Storm Warning 160, NWS Anchorage, AK

818 
FZAK52 PAFC 042333
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-051300-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

$$

PKZ750-051300-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 55 kt becoming S 45 kt after midnight. Seas 17
ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ751-051300-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft building to 26 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...S wind 50 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ752-051300-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ753-051300-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt increasing to 55 kt after midnight. Seas
24 ft building to 34 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 33 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft subsiding to 21 ft after
midnight.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ754-051300-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ755-051300-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 55 kt. Seas 35 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 55 kt becoming W 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 33
ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 45 kt becoming SW 35 kt after midnight. Seas
24 ft subsiding to 18 ft after midnight.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ756-051300-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft in the
afternoon. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ757-051300-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. Seas 17
ft subsiding to 12 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ758-051300-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
Rain.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 17 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain with snow.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ759-051300-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas 17
ft
subsiding to 12 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 18 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ770-051300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. From Unalaska E, NE wind 25 kt becoming
W 40 kt after midnight. Seas 14 ft building to 19 ft after midnight.
Rain.
.TUE...W wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain with snow.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 16 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ772-051300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 45 kt. From Unalaska E, NE wind 25 kt becoming
NW 35 kt after midnight. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain with snow.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ771-051300-
Unalaska Bay-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming W 40 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 45 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft. Snow.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ773-051300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. From Unalaska E, SW wind 25 kt becoming W
40 kt after midnight. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 11 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ774-051300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 55 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 17 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ775-051300-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ776-051300-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ777-051300-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ778-051300-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ780-051300-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ781-051300-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ782-051300-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ783-051300-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ784-051300-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ785-051300-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ786-051300-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ787-051300-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ766-051300-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ760-051300-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 55 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ761-051300-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ762-051300-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 55 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ763-051300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Rain showers and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ764-051300-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 55 kt. Seas 19 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ765-051300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ767-051300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
233 PM AKST Mon Nov 4 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...N 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 40 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...N 30 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Seas 14 ft.  and rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
455 PM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Most of Southcentral is in a brief break of active weather, with
an exception being the Western Kenai Peninsula which remains under
a Winter Weather Advisory until 9pm AKST this evening for Homer
north along the Sterling Highway including Ninilchik. Snow
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected with higher amounts
along the Homer Bluff and Diamond Ridge. A weak, but broad wave
will shift northward tonight, overspreading areas of light snow
across Southcentral, including but not limited to, Anchorage, the
Susitna Valley, and the Copper River Valley. Snowfall over
Anchorage is expected to be light and brief, bringing 1 to 2
inches to the city and areas of hillside. The Susitna Valley will
see a slightly more prolonged period of snow, with a shortwave
lingering snowfall over portions of the Parks Highway near
Talkeetna into early Monday morning. Monday will see a return to
benign conditions across Southcentral, however yet another shift
towards active weather will come by late Monday evening.

A robust front will enter the region from the Southwest, moving
over Kodiak Island before midnight Tuesday. This system is
supported by a strong upper level jet, which will amplify the wind
produced, as well as a deep moisture tap from the Pacific, which
will similarly amplify the precipitation potential of the system.
Heavy rainfall and strong winds are expected to begin late Monday
night over Kodiak, persisting into late Tuesday morning as the
front exits and moves over the Kenai Peninsula. Offshore in our
marine areas, storm-force winds are expected off the eastern coast
of Kodiak as well as over the Barren Islands and east of the
Kenai Peninsula.

Early Tuesday morning the front will begin to move over the Kenai
Peninsula and spread heavy precipitation across the area. While
there may be a transition towards a wet snow later in the morning
in places such as Seward, Whittier, and Portage, the precipitation
associated with this system is largely anticipated to comprise of
snow. Due to the winds and snowfall expected, several statements
have been produced for the inclement weather Tuesday and Tuesday
evening. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the Eastern
Kenai Peninsula along portions of the Seward Highway, specifically
for heavy snow with accumulations of 10 to 18 inches possible at
higher elevations such as Turnagain Pass and and Summit Lake.
Another Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Thompson Pass, for
potential Blizzard conditions, winds gusting to 45 mph or more,
and snow accumulations of a foot or more possible. A High Wind
Watch has been issued for both eastern and western Turnagain Arm,
with the eastern sector showing potential for wind gusts up to 75
mph near Portage, and the western sector showing potential for
winds up to 70 mph for the higher elevations of Anchorage Hillside
including Potter Marsh and Bear Valley. Please see mentioned
products for more information.

Downsloping will mitigate the heavy precipitation for the Cook
Inlet areas and southern Mat-Su, but there is strong upper level
support so some rain and snow will likely still fall. Following
the relatively quick passage of the front, exiting to the north,
pressure gradient will relax some weakening the winds across the
area, and precipitation will be mainly upslope on southern facing
mountain ranges. A snow to rain transition is expected for any
areas of lingering precipitation as the front pushes north.

