High Wind Watch 13, NWS Anchorage, AK

548 
WWAK72 PAFC 101221
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
421 AM AKDT Thu Oct 10 2024

AKZ185-110245-
/O.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0013.241011T1500Z-241013T1800Z/
/O.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0019.241011T1600Z-241013T0200Z/
Eastern Aleutians-
Including the cities of Nikolski and Unalaska
421 AM AKDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM AKDT 
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 50 to 60 mph with gusts up to 75 mph expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Aleutians.

* WHEN...From 8 AM Friday to 6 PM AKDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property, and 
  cause power outages. Travel will be difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This will be a long duration event similar to 
  what was observed during the October 3rd-4th system with strong 
  winds persisting Friday morning through most of the day Saturday. 
  Winds will slowly come down Saturday evening. However, 40 to 50 
  mph gusts could persist into Sunday. The best chance for 75 mph 
  gusts or higher will be through channeled terrain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind. Prepare for the possibility of widespread 
power outages. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

AKZ181-110245-
/O.CON.PAFC.HW.A.0013.241011T1800Z-241013T0000Z/
Alaska Peninsula-
Including the cities of Sand Point and Cold Bay
421 AM AKDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds 50 to 60 mph with gusts up to 75 mph possible.

* WHERE...Alaska Peninsula, west of Nelson Lagoon.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...High winds could move loose debris, damage property, and 
  cause power outages. Travel could be difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high wind watch means there is potential for a hazardous high wind 
event. Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this 
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe 
location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

DAN

196 
WWAK72 PAFC 110025
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
425 PM AKDT Thu Oct 10 2024

AKZ181-111500-
/O.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0013.241011T1800Z-241013T0000Z/
/O.EXB.PAFC.HW.W.0019.241011T2000Z-241012T1200Z/
Alaska Peninsula-
Including the cities of Cold Bay and Sand Point
425 PM AKDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 4 AM AKDT 
SATURDAY FOR FALSE PASS AND KING COVE...

* WHAT...North winds 50 to 60 mph with gusts up to 75 mph expected.

* WHERE...Alaska Peninsula, particularly the communities of False 
  Pass and King Cove.

* WHEN...From noon Friday to 4 AM AKDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...High winds could move loose debris, damage property, and 
  cause power outages. Travel could be difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds will through bays, and 
  mountain gaps and passes on the south side of the Peninsula. 
  Depending on the exact track of the system, Sand Point could also 
  have a brief period of strong northerly winds up to 60 mph.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind. Prepare for the possibility of widespread 
power outages. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

AKZ185-111500-
/O.CON.PAFC.HW.W.0019.241011T1600Z-241013T0200Z/
Eastern Aleutians-
Including the cities of Unalaska and Nikolski
425 PM AKDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM AKDT 
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 40 to 60 mph with gusts up to 70 mph expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Aleutians.

* WHEN...From 8 AM Friday to 6 PM AKDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property, and 
  cause power outages. Travel will be difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This will be a long duration event similar to 
  what was observed during the October 3rd-4th system with strong 
  winds persisting Friday morning through most of the day Saturday. 
  Winds will slowly come down Saturday evening. However, 40 to 50 
  mph gusts could persist into Sunday. The best chance for 70 mph 
  gusts or higher will be through channeled terrain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown around 
or damaged by the wind. Prepare for the possibility of widespread 
power outages. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

CJ

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
503 AM AKDT Wed Oct 9 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Friday)...

A cold upper level low in the Interior of the state has a trough
extending over the Alaska/Aleutian Range and meeting up with a
weak surface low in the Gulf of Alaska. This set up is conducive
for the development of shower activity along the north Gulf coast
and eastern Kenai Peninsula this morning with that activity
spreading northward as the day progresses and into tomorrow.
While that is the big picture, the challenge comes in the details,
and especially precipitation type for tonight into Thursday. With
little temperature advection to bring in colder air, the airmass
may not be cold enough to bring snow down to sea level for
Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley. However, temperatures will be
close and the late night and early morning hours could cool things
enough to mix some snow in with rain showers for these areas.
At this time, we are looking for snow levels to be in the 500 to
1000 ft range along the Kenai and Chugach Mountains. This means
that any precipitation overnight for areas from around Hillside
drive or higher in Anchorage should see snow. Turnagain Pass is
also likely to see some snow with these showers, and maybe even
during the day today. Chickaloon Pass may also see snow tonight
into Thursday morning. Amounts in any of these places are not
expected to be very high, but it may be the first snowfall of the
season for a number of areas, especially ones with just a little
bit of elevation.

The upper level trough moves through Southcentral and into the
Copper River Basin Thursday. This could bring in some snow showers
to the Copper Basin with it, but it is looking doubtful that
enough moisture will make it across the mountains to do much.

