Storm Warning 61, NWS Anchorage, AK

772 
FZAK61 PAFC 302352
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
352 PM AKDT Sat Mar 30 2024

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-311300-
352 PM AKDT Sat Mar 30 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 970 mb low near 56N 158W will move northeast through the 
Shelikof Strait reaching 58N 152W at 972 mb by Sat evening. The 
low will move northeast up Cook Inlet, pushing inland by Sun 
morning. A North Pacific low moves to 59N 142W at 996 mb by Mon 
afternoon. 


$$

PKZ351-311300-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
352 PM AKDT Sat Mar 30 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 30 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 28 ft building to 23 to 30 ft after midnight.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 14 to 26 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ352-311300-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
352 PM AKDT Sat Mar 30 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt diminishing to 25 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 17 to 32 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.

$$

292 
FZAK61 PAFC 311152
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
352 AM AKDT Sun Mar 31 2024

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-010100-
352 AM AKDT Sun Mar 31 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 971 mb low has moved northeast up Cook Inlet, and pushed inland
this morning. A front will push east across Kodiak and into the
western Gulf Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. A North 
Pacific low moves to 59N 142W at 997 mb by Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-010100-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
352 AM AKDT Sun Mar 31 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 20 to 26 ft subsiding to 14 to 19 ft in the 
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ352-010100-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
352 AM AKDT Sun Mar 31 2024

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
504 PM AKDT Fri Mar 29 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A low will move into Cook Inlet tomorrow bringing much more
varied precipitation and winds across the Kenai Peninsula,
Anchorage Bowl, the Copper River Basin and the Mat-Su Valley.
Southeasterly to easterly winds will increase late Saturday
morning through the Turnagain Arm and the Anchorage Hillside with
gusts up to 75 mph. Wind gusts up to 55 mph are expected at lower
elevations through Saturday evening. Snow levels will remain above
1000 feet Saturday resulting in continued high elevation snow
accumulation. Winds, in addition to snow, will also be strong in
the Copper River Basin, including Thompson Pass. Total snow
accumulations ranging from 10 to 20 inches and wind gusts up to 40
mph by late Sunday morning are likely.

Overnight Saturday, wind direction will shift to a more southerly
to southwesterly flow as the low moves over Cook Inlet. This
could result in sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph with
gusts up to 55 mph beginning Sunday morning in the Kenai
Peninsula. In addition to this wind shift, precipitation and
cooler air will arrive causing snow and blowing snow for most of
western and southern Kenai Peninsula; this includes Homer north to
Kenai through most of Sunday. These southerly winds and a period
of snow will reach lower elevation areas of Anchorage late Sunday
morning with wind gusts ranging from 35 to 45 mph. Snow and
blowing snow will accompany the wind direction change in the Kenai
Peninsula.

DJ

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, the BERING SEA and the
ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Friday through Tuesday)...

A large upper-level trough remains parked over the Bering Sea,
with its axis stretching from the Southwest Alaskan coast to the
central Aleutians. This longwave trough is dominated by two upper-
level lows. The first is lifting from south of the Alaska
Peninsula to the Alaskan Interior overnight, while the second
dives southeast from the central Bering, replacing its predecessor
at the base of the trough by Saturday morning.

The first upper-level low will continue to track northeast as its
attendant surface low moves inland. Strong winds will wrap
around the surface low, especially along the backside of the low
where colder, more unstable air will work in. Copious moisture
will also accompany this system, with widespread snow likely for
much of Southwest Alaska. Communities will see up to 6 inches of
new snow Saturday into Sunday along with very strong winds both
ahead of and in the wake of the low.

Over the Bering, northerly flow will bring colder air and snow
showers from west of the Pribilofs south to the central Aleutians.
These features will bring much colder air across the eastern half
of the Bering and western half of the state by Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

The upper air pattern increases its activity during the next week
as a deep shortwave extending from the Arctic through Interior
Alaska into the North Pacific moves into Canada by late Wednesday.
Most of the energy runs along the Southern portions of Alaska
through the week. A moderate ridge follows right behind and exits
Alaska for Friday. Another shortwave slips into Western Alaska by
the end of the forecast period. Further West, a more moderate
closed low pulls into the Central Bering. Greatest confidence in
the early forecast models is supported by deterministic model
combinations, but becomes more uncertain by the end of the week
between the stronger Western-Central Bering low and multiple
weaker shortwaves rotating across the state.

On the Alaska surface chart, a well developed Western Aleutian
low extends a front across the Bering. This front brings sustained
strong Southwesterly winds into Southwestern Alaska and the
Alaska Peninsula for Tuesday. Areas of coastal flooding and beach
erosion are possible from Bristol Bay to the Yukon Delta. High end
gale force winds over the Western Aleutians Tuesday, breaks down
to areas of gale force winds across the Aleutians and Bering, and
diminishing as the low tracks across the Northern Bering.
Widespread rainfall is expected along the Aleutians, AKPEN and
Southwest Alaska with the front. Warmer temperatures spread inland
through the period. Strong winds continue over Kodiak Island into
the Gulf of Alaska and the Southcentral zones into the Copper
River Basin through Friday. Locally heavy rainfall moves over
Kodiak Island late Wednesday into Friday, and spreads to the East
through the forecast period.

Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions thru tonight. Winds this evening will mainly
be gusty and southeasterly but may switch to west or northwest at
times due to the Turnagain Arm jet either being over the airport,
or pulling more to the west which puts PANC into the eddy of these
stronger winds. A strong low arriving the latter half of
Saturday. Any precipitation on Friday should be light, with the
best shot of a rain/snow mix from noon thru the evening hours, and
perhaps a better chance for precip Saturday morning.

&&