Storm Warning 112, NWS Anchorage, AK

304 
FZAK62 PAFC 021213
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
413 AM AKDT Wed Oct 2 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-030045-
413 AM AKDT Wed Oct 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 989 mb low near 58N 176W moves to 57N 167W at 1002 mb by Wed
afternoon and dissipates by Wed night. A strong low enters the
western Bering near 58N 175E at 961 mb Thu morning. The low
continues east to 59N 167W at 954 mb by Fri morning.

$$

PKZ411-030045-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
413 AM AKDT Wed Oct 2 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SW 40 to 55 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 ft building to 9 to 17 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...W wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 30 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-030045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
413 AM AKDT Wed Oct 2 2024

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 20 to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 to 9 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming W 40 to 55 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ413-030045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
413 AM AKDT Wed Oct 2 2024

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft building to 21 to 36
ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 26 to 38 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-030045-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
413 AM AKDT Wed Oct 2 2024

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 to 10 ft building to 10 to 17 ft in the
afternoon.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

483 
FZAK62 PAFC 022351
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 2 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-031400-
351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1001 mb low at 58N 167W moves to 58N 166W at 1002 mb Thu morning 
and dissipates Thu afternoon. A strong low enters the western Bering
near 57N 165E at 971 mb Thu morning. The low continues east to 59N 
169W at 953 mb Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-031400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 2 2024

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SW 50 to 65 kt after
midnight with gusts to 80 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft building to 15 to 23 
ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...W wind 50 to 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt in the morning. Seas 
21 to 36 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 23 to 33 ft subsiding to
17 to 27 ft after midnight.
.FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-031400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 2 2024

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 30 to 45 kt becoming W 40 to 55 kt in the
afternoon with gusts to 65 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft building to 17 to 32
ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 to 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Seas 22 to 37 
ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-031400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 2 2024

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SW 30 to 45 kt after
midnight with gusts to 55 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 9 to 14 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.THU...W wind 50 to 65 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft 
building to 27 to 41 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 50 to 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt diminishing to 
40 to 55 kt after midnight. Seas 28 to 42 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 34 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-031400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
351 PM AKDT Wed Oct 2 2024

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft building to 15 to 23 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Seas 22 to 37 
ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
503 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The low pressure system that deepened quite rapidly yesterday over
the Gulf continues to move eastwards this morning. Satellite imagery
shows it to be tightly wound occluded system this morning as it
moves into the far western Gulf with quite a bit of dry air
entraining into it. Winds have steadily been decreasing this morning
from west to east as the system exits the central Gulf. Cloud cover
associated with this system is also steadily eroding but will likely
see some mid and upper level cloud cover linger into the afternoon
for areas along the Gulf coast. As the system moves east, the steep
pressure gradient over the coastal mountains (that resulted in gusty
winds developing through the north/south gaps and inlets yesterday
afternoon and evening) has greatly relaxed and most winds have
slackened significantly. The offshore flow and a push of dry air
from the north has allowed for dewpoints in the teens and 20s to
push into the Copper River Basin and down into the Mat-Su Valley,
though not as far south at the Anchorage Bowl. For areas in the
Copper Basin where skies have remained clear and winds have calmed,
temperatures will fall to near freezing or colder this morning.
Elsewhere, winds and/or more cloud cover will help to prevent
temperatures from falling to low. However, with clearer skies and
light winds anticipated overnight tonight, we should see more areas
reaching those colder temperatures tomorrow morning.

We will see a brief lull today before the next system moves into the
Gulf by midweek. The low will lift into the northern Gulf as it
weakens, bringing showery conditions to the coastal zones through
Thursday.

- PP

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Today through Thursday)...

Current satellite, surface observations and radar show widespread
clouds and showers over the Central Aleutians. These showers are
associated with a weak low that will move southeastward this
evening through the AK Pen. A second low will move through the
Bering Sea bringing continued rain to the Central Aleutians
tomorrow. The rain will stretch into the AK Pen tomorrow evening.
Overall amounts remain light with two-day totals ranging from
0.20 to 0.02 inches. In addition to this rainfall, wind gusts
ranging from 20 to 30 mph are likely through tomorrow. Weak
ridging builds into Southwest Alaska today.

