Storm Warning 121, NWS Anchorage, AK

699 
FZAK61 PAFC 282257
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
257 PM AKDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-291245-
257 PM AKDT Mon Oct 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 995 mb low at 55N 155W exits the Southeast Gulf near 54N 140W 
at 980 mb for Wed morning. Its front extends across the Gulf 
through Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-291245-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
257 PM AKDT Mon Oct 28 2024

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 25 to 40 kt becoming N 35 to 50 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 to 12 ft building to 11 to 19 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.

$$

PKZ352-291245-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
257 PM AKDT Mon Oct 28 2024

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 18 to 28 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 25 to 40 ft.

$$

967 
FZAK61 PAFC 291227
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
427 AM AKDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-300230-
427 AM AKDT Tue Oct 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 979 mb low at 57N 147W Tue morning exits the Southeast Gulf 
near 55N 140W at 985 mb for Wed morning. The front of a 996 mb 
low at 57N 155W enters the Western Gulf for Thu morning. 

$$

PKZ351-300230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
427 AM AKDT Tue Oct 29 2024

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W to NW wind increasing to 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 28 ft.

$$

PKZ352-300230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
427 AM AKDT Tue Oct 29 2024

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 27 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 to 40 kt becoming W 15 to 30 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 29 ft.

$$

189 
FZAK61 PAFC 292329
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
329 PM AKDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-301345-
329 PM AKDT Tue Oct 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 974 mb low at 58N 145W Wed morning exits the Southeast Gulf 
near 55N 139W at 981 mb by early Wed morning. A front off a 996 mb
low at 57N 156W enters the Western Gulf Thu morning. 

$$

PKZ351-301345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
329 PM AKDT Tue Oct 29 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 28 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-301345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
329 PM AKDT Tue Oct 29 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 27 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 to 40 kt becoming W 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 29 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

410 
FZAK61 PAFC 301204
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
404 AM AKDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-310200-
404 AM AKDT Wed Oct 30 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 982 mb low exits the Southeast Gulf near 56N 140W Wed morning. 
A front from a 996 mb low at 56N 152W enters the Western Gulf 
Thu morning. The low transits the Western Gulf to 57N 144W at 
1000 mb by Fri morning.

$$

PKZ351-310200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
404 AM AKDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 20 to 35 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ352-310200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
404 AM AKDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 16 to 26 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 24 to 39 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

064 
FZAK61 PAFC 302345
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
345 PM AKDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-311330-
345 PM AKDT Wed Oct 30 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front stretching from a 965 mb low at 57N 175E enters the 
Western Gulf Thu morning and forms a new 995 low at 57N 155W Thu 
evening. The low transits the Western Gulf to 56N 146W at 1000 mb 
by Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-311330-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
345 PM AKDT Wed Oct 30 2024

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-311330-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
345 PM AKDT Wed Oct 30 2024

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 35 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 24 to 39 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
443 PM AKDT Sun Oct 27 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Today through Tuesday evening)...

48 HOUR FOCUS:

* Widespread snow for much of Southcentral arrives tonight and
  continues through Tuesday evening impacting the daily commutes.

* The heaviest snow is likely early Tuesday morning through late
  Tuesday morning.

* Winter storm watches for western Kenai Peninsula and the
  Anchorage areas have been issued in addition to a winter weather
  advisory for the Matanuska Valley.

A deep trough currently in Southwest Alaska and a low currently
in the North Pacific south of the Alaska Peninsula will bring a
mix of rain and snow to Southcentral Alaska over the next 48
hours. Through Tuesday, the low will progress along the eastern
coast of Kodiak Island and the Kenai Peninsula toward Prince
William Sound. Concurrently, the trough moves almost due eastward
across Southcentral Alaska. These two features' interaction will
result in a combination of rain, rain/snow and snow to
Southcentral.

Digging deeper, continued southwesterly winds bringing warmer air
to Kodiak Island and southern Kenai Peninsula will keep
precipitation as rain for most of the event. Colder air arriving
late Tuesday morning changing the rain to a rain/snow mix and then
light snow with accumulations ranging from a trace in Kodiak City
to two inches in Homer. Farther northward on the Kenai Peninsula,
cooler air will arrive faster resulting in a longer snowfall
period. Therefore, snowfall accumulations varying from 6 to 12
inches on the western side to 3 to 6 inches on the eastern side.

The aforementioned southwesterly flow into Turnagain Arm,
Anchorage and Whittier will result in varied snowfall
accumulations. The greatest chance of a rain/snow mix exists on
the eastern coast of the Kenai Peninsula and Turnagain Arm. With
a strong easterly wind, a longer period of rain/snow showers is
expected to bring snow accumulations closer to the trace to 3
inches range in these areas at sea level. A change over to all
snow is expected in Anchorage and the Mat- Su Valley resulting in
6 to 12 inches of snow accumulating in these locations by Tuesday
evening. High confidence for a period of intense snowfall is
expected over the Kenai Peninsula northward to the Mat-Su Valley
early Tuesday morning through late Tuesday morning. Though
confidence is low regarding the band's exact location, where it
sets up would cause brief periods of localized higher snowfall
amounts and poor visibility.

