Storm Warning 206, NWS Anchorage, AK

176 
FZAK52 PAFC 201243
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-210200-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 979 mb low 50 nm W of Port Heiden moves to 70 nm NE of Saint 
Paul at 980 mb by Fri evening. It then merges with a 980 mb low 
lingering around 100 nm NE of Shemya through Sat. A 957 mb North 
Pacific low pushes its front westward across Bristol Bay and the 
Eastern Bering Sea as it moves to 60 nm NW of Nelson Lagoon at 
963 mb for Sun morning.

$$

PKZ750-210200-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 14 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ751-210200-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 40 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21
ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ752-210200-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ753-210200-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 17 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ754-210200-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ755-210200-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 30 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ756-210200-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft building to 7 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ757-210200-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ758-210200-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ759-210200-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ770-210200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ772-210200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9
ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ771-210200-
Unalaska Bay-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ773-210200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ774-210200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ775-210200-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ776-210200-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ777-210200-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ778-210200-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ780-210200-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ781-210200-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...N wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ782-210200-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ783-210200-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ784-210200-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...N wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ785-210200-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ786-210200-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ787-210200-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ766-210200-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ760-210200-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 35 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft building to 7 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ761-210200-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ762-210200-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ763-210200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Freezing
spray.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Freezing
spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ764-210200-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ765-210200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Freezing
spray.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Freezing
spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.

$$

PKZ767-210200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
343 AM AKST Fri Dec 20 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
535 AM AKST Thu Dec 19 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A broad trough extends from the Bering into the southern Gulf while
a ridge exists over the Mainland. A strong low is currently
moving into the southern Gulf and will swing west into Bristol Bay
through Friday morning, passing just south of Kodiak Island.
Gusty winds will continue to pick up on the Island today with
increasingly heavy rain. For the Southcentral Mainland, this
front will swing into the Sound, bringing light to moderate
precipitation to Seward and the Kenai Mountains over the next 24
hours with gradually raising snow levels as warmer air moves in
from the Gulf. Precipitation for the eastern Sound will pick up
overnight as a trailing shortwave moves over the area. For the
interior and population centers, light northerly winds will pick
up from the Matanuska Valley down through Homer, but little to no
precipitation is expected to make it over the mountains to the
north of Ninilchik. There will then be a brief break in the
weather Friday afternoon in between storms.

The next storm is expected to take a similar track, moving from
the far southern Gulf, south of Kodiak and then into Bristol Bay.
The overall trend with this system over the past few days has
been to take a more southerly track. The main difference between
this system and the one today will be its overall size. The storm
today is fairly compact, but the front on Saturday's storm is
expected to extend farther to the north, bringing more widespread
wind, rain and mountain snow to the Sound. With the track being
farther to the south, it's looking like the potential for strong
winds along the Anchorage Hillside have diminished due to a strong
north-south pressure gradient down the Inlet. This will cause the
elevated winds moving through the Arm to sharply bend south. The
only caveat to this will be if a mountaintop inversion sets up and
some stronger winds are trapped, but for now this appears not to
be the case and generally speaking the pattern has become less and
less favorable for this scenario.

For precipitation, most of the rain will fall along coastal areas,
though strong shortwaves may spill light precipitation into the
lee-side areas from Palmer south into the western Kenai Peninsula.
Timing of these features will dictate whether or not this falls
as freezing rain or rain. Current forecast thinking is that
temperatures will be in the mid-30s due to winds mixing in warmer
air through the mountain gaps prior to the onset of precipitation
later in the day on Saturday. However, areas that are more
sheltered from the wind may still receive light freezing rain.
Then of course there is the ever present threat of rain falling on
snow-covered roadways and the ice it can generate. One other area
to note will be Valdez. If winds fail to warm the Fjord from the
Lowe Valley, increasingly warm air aloft may cause precipitation
to fall as freezing rain. This is always a hard forecast to make
due to the poor resolution within the complex terrain and the fact
that Valdez tends to hold onto cold air better than most areas.

-CJ

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This morning through Sunday morning)...

There is a broad trough currently stretching across the
Aleutians, bringing gusty winds and rain/snow shower activity to
the chain. Multiple shortwaves embedded within it will rotate
around cyclonically, locally enhancing wind and precipitation as
it traverses westward into Saturday.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through 11 AM AKST this
morning to address minor flooding in low-lying areas around
Kwigillingok. With lowering tides and decreasing winds pushing
further offshore in the coming days, we do not expect any further
flooding for the Northern Kuskokwim Bay.

A low pressure system currently in the Gulf of Alaska will cross
over the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) into the southeastern Bering Sea
Thursday night. Model agreement regarding this system has
improved with the last few runs, and we expect gale-force winds
and rain showers across the Bristol Bay marine zone Thursday night
into Friday morning. Steady easterly winds should limit the
threat of freezing rain for mainland Bristol Bay, but we can't
totally rule out the possibility of some light precip. Upslope
flow against the Wood River Mountains will increase chances for
nearby communities.

The next big player in Southwest Alaska weather comes in the form
of a poorly resolved low moving south of Kodiak Island Saturday
morning. The finer details are fuzzy, but the general
northwestward track across the AKPEN will bring elevated winds to
the Bristol Bay mainland and marine zones for the majority of the
day Saturday. The highest amounts of precipitation will fall on
the Aleutian and Alaska Ranges while the AKPEN and Aleutian
Islands will continue to see shower activity through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

The persistent pattern of troughing across the AKPEN continues
early in the period. The pattern weakens and allows a North
Pacific low to move into the central Gulf by Monday, pushing into
the northern Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday.

As the low organizes over the northern Gulf, rain, snow and windy
conditions can be expected. Precipitation will be enhanced by
terrain for coastal regions. Some downsloping should reduce the
amount of precipitation that reaches inland locations, with the
pattern forecast to persist late in the week.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and northerly winds will persist.
Strengthening easterly to southeasterly winds aloft of about 20
kt could lead to weak wind shear though Friday afternoon.

&&