Storm Warning 94, NWS Anchorage, AK

021 
FZAK51 PAFC 182337
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
337 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-191245-
337 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front extends over Kodiak Island and the Gulf through Sat 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ710-191245-
Cape Suckling to Gravel Point out to 15 NM-
337 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ711-191245-
Gravel Point to Cape Cleare out to 15 NM-
337 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ712-191245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare from 15 to 75 NM-
337 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ715-191245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point out to 15 NM-
337 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ716-191245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point from 15 to 75 NM-
337 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ714-191245-
Resurrection Bay-
337 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ724-191245-
Northwest Prince William Sound-
337 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ725-191245-
Central and Eastern Prince William Sound-
337 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ726-191245-
Southwest Prince William Sound-
337 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ720-191245-
Port of Valdez-
337 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ721-191245-
Valdez Narrows-
337 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ722-191245-
Valdez Arm-
337 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ723-191245-
Passage Canal-
337 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt near Whittier. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ730-191245-
West of Barren Islands Including Kamishak Bay-
337 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ731-191245-
Barren Islands East-
337 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ733-191245-
Gore Point to Marmot Island from 15 to 80 NM-
337 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ732-191245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak out to 15 NM-
337 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt. N
of Dangerous Cape, E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt except E 30 kt N of Dangerous Cape. Seas 12
ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt except SE 25 kt N of Dangerous
Cape. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ734-191245-
Marmot Island To Sitkinak from 15 to 85 NM-
337 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. N of
Dangerous Cape, E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt except E 30 kt N of Dangerous Cape. Seas 13
ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ736-191245-
Chiniak Bay-
337 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ737-191245-
Marmot Bay-
337 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 11 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ738-191245-
Shelikof Strait-
337 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ742-191245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
337 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ740-191245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
337 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ741-191245-
Kachemak Bay-
337 PM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
456 PM AKDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A longwave trough axis remains parked over the Bering Sea into
the North Pacific. On the eastern periphery of this trough, a deep
moisture plume associated with a surface low just south of the
Alaska Peninsula continues to produce moderate to locally heavy
rain across Kodiak Island northward through portions of the
eastern Kenai Peninsula. This axis of moisture will remain fairly
stationary through Friday between the upper low over the North
Pacific and upper ridge over the Yukon, but is expected to move
slightly north tonight bringing a period of heavier precipitation
to the eastern Kenai including Seward northward to Portage and
Whittier. By Friday afternoon, this moisture plume moves back
south, shutting off precipitation in the western Prince William
Sound and possibly Seward as well, but bringing another round of
moderate to locally heavy rain to Kodiak Island. Everything
considered, an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected
through Friday from Kodiak Island northward through the eastern
Kenai. With strong easterly flow off of the Gulf, snow will be
confined to the higher elevations of the Kenai Mountains and
Eastern Turnagain Arm.

In addition to the heavy rainfall, gusty easterly winds also
continue near Kodiak and portions of the Kenai Peninsula due to
a strong pressure gradient between the aforementioned low and high
pressure. Strong easterly gap winds also continue through Portage
and the Turnagain Arm. These winds are expected to slowly
diminish through Thursday night as the gradient begins to relax.

Periods of rain showers are likely to continue for these same
areas through much of the weekend as the upper level low remains
south of the Alaska Peninsula. High temperatures on Friday through
the weekend will rise into the 50s for much of Southcentral, with
Anchorage through the Mat-Su Valley remaining mostly dry over the
next few days.

-ME

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE
ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A high amplitude trough stretches across the Bering Sea with a
central low located south of the eastern Aleutians and western
Alaska Peninsula. East of the trough is southeasterly flow with
warmer, stronger winds, and ample moisture moving across Southwest
Alaska. With flow perpendicular to the mountains, some locations
such as Bethel are being downsloped this afternoon. Warmer air has
allowed some locations to transition from snow to a mix and even
over to rain for Southwest. Mekoryuk and coastal Kuskokwim could
see lingering snow and lower visibility. Strong, gusty winds will
continue for Kamishak Gap through tonight and gradually decrease,
though breezy still for Thursday. West of trough (primarily the
western Bering Sea from the Pribilofs and central Aleutians
westward) is cold northerly flow with convective pockets of snow
showers.

The front associated with the central low is stretching from the
Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, across the eastern Bering Sea, and through
the western Alaska Peninsula. Precipitation is expected to linger
across this front through Thursday morning and is expected to lean
more west through Thursday. Snowfall in the eastern Aleutians is
expected to continue through Friday morning, though intensities
will gradually decrease by Thursday afternoon. There are
challenges with the forecast for identifying the extent and
duration that some locations will remain downsloped. Another
challenge is with how far west the trough will lean, promoting the
intrusion of midlevel warmth that could affect precipitation
type. At this time, Unalaska is expected to remain all snow. Run
to run consistency has been somewhat poor for the front moving
over the eastern Aleutians and although snow is expected to
decrease for Thursday morning, another forecast challenge we are
monitoring is how much precipitation could potentially increase
again for Unalaska Thursday night.

Overall, the general synoptic pattern is expected to change very
little for the next couple days and even somewhat through the end
of the week as unsettled weather continues. Model consensus begins
to diverge later on Friday but guidance hints at the central low
nudging northward and weakening as lobes of easterly waves flowing
cyclonically around the low and supporting that westward movement
of the front and weakening of the trough. An arctic low sinking
through Kamchatka toward the end of this week will also help to
guide the synoptic pattern and shift flow to moist and southerly
for the western Aleutians.

rux

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

An upper level ridge extending from a Northwest Canadian high
center continues its hold across Mainland Alaska through the
forecast period. Over the Gulf of Alaska, a closed low South of
the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island is weakening and beginning
its movement away from the Gulf Monday. In the Far West, a well
developed low out of Siberia moves across the Northern Bering
before weakening and sliding back into the Arctic late Tuesday. A
Western North Pacific low picks up some cold air from across the
Russian Far East strengthening as it moves over the Central
Aleutians by Wednesday. This scenario appears to set up a longer
term duration over the Bering beyond the forecast period.

The remnants of a front extending into Western Alaska from the
Gulf low continue periods of heavier rainfall over Kodiak Island
and the AKPEN through early Monday. Some rain mixed with snow
should occur around Bristol Bay, with areas of new snow further
North along the West Coast. The approach of the Western Bering low
and its front will spread gusty winds and precipitation across
the Aleutians late Sunday, into the Pribilofs late Monday and
continue over the AKPEN through Wednesday. A second North Pacific
low moving East along the Southern Gulf brings another round of
heavier precipitation and gusty winds over Kodiak Island and the
AKPEN late Monday into Tuesday.

Kutz

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. There is still some uncertainty
with the winds coming out of Turnagain Arm and whether they will
continue to bend down Cook Inlet or be able to make it into the
airport. It is looking more likely that these winds will continue
to turn down the Inlet through the night with surface winds
remaining northerly. However, with these northerly winds there
will also be some wind shear over the airport with winds aloft
being from the east to southeast.

&&