Confidence continues to increase to moderate that a fall
Kamchatka Low will move into the Bering Sea later this week.
A low pressure system from the remnants of Typhoon Jebi will move
into the Bering Sea. Current tracks and guidance indicate this
low would deepen in the Bering Sea Thu/Fri and move east-
southeastward toward the Pribilof Islands and AK Pen. West-
northwest hurricane force winds on the backside of this low as
early as Thursday afternoon in Shemya and Thu evening/Fri morning
in Central Aleutians are probable. Sea heights are expected to
increase in conjunction with these winds as well.

-DJ

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The focus in the long-term continues to be a strong storm system
moving from the southeastern Bering late Friday across the AKPen
and into the western Gulf by Sunday morning.

There is high confidence that sustained winds will reach storm
force (55-73 mph), with embedded hurricane force (> 73 mph)
gusts across the central and eastern Aleutians Friday as the
storm system reaches its maximum intensity. As the low moves south
of Kodiak Island Saturday, gusty northwesterly winds will continue
across the eastern Aleutians and AKPen, albeit slowly trending
downward, with widespread gale-force winds and storm-force gusts,
through the weekend.

Farther east, the occluded front associated with the low will
parallel the Southwest Alaska coast Friday morning, bringing rain
and southeasterly winds up to 50 mph for coastal communities. The
storm track has shifted a bit farther south and west in recent
runs, and, as such, the predominant east-southeasterly winds along
this front should keep any coastal flooding concerns at bay.
Interior Southwest will also see an increase in gap winds on
Friday, with these winds becoming more easterly through the day
before shifting to the northeast and diminishing on Saturday.

The aforementioned occluded front enters the western Gulf late
Friday with rain and strong easterly gales across Kodiak Island.
The front then lifts to the north Gulf coast Saturday morning as
the parent low moves south of Kodiak Island. Discrepancies in the
track and timing of northward progression of the front grow by
Saturday; however, expect a strong easterly barrier jet to develop
along the coast at some point on Saturday. The east-southeasterly
flow aloft out ahead of the front will also drive copious amounts
of moisture into the coast and over the coastal mountains.
Precipitation will continue into Sunday; however, the position of
the front will dictate where the heaviest precipitation falls.
Currently, the EC and GEM drive the front inland with the waves of
more showery precipitation moving south to north, potentially
bringing heavier rain to places like Seward and Valdez. The GFS
keeps the front offshore, with a persistent easterly flow favoring
heavier precipitation from Cordova through Prince William Sound
into Whittier.

Whatever the solution, expect unsettled conditions along southern
coast, AKPen, and eastern half of the Aleutian Chain through the
weekend with gusty winds and rounds of moderate to heavy rain.

-TM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light southerly winds are expected
through the forecast period.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
1100 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

AKZ195-021400-
Pribilof Islands-
Including the city of Saint Paul
1100 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS FOR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS FROM EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING...

A strengthening storm system is expected to move across the
central Bering Sea Thursday morning through Friday morning. A
front will move over the Pribilofs Thursday morning bringing
southeasterly gales and rain through Thursday afternoon.
Southeasterly wind gusts of 50 mph are possible as the front moves
over the Pribilof Islands.

Winds will turn westerly behind the low as it moves east Thursday
night into Friday. West-northwesterly gusts to of 55 to 65 mph
are expected Friday morning through Friday evening before slowly
diminishing. Wave heights could reach as high as 15 to 20 ft.

The duration and magnitude of the westerly winds will be highly
dependent on storm track. A more southerly track will allow for a
lull in the strongest winds late Thursday through early Friday
morning before the winds shift to the west. A more northerly storm
track will allow for a quick wind shift from southeast to west and
a longer duration of stronger winds. If the northerly track takes
shape, wind gusts could be stronger, closer to 60 to 70 mph.
However, confidence in this storm track and the higher wind gusts
is low.