the surface, strengthening through the end of the week. With a
pool of very cold air aloft and subsidence from the surface high,
very cold temperatures will once again reach the surface. Thus,
this brief stretch of near normal temperatures will quickly go
downhill during the second half of the week, with days in the
-20s/-30s and nights reaching back into the -40s or colder. This
stretch of cold might end up being colder than the recent, as
guidance has been quite aggressive with it. The 850 mb
temperatures that were described above would support this extreme
cold through the Interior. With high pressure overhead, the winds
will be relatively light, keeping the wind chill values near the
actual air temperature. Although, if it is still -40 without the
wind, it is still very cold. Stay tuned for any updates and be
prepared for the cold.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7…

Models are in decent agreement with the upper level low decaying,
with weak ridging over the Bering slowly building and pushing
east. Although, guidance starts to diverge as we get to the
weekend, with timing of the approaching ridge. Much of this will
be dependent on the trough of low pressure that weakens and pushes
east through the week, as it is forecast to cutoff over the North
Slope. With this cut off from the flow, it is not expected to
move much, leading to timing issues. In either case, guidance does
favor a ridge moving in from the west coast later in the
week/weekend. As this ridge pushes inland, we will start to see
systems in the Bering Sea grow stronger and push closer to the
coast. This will lead to an active period for the West Coast, as
these systems bring stronger winds and precipitation. Along with a
more active pattern out west, this would indicate strong warm
advection into the region as well. This would allow for a possible
warm up for much of the west, and possibly into the Interior.
Again, guidance remains uncertain on this, so we will spare much
of the details. Although, there is hope to get rid of the extreme
cold for a period of time.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Chill Warning for AKZ801.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ812-831-832-834-842.
     Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ814-815-820>822.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ803-804.
     Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ825-826.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ848-850.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-854-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-811-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Gale Warning for PKZ814.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
     Gale Warning for PKZ860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ861.
&&