Storm Warning 24, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Jan 31, 2024, 3:13 AM AKST (12:13 UTC)

Expired

Jan 31, 2024, 3:45 PM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

534 
FZAK52 PAFC 311213
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-010045-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1000 mb low and a front move inland over the Western Alaska
coast this morning. A 1000 mb low 320 nm north of Shemya exits to
the north later today. A 984 mb North Pacific Low will move 130 nm
southwest of Adak Thursday morning. Its front moves over the 
Aleutians through Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ750-010045-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ751-010045-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ752-010045-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ753-010045-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ754-010045-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ755-010045-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ756-010045-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ757-010045-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ758-010045-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.  and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.  and rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ759-010045-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ770-010045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ772-010045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ771-010045-
Unalaska Bay-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ773-010045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 11 ft after
midnight.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ774-010045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft after
midnight.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ775-010045-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 16 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ776-010045-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft building to 16 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ777-010045-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 19 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21
ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ778-010045-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 21 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 22
ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ780-010045-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ781-010045-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 14 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ782-010045-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ783-010045-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ784-010045-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ785-010045-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
Snow and rain.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ786-010045-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft. Snow showers. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ787-010045-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ766-010045-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow. Freezing spray.
.THU...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft
building to 16 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ760-010045-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas in ice
free waters 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas in ice
free
waters 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. Freezing
spray.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ761-010045-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt.

$$

PKZ762-010045-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt.

$$

PKZ763-010045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.  Snow.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ764-010045-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt becoming N in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt.
.THU...E wind 30 kt.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 30 kt.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt.

$$

PKZ765-010045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt.
.THU...E wind 30 kt.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 35 kt.

$$

PKZ767-010045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
313 AM AKST Wed Jan 31 2024

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 15 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 40 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft. Heavy
freezing spray near the ice edge.
.THU...E of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 50 kt. Seas in
ice free waters 21 ft. Snow. Heavy freezing spray near the ice edge.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 55 kt. Seas in ice free waters 25 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 22 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Jan 30, 5:04 PM AKST, 10 hours 9 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
504 PM AKST Tue Jan 30 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Snow is coming to end for most places across Southcentral. A few
lingering snow showers continue for Prince William Sound
communities and along Kachemak Bay. All precipitation should be
coming to end though by Wednesday with the current system. A few
small flurries and fog is likely around the low lying areas along
Cook Inlet, including Anchorage, the Mat-Su Valleys, and Kenai.
The next system will move into the western Gulf and will bring
more snow, but will weaken as it moves east and is not expected
to move much more north than Kachemak Bay area and the southern
Kenai Peninsula through Wednesday morning.

Cold air will settle into place across southcentral Alaska from
midweek and into the weekend. Highs around or below zero and lows
well below zero are likely for much of the area outside of
immediate coastal locations along the PWS and Gulf of Alaska. As
northerly winds gradually increase Wednesday night and Thursday,
gap winds could be especially gusty and this will allow those gap
wind locations (such as Seward, Whittier, Valdez) to be almost ten
degrees warmer. Any clouds or fog formation of Cook Inlet fog/low
stratus could moderate temps a bit. That said, if conditions can
remain clear one of these nights, it's entirely possible ANC
records its lowest temp since 2009.

-Brown/Rux

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Friday)...

The most prominent feature tracking over the outlook area this
afternoon is a compact, intense low sitting near a strong thermal
gradient between an Arctic airmass sitting in place to the north
and east and slightly warmer air over the open waters of the
Bering Sea. This low's front is just beginning to move onshore
over Southwest, with southeast winds combining with falling snow
now starting to spread into the coastline to cause areas of
blowing snow. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through
early tomorrow morning along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast, where the
worst visibility is expected ahead of the front with
falling/blowing snow overnight. The compact, gale force low
currently north of the Pribilofs will make landfall north of
Nunivak Island then rapidly dissipate as it starts to move inland,
with areas of snow following along the front over Southwest also
diminishing during the morning. Bitterly cold temperatures in the
-20s to -30s will also rise to the single digits above near the
coast on Wednesday, but much colder temperatures are set to
stubbornly hold in place over the Lower Kuskokwim Valley for the
next couple days.

Looking farther out ahead and at the broader picture, a change in
the pattern is set to take shape starting between Wednesday and
Thursday as a ridge builds in and sharpens over the eastern Bering
and AKPen while troughing develops near the western Aleutians and
begins to lift northeast into the southern Bering. This will allow
a southeast to northwest low track to set up along deep southerly
flow setting up between these two features, with a gale force
North Pacific low first crossing the Aleutians into the southern
Bering on Thursday. The developing southerly winds will also help
transport warmer air northwards with time, and this should help
areas of snow near the first system transition to mostly rain
along the central/eastern Aleutians by Thursday morning. Snow will
take more time to transition or mix with rain near the Pribilofs
where colder temperatures with the retreating Arctic air will hold
on for longer, and there could be periods of blowing snow and
reduced visibility near the first low's front lifting slowly
through between late Wednesday night and Thursday. Very strong
winds will also develop between a strong pressure gradient between
the incoming low and Arctic high pressure sitting over the
northern Bering, likely peaking well within storm force range west
of St Matthew Island between Thursday and Friday.

A second low and attendant front will push northeast across the
Aleutians into the southern Bering on Friday, producing another
round of southeast winds in high end gale force range and areas
of rain/snow along the Chain as it passes through. Meanwhile,
the remnant front associated with the first low will move into
Southwest, bringing returning chances for accumulating snow.

-AS

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

An upper level closed low center over the Eastern Interior exits
into the Canadian Provinces for late Sunday. A moderate upper
ridge slides from the Eastern Bering across the Southern Interior
through Tuesday. These two features continue to pump arctic air
across most of the state. Another upper level low is working its
way across the Bering through the end of the forecast period.
Several significant troughs and fronts rotate around this Western
system, bringing periods of more active weather with each passage.
A well developed Eastern North Pacific low extends a trough
through the Eastern Gulf. The initial blended models slip smoothly
into the ensembles through the forecast period.

Between the approaching Eastern Gulf trough and systems pushing
over the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through the weekend, a
relatively steady warming trend spreads across Southern Alaska.
Rain will spread from the Alaska Peninsula, across Kodiak Island
and along the North Gulf Coast. Residual cold air should help
keep any precipitation as snow inland. Colder temperatures remain
an issue across the Bering as arctic air exits the Northern
Mainland through Southwest Alaska, and the Bering low draws frigid
air from the Russian Arctic. The Bering and Aleutians see a
return to active weather and can expect multiple fronts to bring
both rain and snow and gusty winds through the weekend. A strong
front extending from the Bering low comes with gale force winds
through the Eastern Aleutians and lower half of the AKPEN before
diminishing for Monday. The warmest air yet looks to arrive with
rain or freezing rain, both low probability, possibly reaching as
far north as Dillingham Sunday into Monday.

Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Although the main trough has passed, a couple trailing
short-waves could be just enough to produce some light snow
through this evening. The forecast challenge for the next two or
three days will then be fog. The environment is extremely
favorable for the formation of fog, so have made a large
adjustment to the 00Z TAF to add this in. Assuming fog does form,
timing of moving in and out of the terminal will be difficult.
Will have to monitor trends and adjust the TAF accordingly.

&&

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2024Every storm warning in 2024

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.