Storm Warning 154, NWS Anchorage, AK

318 
FZAK61 PAFC 162341
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
241 PM AKST Sat Nov 16 2024

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-171415-
241 PM AKST Sat Nov 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 982 mb low complex at 59N 145W breaks down and exits into the 
eastern Gulf tonight. A new 984 mb low near 59N 144W quickly 
replaces the previous low Sun morning and tracks to 55N 143W at 
994 mb by Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-171415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
241 PM AKST Sat Nov 16 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow showers.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ352-171415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
241 PM AKST Sat Nov 16 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 24 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
425 PM AKST Fri Nov 15 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Friday through Sunday evening)...

A low pressure system centered over the Kenai Peninsula continues
to spread precipitation across Southcentral. This low has brought
with it relatively warmer temperatures, keeping areas such as
Anchorage in the lower 20s overnight. A front attached to the
surface low is draped over Prince William Sound with a mix of rain
and snow continuing along the immediate Southcentral Coast. The
backside of the low has moved over western Southcentral, and is
oriented favorably to avoid much in the way of downsloping. This
signals a long duration light snow event for Anchorage, Mat-Su,
and the Western Kenai Peninsula. Please see the Special Weather
Statement issued this afternoon for more information.

Temperatures over Southcentral will begin to gradually cool down
following the slow departure of the low into the northern Gulf of
Alaska, taking the warm air presence with it. As it departs, cold
air will fill in on the backside, causing the gradual drop in
temperatures but also bring a return to the gusty winds out of
the gaps near Seward, Whittier, Valdez, and Thompson Pass. as the
colder air builds over Southcentral and each shortwave both
reinforces the cold air and aids in the development of a trough of
low pressure over the Northern Gulf. Storm-force winds are likely
from Kamishak Gap through the Barren Islands. Gale-force winds
are also likely, with gusts approaching storm-force, through the
gaps along the immediate Southcentral coast, Alaska Peninsula, and
Kodiak Island through early next week as an arctic airmass
settles over the region. The arctic airmass will lower
temperatures across Southcentral to well below normal for this
time of year. Low temperatures for the first half of next week
could drop to 15 to 25 below for interior locations, 5 above to 10
below around Cook Inlet, and to around 10 above closer to the
Prince William Sound coast.

-CL

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Conditions will continue to calm down through tonight as our
impactful low pressure system continues to move towards the Gulf
of Alaska. Scattered snow showers are still possible as lingering
moisture from the low remains over portions of Southwest Alaska.
Tonight will begin our trend of decreasing temperatures over the
interior, with many places dropping below 10 degrees by tomorrow
morning. This trend will continue throughout the weekend as
persistent north/northwesterly flow drives in cold air from the
Arctic. Additional energy from a trough located over the Bering
Strait will increase the potential for more widespread snow
showers over the eastern Bering and Southwest, lasting through
Monday morning.

Over the rest of the Bering, a weak shortwave low will cross over
the central Aleutians by Saturday evening and provide a quick
round of snow for the islands. A more compact low will skirt past
the western Aleutians on Sunday, though this system will have
enough warm air to result in a mostly rain-centric event. There
are still some model discrepancies on the track of this low, so
continue to follow the forecast for more updates.

The big point of concern will be the deep plunge in temperatures
Sunday night as the trough currently located over the Bering
Strait dives towards Southwest. Dry and bitterly cold air will
settle over the interior as a strong ridge builds in over most of
the Bering. By midnight Sunday, most areas will remain well below
zero past the end of the forecast period, with lows dropping
below -10 in lower lying areas.

-BS

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

The persistent low over the Gulf of Alaska starts to move off to
the southeast, as a building ridge of high pressure moves into
the region from the Bering Sea. This high brings colder
temperatures and clearing skies to South Central and the Copper
River Valley through Friday as the high remains quasi-stationary
over the region.

In the west, a North Pacific low will enter the Eastern Bering
Sea thursday evening. This system will be forced northeasterly
across the region as it rides over the entrenched high pressure
ridge encompassing much of the State. This will bring moderately
strong southerly winds across the Western Aleutians and into the
Central Bering Sea through the end of the period.

&&.AVIATION...

PANC...Snow is expected to continue into Saturday morning bringing
visibilities down to IFR levels and ceilings to MVFR to IFR levels.
The snow should taper off by noon Saturday and bring the
visibility back to VFR. The ceilings may linger at MVFR levels a
bit longer after the snow ends. Northerly winds will also increase
Saturday through the day. This should help to slowly dry out the
atmosphere and get visibility to VFR with the end of the snow as
the winds should prevent any fog from developing, but ceilings
will probably take longer to improve.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1114 PM AKST Fri Nov 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     Snow             Russian Jack Park       61.20N 149.79W
11/15/2024  M2.0 Inch        Anchorage          AK   NWS Employee

            Updates previous report from Russian Jack
            Park. 1.1 inches of snowfall since 10:30 am.
            2.0 total since 3 pm yesterday.

&&