As the low exits Southcentral Alaska, it deepens to 977 mb in the
northern Gulf of Alaska bringing interior snow, coastal rain and
gale to storm force winds in the Northern Gulf of Alaska and
Prince William Sound as well as gap winds in the usual locations
Tuesday night/Wednesday.

-DJ

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (This afternoon through Wednesday evening)...

* Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 7 PM this evening until 6
  AM Monday for interior Bristol Bay from Dillingham north,
  including Koliganek and New Stuyahok.

* Special Weather Statement for moderate snow across the Lower
  Kuskokwim Valley tonight through Monday morning.

The well advertised frontal system is currently coming ashore of
the Kuskokwim Delta and northern Bristol Bay coasts this
afternoon. Snow and mixed precipitation have been observed across
Nunivak Island and Kipnuk this afternoon. The front will continue
pushing inland overnight tonight through Monday. Precipitation
will begin as snow this evening across Bristol Bay before a
transition to freezing rain overnight tonight into early Monday
morning. The freezing rain threat is primarily for interior
locations from Dillingham northward, including Koliganek and New
Stuyahok. Thus, the Winter Weather Advisory continues to remain in
effect for those locations due to the freezing rain threat.
Freezing rain should then transition to rain Monday morning;
although there continues to be some uncertainty in exactly when
the transition will occur. If cold air hangs on longer, expect a
few hundredths of an inch of ice accumulation. If cold air erodes
quicker, expect mainly a glaze.

Meanwhile, the Kuskokwim Delta can expect light snow through this
evening, especially across interior locations where cold air hangs
on longer. Accumulations will be light and in the 1 to 3 inch
range. Further inland, locations like Aniak could also see a brief
period of freezing rain or mixed precipitation as warmer air aloft
looks to sneak in tonight. Cold air aloft works back in late
tonight into early Monday morning and changes precipitation back
to snow. Generally expect 3 to 6 inches of snow across the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley, especially from Crooked Creek southeastward to
Lime Village. Totals could be a little bit higher than that
towards the Western Alaska Range.

The front continues moving eastward to Southcentral Alaska through
Monday. Cold air begins to filter back in as a ridge across the
central Bering Sea looks to amplify. Strong cold air advection
along with upper-level energy will help to drive gusty gap winds
through the bays and passes of the southern Alaska Peninsula
starting Monday night and persisting through Tuesday evening.

Attention then turns to the next weather-maker which will take
form of a storm-force low Monday evening. The storm-force front
will impact the western Aleutians and western Bering late Monday
night into Tuesday morning. Hurricane-force gusts are possible
with this system. The front will weaken to gale-force as it
reaches the central Aleutians Tuesday. However, as the storm
enters the far western Bering, southwesterly storm-force winds
are likely in the western Bering and western Aleutians on the
southern flank of the storm Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
initial front, remaining gale-force, will make it to coastal
Southwest by Wednesday afternoon. Confidence in precipitation-type
is currently low. Generally expected a rain/snow mix to start
before going over to rain at the coast, with more in the way of
snow inland where cold air hangs on longer.

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

The Alaska Weather map continues to display an energetic weather
pattern through the forecast period. Model confidence remains
good, although some strengths and tracks need adjustments to
maintain the overall clustering. Most of the active weather occurs
across the Southern portions of the state through the weekend. A
broad upper level low over the Bering serves as the conduit for a
series of strong surface low and fronts passing West to East. The
first feature is a frontal wave across the Alaska Peninsula and
over Kodiak Island Thursday that pushes across the Gulf of Alaska
by Friday. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds less than gale
force spread along the North Gulf Coast with this system.

Out West, a second well developed low moving over the Central
Bering with central pressures briefly below 960 mb through Friday
before weakening. Heavy rains spread over the Aleutians and Bering
into the Alaska Peninsula. Moving into the region from the North
Pacific, a second stronger low with central pressures in the 950s
brings locally heavy rains high-end gales with storm force gusts
up to the Aleutians Friday, spreading with the low over the AKPEN,
Southwest Alaska and Kodiak Island Saturday. Areas of heavy rains
continue to spread along the North Gulf Coast through Sunday.
Highest winds are expected to remain on the Pacific side of the
AKPEN, around Kodiak Island and diminishing as they move across
the Gulf by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist at the
terminal through 12Z tomorrow morning. Conditions will then
rapidly deteriorate after 15Z as light snow arrives. With deep
southwest flow, ceilings will drop with the arrival of the snow
but is expected to remain at mainly MVFR levels through the day
Monday, before IFR ceilings and visibilities with heavier snow
begin Monday evening.

&&