Storm Warning 5, NWS Anchorage, AK

663 
FZAK62 PAFC 142352
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
252 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-151400-
252 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

The front of a 984 mb south Kamchatka low lifts from the western 
and central Bering to the northern Bering this afternoon. A 985 
mb low at 54N 177E this afternoon tracks to 62N 178W at 981 mb on
Mon morning before exiting into the Chukchi Sea by Mon evening. 
Its front moves from the western Aleutians and Bering to the 
central Aleutians and Bering on Mon afternoon before dissipating 
by early Tue morning.

$$

PKZ411-151400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
252 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2024

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming 20 kt after midnight. Seas
9 to 16 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-151400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
252 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft building to 18 to
25 ft after midnight.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt becoming N up to 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-151400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
252 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt becoming NE 10 to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-151400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
252 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming N up to 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

141 
FZAK62 PAFC 151213
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
313 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-160300-
313 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 982 mb low at 61N 178W exits into the Chukchi Sea this 
afternoon. Its front weakens over the central Bering and Aleutians
through this evening, and then high pressure spreads across most 
of the Bering and Aleutians through Wed morning. A front weakens 
near the western Aleutians Tue afternoon through Wed morning.

$$

PKZ411-160300-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
313 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2024

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-160300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
313 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt becoming N up to 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ413-160300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
313 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt becoming NE 10 to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-160300-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
313 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming N up to 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
427 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An occluded front associated with a low moving into Southwest is
continuing to work its way up into the western Gulf and runs up
against a shortwave ridge now extending from the eastern Gulf into
Southcentral. This front should continue to push northeast
overnight, spreading a quick-hitting round of light snow up the
Cook Inlet and eastern Kenai Peninsula, shifting up into Anchorage
and the Mat-Su Valleys very early on Sunday morning. Forcing with
the upper trough does not look particularly impressive, with
vorticity not properly aligned with the 500 mb height field to
support strong vorticity advection and deep lift in the mid to
upper levels. Most of the snow we do see making it into the
Anchorage and Mat Valley will be driven by a combination of
upslope flow as winds veer from southeasterly to southwesterly,
and cold air advection behind the frontal passage early on Sunday.
This will limit totals to mainly 1 inch or less along an axis
from Kenai and Soldotna up through Anchorage and Palmer, with a
little higher amounts of 2 to 4 inches expected farther north over
the Susitna Valley through midday Sunday. Models are still
hinting at a low level area of convergence briefly setting up over
Anchorage as winds rushing up the Cook Inlet collide with the
Turnagain Arm wind, so some localized higher amounts will still be
possible on the west and south side of town. Meanwhile, more
steady precipitation will pick up from the eastern Kenai Peninsula
up into Prince William Sound, with enough warm air moving in
ahead of the front to change snow to more of a rain/snow mix for
spots including Portage, Whittier and Seward.

Later in the day on Sunday, the low over Southwest will shift east
into Southcentral as a sharply defined shortwave trough. By this
point, colder and drier air moving into most of the Cook Inlet
region should shut off potential for additional snowfall as the
trough approaches, but this should still help prolong snowfall
into the afternoon and evening for parts of the Mat Valley, Prince
William Sound and Copper Basin until the trough exits towards the
AlCan border late Sunday night into early Monday morning. In
addition, expect offshore flow to develop with gap winds becoming
a bit strong and gusty through the typical spots along the north
Gulf Coast as cooler air and north to northwest flow move in
behind the trough passage with a strong upper ridge building over
the southern Mainland. This same upper ridge should usher in a
much quieter pattern for most of Monday and Tuesday as it
strengthens in place, with the entire region becoming dry and
(barring any issues with low stratus/fog) even sunny for much of
the daylight hours on both days.

- AS

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

Active weather continues for southwest Alaska as a low pressure
system analyzed at 977mb moves towards the Kuskokwim Delta. High
winds across the eastern Aleutians, AK Peninsula, and Pribilof
Islands have begun to subside as the low shifts away from those
locations. Through this evening / early overnight hours, the
associated cold front and strong winds will reach the Bristol Bay
region. The north side of Bristol Bay (Dillingham northward) should
expect to see winds increase to 25-40 mph with precipitation
changing over to snow. Accumulation will be on the low side, with
about 1-2 inches forecast for this region.

Farther north,cold air advection in conjunction with snow falling
into gusty northwest winds will cause reductions in visibility along
the Kuskokwim Delta Coast north of Kipnuk and Nunivak Island. Thus,
a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued to address these impacts
and goes into effect tonight until early Sunday morning.

The Kuskokwim Delta and perhaps western portions of the Bristol Bay
coast will see more snow and rain/snow mix from this front Sunday
night into early Monday morning before drying out for most of the
rest of the day. The tail end of the frontal system from the low
that will now be in the Chukchi Sea will clip the Kuskokwim Delta
and Lower Kuskokwim Valley with more light precipitation Monday
night as a broad ridge builds over the Bering Sea.

By Tuesday, model consensus shows a largely dry forecast for much
of southwest AK and the Aleutian chain with high pressure centered
near the Pribilof Islands.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

By mid-week next week, an upper-level ridge will have moved over
Southern Alaska and the Bering Sea, suppressing active weather
across our region. While the high pressure is in place, a clear
and cool pattern will prevail for most of Southcentral and
Southwest Alaska. While the ridge is in place, models are keying
in on some pockets of energy swinging up and over the northern
side of the ridge, may swing back down south over Southcentral
beginning Wednesday and continuing into the weekend. Timing these
shortwaves is challenging as there is a lot of model spread
regarding where/when exactly these waves move through, however
potential impacts of these waves are still decipherable. Gusty
winds and colder temperatures moving south will likely be the
impact felt for Southcentral and Southwest through the latter half
of the week into the weekend. Areas of outflow winds develop
along the Alaska Peninsula and Southcentral Coasts, with gale
force gap winds through the Barren Islands and Shelikof Strait and
along the Alaska Peninsula Coast into the Eastern Aleutians
developing for Thursday and diminishing Friday. By Saturday
afternoon, there is the potential for a new low to approach
coastal Southcentral from the Gulf of Alaska, however uncertainty
on this system remains high.

-CL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through late this evening, but
cigs and vis may lower to MVFR or IFR as light snow moves in early
Sunday morning. LLWS is possible this evening as east-southeasterly
wind increases over the mountains. This will end early Sunday
morning as a Turnagain Arm wind and up inlet flow makes the wind
unidirectional. VFR conditions should return during the daytime
hours Sunday behind the snow.

&&