Gale Warning 857, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
440 PM AKST Wed Nov 27 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3)...

The Thanksgiving forecast remains unchanged through the end of
the week. As has been advertised the past few days, a cool down is
underway as northerly flow aloft allows for colder temperatures
to filter into Southcentral. The areas that experience clearer
skies and milder winds will be the coolest, which will promote a
dry yet chilly Thanksgiving for many. Right now the Copper River
Basin will see the coldest temperatures, especially along the
Richardson Highway from Paxson into McCarthy, with morning lows
ranging from 15 to 25 below zero Thursday and Friday morning. With
the arrival of the cooler temperatures, gusty conditions have
already developed through Thompson Pass with winds up to 50 mph.
Some of these winds will make their way into Valdez through
Thursday night. Latest observations show gusts up to 30 mph moving
into Valdez proper and the gusts will likely increase to as high
as 60 mph when winds peak late Thursday morning/afternoon.

Shifting west, conditions from the MatSu down into the Kenai
Peninsula will also be cooler with widespread single digit
temperatures likely. Again, the coolest locations will depend
entirely on cloud cover and wind. Areas that experience clear
skies could easily drop below zero, but current thinking is for
some cloud cover to linger across the Knik Arm and Anchorage Bowl
through early tomorrow morning. Thus Anchorage and Palmer may very
well end up on the warmer side. Skwentna and Willow will
represent the cold spots for the Susitna Valley, both nearing -10
degrees.

Finally, a Mat-Valley wind remains forecast to develop tonight
and linger through Thursday night. Northeast winds on the order of
15 to 25 mph could gust to as high as 35 to 40 mph from Sutton
into Wasilla. Which will also serve to limit the extent of
overnight lows. All in all we're not anticipating any extreme
weather, but it will be a cool Thanksgiving. Remember to wear
layers and limit outdoor activities without proper attire and
supplies.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Southwest Alaska will remain dry through Saturday with north to
northeasterly flow persisting and maintaining the cold airmass in
place. Gusty winds through Friday morning will promote wind chills
into the -20s, approaching -30 across the lower Kuskokwim Valley.
The offshore flow will generate areas of Heavy Freezing spray
along the Southwest coast.

A break in the wind and rain for the Aleutians this evening and
tonight will be brief as the next system and its front approaches
by early Thursday morning. There is good model agreement that the
center of the low will remain well south of the Aleutians, with
the edge of the associated front clipping the Central/Eastern
Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula. Light to moderate
rainfall and easterly gale force winds are expected for the
aforementioned areas Thursday morning into Friday, with storm
force gusts possible for the Eastern Aleutians on Thursday. Some
of the strong winds spilling over the Aleutians into the southern
Bering and gusty offshore flow out of Bristol Bay could make it as
far north as the Pribilof Islands on Thursday but quickly relax
Thursday night. The most persistent core of gale force winds will
linger along the southern Alaska Peninsula through early Saturday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

The Alaska Weather map holds onto the cold and dry air over most
of the Mainland through the forecast period. The upper air pattern
shows a slowly weakening ridge across the Arctic coast, slipping
back into Eastern Russia by Wednesday. This ridge aids cold air
seeping into the Bering through Wednesday, with gusty winds less
than gale force expected. A second ridge is staying in place
across portions of the Eastern Interior and Southeast Alaska. A
closed low exiting the Kuskokwim Delta is on its way over the
Central Aleutians by Monday. This low weakens against the Russian
ridge extending across the Western Aleutians and curves into the
North Pacific for midweek. On the surface, weak lows move along a
front from just South of the Alaska Peninsula across the Gulf of
Alaska through Wednesday. Lower clouds and snowfall push onshore
over the AKPEN and Southcentral coasts. Gusty winds less than gale
force will occur across the Northern Gulf Sunday, diminishing.
The snow will spread into the Central and Eastern Bering, becoming
a mix of rain and snow across the Central Aleutians for Tuesday
and Wednesday. Snow changing to Rain pushes over Kodiak Island
Sunday, and stretches along the Southcentral coast through
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Areas of low clouds will likely linger through tonight near
the mountains. However, with light northerly flow, skies should
remain clear at the terminal. Multiple short-waves will dig
southward across Southcentral tonight through Thursday, leading
to strengthening low level winds, which should erode any remaining
low clouds in the area. There is a chance for some gust northerly
winds at the terminal Thursday afternoon and evening as winds
coming out of the Mat Valley strengthen, but it doesn't look like
those winds will make all the way down to the terminal. Thus,
largely expect winds to remain 10 kts or less to prevail.

&&