Storm Warning 208, NWS Anchorage, AK

074 
FZAK52 PAFC 211307
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-220215-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 980 mb low 70 nm SW of Saint Paul moves to 230 nm NW of Adak at
982 mb by Sat afternoon. A 984 mb low remains nearly stationary 
55 nm NW of Shemya through Sat afternoon. A 960 mb North Pacific 
low moves to 80 nm SW of Castle Cape for Sat evening, then 
weakens to 970 mb as it lingers near the Alaska Peninsula through 
Sun afternoon. A 950 mb low begins to push its front into the 
Western Bering by Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ750-220215-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ751-220215-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ752-220215-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ753-220215-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ754-220215-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ755-220215-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ756-220215-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ757-220215-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ758-220215-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ759-220215-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.  Rain and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ770-220215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ772-220215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ771-220215-
Unalaska Bay-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ773-220215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ774-220215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ775-220215-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ776-220215-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ777-220215-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ778-220215-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ780-220215-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ781-220215-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ782-220215-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ783-220215-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ784-220215-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ785-220215-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ786-220215-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...N wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ787-220215-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...N wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ766-220215-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow with rain.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ760-220215-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ761-220215-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ762-220215-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ763-220215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Heavy freezing
spray along the coast.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Snow. 
Heavy freezing spray along the coast.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Freezing
spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ764-220215-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ765-220215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Heavy freezing
spray near the ice edge.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. Freezing
spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.
.WED...N wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.

$$

PKZ767-220215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
407 AM AKST Sat Dec 21 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
502 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Sunday)...

The trailing shortwave from yesterday's gulf low is currently
pushing through the area, bringing a brief period of steadier
precipitation to the Prince William Sound. This light rain and
mountain snow will taper off this morning in the lull between
storms. For today, expect similar conditions to yesterday, though
slightly warmer as increasingly warm air moves into the region.
The next system will first impact Kodiak Island with gusty
northeasterly winds, picking up this evening, followed by rain.
The leading shortwave and surface front will then reach the Sound
around midnight tonight, beginning a period of light to moderate
precipitation along the Gulf Coast, particularly the eastern Kenai
Peninsula. With the low track well to our south, ample amounts of
warm air have been able to move east of the storm, which will
raise snow levels to 2000 to 2500 ft. For the Sound, expect nearly
continuous light to moderate, and occasionally heavy, rain
through the weekend as multiple systems take a similar track from
the North Pacific to near Kodiak Island.

For inland areas the main forecast question is surface temperature
and precipitation type. The 12Z Anchorage sounding is now firmly
into the freezing rain profile, and will likely remain this way
for the foreseeable future. Generally speaking, the upcoming
system will be mostly downsloped, however there will be multiple
periods where there is strong enough upper level dynamics and
enough moisture that rain and/or freezing rain is likely to fall
in the lee of the mountains for areas like Anchorage, the western
Kenai north of Kasilof and the Mat Valley. Currently, this looks
most likely late Saturday night. Temperatures will slowly warm
through the day on Saturday, reaching highs between 29 and 36
degrees for the aforementioned areas. Regardless of the surface
temperature, area roadways that are currently snow covered or have
surface temperatures below freezing are likely to get icy. This
doesn't look like a cold enough setup for true freezing rain that
will accumulate on surfaces like power lines, but area roadways
are likely to become slick (or even more slick than they already
are if we're being honest...). There are still some uncertainties
to work out for Sunday and Monday, but really it looks like more
of the same, coastal rain and chances for rain and freezing rain
for the Cook Inlet areas and Mat Valley. The Interior of
Southcentral should remain dry.

-CJ

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday night)...

The underlying pattern that has already been in place for the past
several days is poised to continue well into the weekend. Several
lows will continue to parade from east to west from the Gulf into
the eastern Bering Sea through early next week, each carried by
easterly flow situated on the northern side of a sprawling,
complex upper level trough stretching across much of the North
Pacific and Bering region. One of these lows is now moving
offshore from the AKPen (Alaska Peninsula) this morning and
westward into the Bering Sea. A few light showers are clipping the
northern side of Bristol Bay on the northern periphery of this
circulation, but otherwise dry and cool conditions are in place
across most of Southwest north of the low. This current system
will weaken as it approaches the Pribilofs later this evening, but
could still drop a quick inch of wet snow before continuing
northwest and effectively shearing apart late tonight.