The next system is a very strong one that will move quickly
through the Bering Sea and send a strong front into the
southwestern Gulf Thursday night and the rest of the Gulf through
Friday. This will hit Kodiak especially hard with strong winds
and heavy rain on Friday. There is the possibility for Hurricane
Force winds along the north Gulf coast depending on the strength
of the barrier jet that sets up with this front on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Today Through Saturday morning)...

A weak frontal system continues pushing inland of the Kuskokwim
Delta and Bristol Bay this morning. The greatest moisture
associated with this system is over the Kuskokwim Delta this
morning where interior places like Bethel look to see their first
snow flakes of the season this morning. Little to no accumulation
is expected. Farther south, moisture and lift are weaker across
Bristol Bay, although places like Togiak and Dillingham could
still see a few flurries this morning. As temperatures warm
through the day, any precipitation should turn to rain by late
morning.

This system will fizzle out over the southwestern mainland
through the afternoon and evening. Our attention then turns to the
west where a low pressure looks to enter and strengthen in the
western Bering Sea today. The western Aleutians will feel the
first signs of the system this morning with light rain moving in.
As the day goes on, winds look to pick up to 34 to 45 mph and seas
look to build to around 15 ft. The storm will continue to move
eastward to just southwest of the Pribilof Islands by Thursday as
it deepens. The main core of strong winds will continue to be to
west on the backside of the storm as cold air wraps into it from
Russia. Another aiding factor in the strong winds is an amplifying
ridge building over Kamchatka which helps to enhance the northerly
cold air advection from Russia. Sustained winds across the western
and central Aleutians look to be in the strong gale-force
category, while marine zones around those areas could experience
sustained storm-force winds.

The system then looks to moves southeastward to near the eastern
Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) by Thursday
evening. Energy will then transfer from the Bering Sea over the
AKPEN into the North Pacific as triple point occurs Thursday night
and early Friday morning. The storm then looks to meander around
the southern AKPEN through Friday while continuing to strengthen.
A reinforcing shot of cold air looks to once again drop southward
out of Russia and into the western and central Bering for Friday.
With the amplified ridge remaining across Kamchatka and the strong
low just south the AKPEN, the dynamics are favorable for a long
duration wind event, similar to the October 3rd-4th strong low,
over the eastern Aleutians, and perhaps the southern AKPEN.
Synoptic winds also look to be strong through Kamishak Gap and
into Bristol Friday into Saturday. In general, wind gusts from 50
to 75 mph area possible for Bristol Bay, the southern AKPEN, and
the eastern Aleutians Friday. The system drops further south into
the North Pacific for Saturday as strong gusty winds persist
across the eastern Aleutians due to the persistent amplified
Kamchatka ridge and good cold air advection from Russia and the
Arctic.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

A large storm-force low centered south of the Alaska Peninsula on
Saturday will dominate the weather pattern across southern Alaska
through next week. The large low will have a broad wind field,
with a storm force front (and potential hurricane-force gusts)
lifting across the north Gulf coast on Saturday while cold,
Arctic air streaming south across the Bering Sea leads to a large
area of gale and storm force winds blowing across the Pribilofs,
central and eastern Aleutians, and Alaska Peninsula. While the
front in the Gulf lifts quickly north and weakens rapidly as it
pushes inland over Southcentral Alaska, gusty winds in the Bering
Sea will diminish much more slowly as Arctic air continues to
surge southward through Monday. High seas can be anticipated in
association with this low, likely up to 25 feet particularly in
the area between the Pribilof Islands and the eastern Aleutians
for much of the day Saturday and along the front in the Gulf
Saturday morning before it moves inland.

A band of precipitation also lifts across southern mainland
Alaska on Saturday along with the front, primarily falling as rain
as the low draws warm, moist air up from the subtropical Pacific.
The heaviest rain falls along the coastline, focusing along the
eastern Kenai Peninsula, especially on Saturday. After the front
lifts into the Interior, precipitation will mainly focus along the
coast of the Gulf of Alaska and the north side of the Alaska
Peninsula and eastern Aleutians in the form of upslope shower
activity. Arctic air streaming southward will contribute to
unstable conditions that also produce bands of showers across the
eastern Bering Sea through Monday.

Along the far western portions of the domain, the extratropical
remnants of what is currently Tropical Depression 21W in the
western Pacific have the potential to bring gale force winds
through the western Aleutians beginning Sunday. This low tracks
south of the Aleutians, bringing a band of light to moderate rain
as far as the eastern Aleutians by Tuesday, though winds likely
weaken below gale force east of Kiska. This low has some
potential (low, <30% chance) to strengthen as it tracks toward
the Gulf of Alaska later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions persist with 10 to 15 kt winds during the
day. Ceilings may descend into the MVFR range Wednesday night to
Thursday morning as chances increase for periods of light rain and
snow.

&&