Storm Warning 178, NWS Anchorage, AK

616 
FZAK62 PAFC 141301
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
401 AM AKST Sat Dec 14 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-150130-
401 AM AKST Sat Dec 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 987 mb low near 60N 172W this morning exits into the northern 
Bering this afternoon. A compact 982 mb low at 51N 163W moves to 
54N 162W at 996 mb by Sun morning, then dissipates. A 938 mb N 
Pacific low near 45N 167W Sat afternoon moves to 52N 178E at 945 
mb by Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-150130-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
401 AM AKST Sat Dec 14 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft building to 21 to 27
ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ412-150130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
401 AM AKST Sat Dec 14 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ413-150130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
401 AM AKST Sat Dec 14 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt increasing to 40 to 55 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SE wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-150130-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
401 AM AKST Sat Dec 14 2024

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 6 to
11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.

$$

177 
FZAK62 PAFC 150037
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-151415-
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

The front of a 937 mb North Pacific low at 49N 173E passes over 
the Western Aleutian chain Sat afternoon. By Sun afternoon the low
lifts to 52N 177E at 945 mb, then into the Western Bering Sea
near 54N 174E at 952 mb Mon afternoon. A second North Pacific low 
moves near 51N 177W at 958 mb Tue morning.

$$

PKZ411-151415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2024

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 40 kt early increasing to 40 to 55 kt. Seas 
14 to 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft building to 23 to 27
ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 26 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ412-151415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2024

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain with snow.
.MON...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-151415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2024

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt increasing to 40 to 55 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-151415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
337 PM AKST Sat Dec 14 2024

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

683 
FZAK62 PAFC 151310
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
410 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-160115-
410 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

The front of a 935 mb North Pacific low sweeps over the Bering
through Tue morning. By Mon morning the low lifts to 52N 178E at 
950 mb, then into the Western Bering Sea near 53N 172E at 955 mb 
for Tue morning. A second North Pacific low lifts to 51N 175W at 
958 mb through Tue morning.

$$

PKZ411-160115-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
410 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2024

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft building to 22 to
27 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 26 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ412-160115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
410 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2024

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain with snow.
.MON...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-160115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
410 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2024

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-160115-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
410 AM AKST Sun Dec 15 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

826 
FZAK62 PAFC 160005
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
305 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-161430-
305 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 945 mb North Pacific low at 52N 176E moves to 53N 178E at 953 mb 
Mon morning, then into the Western Bering near 53N 171E at 957 mb
Tue morning. A second North Pacific low tracks to 51N 175W at 958 mb
Tue morning.

$$

PKZ411-161430-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
305 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 26 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ412-161430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
305 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ413-161430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
305 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-161430-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
305 PM AKST Sun Dec 15 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
532 AM AKST Fri Dec 13 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The primary feature this morning is the mesolow that set-up
yesterday over Cook Inlet and the southern Kenai and is still out in
the Inlet spinning away between Kenai and Ninilchik. This low
brought steady southwesterly flow into the greater Kachemak Bay area
for much of the day yesterday and through this morning. The lower
elevations of Homer have seen periods of rain, a mix, and finally
over to all snow as temperatures inch downwards. Higher elevations
of Homer, including the Bluffs and Diamond Ridge, saw steady
snowfall...becoming heavy at times and leading to some decent
snowfall accumulations. As such, a Winter Weather Advisory is in
place through 9 AM this morning. The low has moved back north and
looks to be steadily weakening, so should see a downwards trend in
precipitation intensity and extent through late morning. However,
could see some light showers linger into the afternoon period,
especially for coastal areas where the upper low over the Gulf
slowly transits east. Elsewhere across much of Southcentral,
clearing skies and cooler temperatures have allowed for pockets of
light fog and/or low stratus to develop this morning...so these
areas may take awhile to mix out with weak ridging in place.

Next up will be the large low that will drop southwards across the
Yukon and into Interior Alaska. The low will start to flatten as it
encounters a ridge over Southwest Alaska. This low will drag much
colder air southwards, along with the potential for light snowfall.
The question will be how far south will snow extend. For now, the
best chances remain over the Alaska Range and Copper River Basin,
but light snow may be able to work down into the Mat Valley and
Anchorage Bowl on Saturday. Models then have the low drifting east
towards the Seward Peninsula, though they are not in great agreement
on the strength or shape of the low. The NAM is the slowest model
solution in moving this feature west and has the low more elongated.
Both the GFS and ECMWF move the low westwards much faster and deepen
it by the time it reaches the Peninsula.