Attention will then shift to the next low in the continued east-
west low track, which will be a much larger and stronger system
moving south of Kodiak Island by early Saturday. North to
northeast winds will quickly pick up across the AKPen and much of
Southwest, with gales picking up ahead of the low both near
Bristol Bay and to the south of the AKPen throughout the day
Saturday as the low marches west. Precipitation will overspread
portions of Bristol Bay as well as the AKPen and eastern Aleutians
as the low begins to slow down and nearly stall out close to the
Shumagin Islands by Saturday evening. However, strong cross-
barrier flow developing across the Alaska/Aleutian Ranges will
limit how much rain/snow can reach the surface across the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay through Sunday morning. Better
chances for precipitation will be focused across northern Bristol
Bay near the Kilbucks, including Dillingham and Togiak. Quite a
bit of warmer air aloft will be transported in from the east as
the low approaches, but cold air in place over valleys with
persistent northerly winds at the surface could yield a profile
supportive of sleet and freezing rain, most likely along an axis
from Koliganek to Dillingham Saturday evening. Confidence for
seeing any measurable freezing rain is still low, but is
beginning to increase.

Forecast details begin to fall apart late Sunday into early
Monday as yet another low with a more uncertain track begins to
pinwheel up from the Pacific into Kodiak Island and the Alaska
Peninsula from the southeast. Despite the track spread, this low
does not look like it will be as intense as the previous in the
series, and may even begin to merge with the prior system still
drifting over the eastern Bering by Sunday night. Out along the
Aleutians, more benign conditions will finally turn more inclement
as a deep North Pacific low pushes a strong front into the
Aleutian Chain by late Sunday night.

-AS

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

The long term forecast begins with a low in the Gulf centered
near Kodiak Island. This low will allow for a Gale or possibly a
Storm Force barrier jet to form along the Southcentral coastline.
Gusty winds could even extend into the Barren Islands, and
Shelikof Strait regions. This will all depend on the exact
location and strength of the low which is still uncertain at this
time. As for the West, A col forms over the central Aleutians near
Adak with a deep low to the west. The low will allow for storm
force winds and precipitation in the Shemya region. As the low
travels east, gale force winds will affect the Bering as well as
gap winds Alaska Peninsula near Cold Bay on Tuesday.

Back to the Gulf for Wednesday has a low pushing in from the
Southwest. There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding its
track, but gale force winds and precipitation are expected to
accompany the low. Upslope flow along the Southcentral coast and
mountainous regions will likely trigger heavier precipitation, but
areas more inland including the Anchorage Bowl will likely stay
on the dry side due to downsloping. A barrier jet may form with
the passage of the low, but like before, this will depend on the
strength and track it decides to take, which is uncertain at this
time. Winds will die down by Thursday as the low dissipates as it
moves inland. As these winds calm down, downsloping will end and
precipitation will finally be able to make it into the Anchorage
Bowl, but exact QPF is uncertain. In the West for Wednesday, the
low will open into an upper level trough and will funnel cold air
from the north. This will allow gale force winds to linger in the
waters west of the Pribilofs and for widespread light snowfall to
occur across the central Bering and into the Kuskokwim Delta
coast. Thursday has cold air advection continuing to filter down
and the 0F line will pass the Aleutian islands, allowing for
widespread but light snowfall. Also, A low will arrive from the
southeast, which has some implications, but it's track is still
too uncertain to make any hard predictions.

-JAR

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and northerly winds will persist.
Southeasterly winds to around 25 kt aloft will lead to weak wind
shear through the afternoon.

An approaching front will bring another surge of easterly to
southeasterly 20 kt winds aloft beginning early Saturday morning.
Weaker downsloping with Saturday's storm could bring the potential
for freezing rain as early as 12Z Saturday, with precipitation
forecast to change over to rain around 00Z Saturday as surface
temperatures warm up.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
327 PM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

AKZ102-112-121-211500-
Anchorage-Matanuska Valley-Western Kenai Peninsula-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, Eklutna,
Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, Chickaloon, Kenai, Soldotna, Homer,
and Cooper Landing
327 PM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...PERIODS OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN THIS WEEKEND...

Multiple storms will move into the Gulf over the weekend, sending
a series of fronts into the coast. Periods of light rain and
freezing rain are expected Saturday through Monday, with the most
likely time for precipitation being Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Currently the most likely areas to receive rain or
freezing rain are: near sea level locations in Anchorage,
particularly east Anchorage, the Western Kenai Peninsula east of
Soldotna, and the Mat Valley near Palmer. Of the above areas, the
Mat Valley is the least likely to get precipitation, but any
falling will likely be in the form of rain.

Given the somewhat warm surface temperatures of 29 to 36 degrees,
for now, it's unlikely that rain would freeze onto surfaces like
power lines and trees, but rain falling onto snow covered and/or
frozen roadways will likely create icy surfaces. Please use
caution if you will be traveling this weekend, and stay tuned to
forecast updates.