Storm Warning 65, NWS Anchorage, AK

489 
FZAK52 PAFC 132321
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-141230-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

The Bering high pressure moves Northward for Fri afternoon. A 952
mb South Kamchatka low moves into the Sea of Okhotsk at 988 mb by
Fri afternoon. Its front moves over the Western Aleutians through
Fri afternoon. A series of weak lows pass to the South of the 
Aleutians through Fri afternoon. 

$$

PKZ750-141230-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ751-141230-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ752-141230-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ753-141230-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ754-141230-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ755-141230-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ756-141230-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ757-141230-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray W of Port Moller.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ758-141230-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ759-141230-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ770-141230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ772-141230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ771-141230-
Unalaska Bay-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ773-141230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ774-141230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ775-141230-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ776-141230-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ777-141230-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ778-141230-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ780-141230-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ781-141230-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ782-141230-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ783-141230-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ784-141230-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ785-141230-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 19 ft in the
afternoon. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ786-141230-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow.
.THU...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain with snow.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ787-141230-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft building to 23 ft after
midnight. Snow and rain.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 25 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ766-141230-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ760-141230-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ761-141230-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ762-141230-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ763-141230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt.
.THU...N wind 20 kt.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt.
.MON...E wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ764-141230-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt.
.THU...N wind 20 kt.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt.
.MON...E wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ765-141230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt.
.THU...N wind 20 kt.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ767-141230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
321 PM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Freezing
spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Freezing
spray.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1148 PM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Friday afternoon)...

From Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday afternoon, the
next significant low will deepen and move across the Gulf towards
Eastern Alaska. Unfortunately, not much insight has been gained
with this system as model guidance remains split between two
camps. Only with the latest runs have models looked like they
might be converging towards a solution. Overall, this means that
there is lower forecast confidence for this time period. It's
likely that forecast winds are a bit underdone as we try to handle
model differences, so keep an eye out for increasing winds
(especially over marine areas) as model agreement and forecast
confidence steadily improve. Improving model agreement will also
help us get a better handle on the potential for blowing snow in
Thompson Pass from Wednesday night through Thursday morning, which
is the primary hazard we'll be monitoring in this time period.
Though forecast confidence is lower in the exact details, we have
moderate to high confidence that the low track will remain mostly
over the Eastern Gulf. This means precipitation will likely be
limited to Prince William Sound and the Copper River Basin, and
northerly flow along the west side of the front will likely keep
precipitation as all snow.

From Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon, a lull in the
weather as the low weakens and moves inland. Much more active
weather expected by Friday evening as a distant North Pacific low
pushes its front east to west across Southcentral, bringing
abundant moisture and stronger winds.

- KC

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A deep trough over Southwest Alaska continues mostly dry
conditions over the next couple of days with cold arctic air
remaining in place. Temperatures, however, are expected to slowly
moderate throughout the next few days as cold air advection ceases
and some more cloud cover moves in. A large North Pacific low
extending its front over the central Aleutians will slowly slide
south and east through tomorrow, but notable cold air advection is
expected to continue snow showers over much of the Aleutians and
the Pribilofs over the next few days.

A front extending off a robust low just southeast of Kamchatka
will then push over the Western Aleutians late Wednesday night
through Thursday morning, producing widespread gale force winds
ahead of it. Precipitation may briefly start as snow, but will
quickly begin to mix with rain or fully changeover to rain through
Friday. A changeover back to mix or snow is possible for western
areas as the low continues to occlude and cold air wraps back in
behind the low on Friday.

-ME

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7) Saturday through Tuesday...

The upper level ridge over the Bering continues a slow transition
into the Russian Far East into the new week. The Arctic trough
that extends over the Western Interior stretches into the Bering
behind the departing ridge, with a closed center over the Southern
Bering by the end of forecast period. A second upper level ridge
moving into the Eastern Interior slows its progress through Monday
before building across the state with help from a shortwave ridge
from the West through Tuesday. With some shortwave support of
North Pacific surface systems and active weather is expected
across the Southern portions of Alaska through the forecast.

Easterly gusty winds associated with a decaying front across the
Aleutians stretch over the Western Bering through Sunday. A well
developed North Pacific low moves over the Aleutians takes over
for Sunday, spreading its influence across the Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula into Southwest Alaska through Tuesday. Mostly
rain, locally heavy moves Eastward through the period. Gusty winds
accompany the low, with areas of gales South of the Aleutians.

In the East, a moderate North Pacific low extends a front into
the Gulf of Alaska as the low moving along the front makes
landfall on Sunday. Warming temperatures with widespread
precipitation are expected from the Alaska Peninsula over Kodiak
Island and all along the North Gulf Coast, diminishing West to
East. Rainy conditions, locally heavy, spread inland from the
Eastern Kenai Peninsula, Prince William Sound across the rest of
the Southcentral coasts, with snow expected further North. A
second North Pacific low brings another round of precipitation to
the North Gulf Coast for Monday through Tuesday.

Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1020 PM AKDT Tue Mar 12 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     Snow             Alyeska                 60.96N 149.10W
03/12/2024  M24.0 inch       Anchorage          AK   Public

            24 inches reported at the top of Alyeska.

&&

MJB