Storm Warning 83, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Apr 4, 2024, 2:01 AM AKDT (10:01 UTC)

Expired

Apr 4, 2024, 2:45 PM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

922 
FZAK52 PAFC 041001
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-042245-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 975 mb low moves to 220 nm west of Shemya Fri morning and then
to 270 nm west of Saint Paul Sat morning. Its front moves across
the Aleutians through Sat morning.

$$

PKZ750-042245-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ751-042245-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ752-042245-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ753-042245-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ754-042245-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ755-042245-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ756-042245-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ757-042245-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ758-042245-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ759-042245-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ770-042245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain with snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ772-042245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ771-042245-
Unalaska Bay-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain with snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ773-042245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ774-042245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ775-042245-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ776-042245-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ777-042245-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ778-042245-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14
ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ780-042245-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ781-042245-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain with snow.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.SAT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ782-042245-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ783-042245-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.SAT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ784-042245-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt becoming SW 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft
building to 17 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.SAT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ785-042245-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft
building to 23 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.SAT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ786-042245-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. From
Shemya W, SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 20 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 55 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ787-042245-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 60 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft
building to 30 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 60 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.SAT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ766-042245-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ760-042245-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

PKZ761-042245-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ762-042245-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.

$$

PKZ763-042245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Snow showers.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ764-042245-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ765-042245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ767-042245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
201 AM AKDT Thu Apr 4 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.FRI...E of Saint Matthew Island, W wind 15 kt. W of Saint Matthew
Island, variable wind 10 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Apr 3, 4:23 PM AKDT, 9 hours 38 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
423 PM AKDT Wed Apr 3 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Saturday)...

A high amplitude upper level ridge is centered over the North
Pacific and extends northward to southern Alaska. A series of
weak short-wave troughs are riding up and over the ridge and
across southern Alaska. A weak short-wave which approached
Southcentral this morning and brought considerable cloud cover
is now exiting, with clearing skies behind it. This will be
short-lived as the next short-wave and a surface warm front
reach Bristol Bay and Kodiak Island/western Gulf this evening,
with clouds spreading north and east out ahead of it. The short-
wave and what will become a warm occluded front will then
continue northeastward to Southcentral on Thursday. While the
upper level forcing is fairly weak, there is a tap of tropical
moisture coming up the west side of the ridge. Thus, expect
widespread precipitation to overspread the region tonight through
Thursday.

While all model guidance generally depicts the same large scale
solution, there are lots of differences in the details which
creates a very challenging snow accumulation forecast for
Thursday. A weak triple point low will from over the northwest
Gulf Thursday morning, with ridging just to the north. Meanwhile,
the portion of the occluded front over Southwest Alaska will
track more quickly northward during the day tomorrow than the
portion over Southcentral. This set-up favors development of a
Turnagain Arm jet late tonight, bending into south to west
Anchorage Thursday morning. This will lead to warming
temperatures, likely above freezing as precipitation is moving up
Cook Inlet - and a tricky precipitation-type forecast. Upper level
temperatures look cold enough for snow, so the question is
whether surface/near-surface temperatures warm enough to cause a
mix with or changeover to rain. Meanwhile, southerly winds will
move up Cook Inlet behind the occluded front, also advecting
marginally warmer near-surface air northward across the western
Kenai Peninsula. While precipitation intensity will be light,
there is a high level of uncertainty in snow accumulation with
this initial round of precipitation from the western Kenai to
Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley. As you head north to the
Susitna Valley, southerly upslope flow will enhance snowfall
rates, so confidence is higher in accumulating snow.

The set-up becomes more intriguing Thursday afternoon and evening
as the upper ridge shifts eastward and a series of short-waves
track into Southcentral. Colder air will also begin to advect in
from Southwest Alaska. Model spread grows large with the details
of the upper level short-waves and the location/intensity of
precipitation. Some of the guidance is now indicates a N/S band
of heavier precipitation setting up around midday tomorrow from
the Susitna Valley southward to the western Kenai Peninsula,
positioned in an area of low level convergence between the initial
southeast flow along the Kenai and Front Range Chugach and
increasingly southwesterly flow in Cook Inlet as colder air
filters in. At the same time, one or more short-waves is moving
up Cook Inlet. While not all solutions are on board with this
idea, it is worth monitoring because it could result in higher
snow totals. In particular, the heavier precipitation would likely
be enough to quickly change any rain in Anchorage and the Mat
Valley back to all snow.

A higher confidence scenario settles back in for Thursday night
through Friday morning. Low level flow will shift to west to
northwest while colder air continues to move in and another
short-wave approaches from the west. This favors upslope
enhancement from the southern Talkeetna Mountains southward
across the Mat Valley and Anchorage, with highest amounts right
along the mountains. Snow could linger along the mountains all
the way through Friday afternoon.

Meanwhile, the rest of Southcentral will also see periods of
steady precipitation. The immediate coast will see a mix of snow
and rain, with all snow as you head inland. Precipitation amounts
(and snow accumulation) generally looks light.