-CL

&&

..SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Just a few areas of light snow still ongoing across Southwest Alaska
and the interior Bristol Bay area this afternoon as weak troughing
lingers over the region. Shortwave ridging moving in tonight will
finally push the trough north with precipitation ending. This will
be a brief respite as the storm-force low is still on track to
deepen as it moves out of the North Pacific and across the Central
and Eastern Aleutians, then tracking north of the Alaska Peninsula
towards Cape Newenham and Kuskokwim Bay. Models have finally
converged and are in good agreement with both the timing and track
of this low. A slight shift from yesterday's track now has the
surface low crossing over to the Bering side between Akutan and
False Pass and upper low tracking over near Dutch Harbor/Unalaska
with the system becoming more stacked as it nears Cape Newenham. The
low will bottom out around 950 mb just before crossing the Aleutians
and southern AKPen Monday night. Winds will quickly strengthen as
the system deepens and storm-force winds are expected to reach the
Eastern Aleutians early Monday morning, spreading into the
southern/eastern Bering, Pribilof Islands and the Alaska Peninsula
by Monday night. In addition, strong north to northwesterly winds
will also develop on the backside of the system so portions of the
Central and Eastern Aleutians will see a somewhat prolonged
period of strong winds from Monday morning through Tuesday night.
Kamishak Gap winds, as well and winds through the bays and passes
will also a period of gales to storm-force winds as the initial
front lifts through.

The other impact from this system will be precipitation amounts and
type. Enough cold air remains in place across the Alaska Peninsula
and Southwest Alaska that precipitation should initially start out
as snow with a transition to a wintry mix and/or all rain as warmer
temperatures move in behind the warm front. The Aleutian Islands
and southern end of the Alaska Peninsula will likely see more rain
or a rain-snow mix with only the higher elevations seeing all
snow. The northern Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay area will see
precipitation begin as snow will a transition to rain-snow mix or
all rain. As southeasterly to easterly winds increase over the
Alaska Range, downsloping should keep the bulk of the
precipitation on the western side of Bristol Bay (generally along
a line from Dillingham to Koliganek and west). Sufficient moisture
with this system will result in decent snowfall rates as the
initial precipitation band moves in and up to 5 inches of
snowfall is possible for lower elevations before warmer
temperatures nudge in. The combination of strong winds and snow
will result in blowing snow concerns for this area and as such a
Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Western Interior Bristol
Bay from Monday night through Tuesday morning. A Winter Storm
Watch has also been issued for Western Kuskokwim Delta and Nunivak
Island as this region is less likely to see temperatures warm
enough for a changeover from snow to rain. Gusts up to 50 mph and
modest snowfall amounts will create blowing snow and likely
blizzard conditions from late Monday night through Tuesday
afternoon. The Pribilofs are an area of uncertainty forecast-wise
as temperatures should stay in the mid 30s but dynamical cooling
will likely result in snow developing. Models also have the
deformation band right over the islands so temperatures and
snowfall rates will be a big factor in snow accumulations.

- PP

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

A large low associated with the remnants of Kong-rey will remain
stationary just off the Kuskokwim Delta coast through the long
range period. Precipitation will be mostly in the form of snow
with a rain/snow mix in the coastal areas. Cold air advection will
slowly filter into Southwest Alaska through the period, which
will make any precipitation solidly snowfall in the Kuskokwim
Delta and Bristol Bay regions as the low remains in place. There
is some potential for coastal flooding in the Kuskokwim Delta
coastline near Kongiganak and Kipnuk on Thursday due to the high
tide and the low. However, with wind speeds of 25 to 30 mph, the
odds of flooding occurring is on the lower side.

A broad low will move into the Gulf of Alaska by Thursday. Gusty
gale force winds will affect Southcentral coastlines, especially
near Kodiak Island, the Barren Islands, and Kamishak Bay before
weakening on Friday. There is uncertainty with the track so the
winds may be weaker if the low takes an easterly track.
Precipitation across the Southern mainland coastline is expected
with this low. The coasts will see mostly rain with higher
elevations seeing mostly snowfall. Inland areas will be mainly dry
but if they receive any precipitation, it will be in the form of
light snow. Another broad low will impact Southern Alaska on
Sunday. There is even more uncertainty with the low, but models
show that it may be more impactful than Thursday's low. It will
bring strong gale force winds for the marine regions of Southcentral.
It will also allow for more heavy rains across the Gulf coastline
and snowfall further inland and at higher elevations. The end of
the period brings us back to the West, where another low passes
south of the Aleutian Islands in the north Pacific. Uncertainty
arises but this low may impact the Gulf in the future.

-JR

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Periods of light snow will continue through early Monday
morning as an upper trough lifts onshore of Southcentral. It is a
fairly complex set-up in the upper levels with an upper low
forming in the vicinity of Prince William Sound, stopping the
northward progression of the trough and creating some uncertainty
in where snowfall will persist. The end result will be some
variations in snowfall intensity and perhaps even some breaks in
snow which will lead to some ups and downs in ceiling/vis. Largely
expect MVFR conditions to prevail, but with light winds and a
moist environment, an IFR ceiling could develop as snow tapers off
Monday morning and linger through the morning hours. A slight
increase in low level flow should lead to improving conditions
Monday afternoon.

&&