- PP

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Sunday)...

Quite a few updates overnight due to increasing forecast
confidence with the development of a compact low along the front
and, therefore, the track of that front across the region.
Otherwise, still expecting the most active weather across the
Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands from Saturday afternoon through
Sunday afternoon, with moderate to heavy precipitation and the
potential for gusts up to 70-80 mph. For Southwest Alaska,
generally trending cooler with some light precipitation expected.

Diving into the details... a distant low near the Kamchatka
Peninsula is pushing its front eastward across the Bering Sea. The
front brought moderate rain rates and gales to Adak and Atka
overnight, and it's poised to move across the Eastern Aleutians
and Pribilof Islands through today. As mentioned above, there were
some major forecast updates as models came into better agreement
with a compact low forming along the front. The compact low is
forecast to move across the Pribilof Islands from late morning
through early afternoon today, bringing gales as it sweeps
through. The low will then move north between Saint Matthew and
Nunivak Islands before exiting into the Bering Strait. As such,
the current forecast reflects stronger winds around the compact
low, as well as changes to the timing of winds and precipitation
as the front curves, then shears apart, with the northward exit
of the low.

For Southwest Alaska, the main story this morning will be fog
along the coast, and lingering snow for the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley, with about an additional inch of snow expected through
today. The compact low and front approach Southwest Alaska this
afternoon and evening, but impacts should remain low as both
features will be weakening. Expect light rain for the Alaska
Peninsula, with light snow and stronger winds for the Kuskokwim
Delta coast. Rain chances increase by Saturday as a shortwave
moving northwards helps draw in moisture from a North Pacific low.
Precipitation amounts look quite low for now; the biggest
challenge will be honing in on the timing of precipitation given
model disagreements with this weak feature. While the timing is
uncertain, the areas most likely to be impacted look to be Bristol
Bay (west of Dillingham) and the Kuskokwim Delta. Finally, as a
strong ridge develops over Alaska and Canada, expect northerly
flow to usher in a drop in temperatures. Temperatures will
steadily decline, dipping into the single digits and below zero
along the Kuskokwim River, and into the teens for Bristol Bay, by
Sunday night.

From Saturday afternoon through Sunday, more active weather is on
the way for the Bering/Aleutians as a strong low moves in. This
will be a rather impressive system, with central pressure dropping
as low as 940 mb as the system approaches the Western Aleutians.
Given the strength of this system, confidence is very high that
there will be storm force winds around the low, with the potential
for hurricane force gusts. We are currently monitoring the
potential for high winds (75+ mph) through the Western and Central
Aleutians along the front, from Saturday afternoon through early
Sunday morning. Stay tuned as we continue to assess this storm
system.

-Chen

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

The long-term forecast on Monday should begin with high pressure
situated over interior Alaska and along the ALCAN border.
Meanwhile, a large occluded low is forecast over the Western and
Central Aleutians with the front extending southeastward from the
Pribilof Islands to across the Alaska Peninsula. Thus, a very
active pattern should continue across the Bering and Aleutians
with windy conditions and numerous showers (a mix of both rain and
snow) to linger through Tuesday.

Forecast confidence is low with resolving the finer details. It
is increasingly likely that one or multiple lows will develop on
the Pacific side of the Aleutians before wrapping north and
northwestward into the parent upper low over the Bering Monday
through Wednesday. A brief break from unsettled conditions may
develop across the Bering on Thursday as high pressure develops
behind a departing trough into the Gulf of Alaska and the next
upper low into the western Bering.

Elsewhere, all indications are that Southcentral will retain
above normal temperatures with continued southerly flow into the
region. After starting out the period relatively dry on Monday, a
series of lows are progged to lift northward into the Gulf Tuesday
and then again on Thursday. This will result in potentially heavy
shower activity at times, especially into the Gulf coast.

-BL

&&.AVIATION...

PANC...Over the terminal, conditions are expected to remain
largely VFR, with a chance for MVFR ceilings most likely in the
early morning Friday and late Friday afternoon into Saturday
morning. Light southeasterly winds early this morning to become
light and variable by the late morning, persisting through the
remainder of the forecast period.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1012 AM AKST Fri Dec 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     Freezing Rain    4 W Sterling            60.51N 150.91W
12/13/2024  M0.25 Inch       Kenai Peninsula    AK   Public

&&

TK