The cold air advection will lead to strengthening winds across the
Gulf waters Thursday night through Friday along with gap winds
along the Alaska Peninsula, Kodiak Island, and the eastern Kenai
Peninsula.

Precipitation will linger into Saturday from Prince William Sound
to the Copper Rover Basin, with the upper level trough exiting
northward on Saturday. Again, there will be little break in the
active weather as progressive upper level flow brings a strong
front into the southern Gulf/Kodiak Island on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, BERING SEA, AND ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Saturday)...

With the eastward exit of last night's front, conditions are
mostly dry across Southwest Alaska. Despite a transient ridge
lifting across the area, low stratus and some patchy fog is
leading to intermittent low visibility conditions for many
locations. This evening, a shortwave trough lifting across the
Bering Sea will bring warmer air and another round of
precipitation to Southwest Alaska. Generally 1 to 2 inches of snow
can be expected for most of Southwest Alaska through Thursday
morning. However, rain is likely to begin to mix in later tonight
near Dillingham, which may limit snow amounts, with locations
further south and east (such as King Salmon) seeing primarily
rain.

Behind the trough axis, continued upslope flow and cold advection
off the Bering Sea will lead to snow showers persisting along the
western slopes of mountains through Friday. Any weak disturbances
propagating through the flow may produce periods of snow showers
for lower elevations. The strongest of these features looks to
bring another round of light snow to the Kuskokwim Delta region
on Thursday night. A large area of low pressure situated in the
northern Bering Sea will also cause a persistent fetch of
southwesterly winds which may generate some minor coastal storm
surge impacts through Thursday. The coastal surge threat is
similar to yesterday, with some potential for water levels
reaching 1 to 2 feet above highest astronomical tide. With
shorefast ice along much of the Kuskokwim Bay coastline, the most
significant impact is likely to be some water pooling on the
icepack.

Thursday night, the next North Pacific low approaches the western
Aleutians, pushing its warm and occluded fronts across the chain
into Friday. The low strengthens to near 970 mb, but a pressure
gradient formed with high pressure over the North Pacific will
likely drive winds to storm force along the south side of the low
as it moves into the western Bering Sea on Friday. On this track,
westerly storm force winds, with moderate potential for wind
gusts of 75 mph or greater, push through the central Aleutians on
Friday night. At this point, though, the track of the low is too
uncertain for the issuance of a product, with the EC suggesting a
northerly deviation which would keep the strongest winds out of
Adak and Atka.

The low's triple point dips south and east as the low occludes,
meaning that the warmest air stays further south than the current
trough and previous low. As a result, the Pribilof Islands could
see some potential for blowing snow reducing visibility to one
half mile with the passage of the front. While precipitation falls
as rain along the Aleutians for Friday, snow mixes in Friday
night for the southern Alaska Peninsula, with precipitation likely
falling as all snow for the northern Alaska Peninsula and Bristol
Bay on Saturday. There will also be some potential for blowing
snow along the northern coast of Bristol Bay, with easterly winds
possibly in the 20 to 30 mph range.

CQ

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7) Sunday through Wednesday...

The main feature on the Alaska weather map is an elongated trough
extending from the Arctic through the Mainland into the Gulf of
Alaska. Aside of some minor East-West swaying due to the
transitory shortwaves moving through the pattern, and the influx
of Arctic air over the Western Coastal areas, it remains in place
over Alaska through the forecast period. Most of the active
weather runs across Southern Alaska with upper level support.
There is another well developed system in the queue coming out of
the Russian Far East late Wednesday. Forecast confidence remains
good starting with the deterministic models and then sustaining
the forecast in the transition to the ensembles through midweek.

Gusty Westerly winds with areas of gale force gusts associated
with a well developed surface low spread across the Western and
Central Aleutians Sunday before moving out to sea over the North
Pacific Monday. Possible coastal flooding along the Western coasts
may include ice pushing onshore. Widespread precipitation, begins
as rain ahead of the low, but mixing with or changing over to
snow as the low passes to the East. As the low tracks over the
Alaska Peninsula, another round of gusty winds and local gales are
expected from Bristol Bay and the Pacific side of the AKPEN
around Kodiak Island until midweek as the low slide across the
Northern Gulf. Gusty winds are possible through Turnagain Arm
through Wednesday. Widespread rain or rain mixed with snow extends
along the Southcentral zones all the ways to the Canadian Border,
with mixed rain and snow or all snow further inland.

Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with Light and variable winds are expected
at the start of the evening, with winds becoming predominantly
northeasterly during the evening. The chance for snow returns
overnight, likely between 10-12z. By around 18z on Thursday,
Turnagain Arm winds may begin to affect the terminal. At this
point, total snow amounts are expected to be on the lighter side.

&&

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2024Every storm warning in 2024

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.