Gale Warning 8, NWS Anchorage, AK

202 
FZAK61 PAFC 091212
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
312 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2024

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-100145-
312 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

Weak low pressure lingers across the Gulf through Wed morning.
High pressure moves into the southern Gulf this afternoon. 

$$

PKZ351-100145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
312 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2024

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ352-100145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
312 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2024

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
521 AM AKST Mon Jan 8 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday)...

Widespread snow has come to an end across the Southcentral coast
and Cook Inlet this morning as the surface low and upper-level
wave both move into the Copper River Basin. There is some residual
shower activity along the western shores of Cook Inlet, but these
should also diminish through the morning hours and stay west of
Kenai, Anchorage, and Palmer as the flow aloft remains southerly.

Patchy fog is also developing this morning just north of
Anchorage; however, another round of clouds moving over the area
will likely keep fog from becoming widespread. The southerly flow
diminishes later today, then shifts to the north as both a ridge
of high pressure develops over the interior and a surface low
lifts north into the Gulf of Alaska. The gradient between the two
will allow for development of northerly gap winds along the
Southcentral coast by Tuesday morning. These winds will peak
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning, with gusts to 40 mph
possible for Seward and Valdez and up to 50 mph for Whittier.

The aforementioned low in the Gulf will swing a weak front ahead
of it, allowing for some isolated to scattered snow showers to
develop over the Kenai Peninsula late Monday into early Tuesday
morning. Given the colder and drier air working in from the north,
the best chance for any show showers will likely remain mainly
over the Chugach and Kenai Mountains.

The main challenge in the short term will be fog development over
Cook Inlet. There is plenty of lingering low level moisture from
the recent snow event, with winds near the surface will be light
and variable. Any fog lingering along the inlet today may expand
across the inlet and Knik Arm late tonight through Tuesday
morning, especially if clouds diminish and there is additional
radiational cooling overnight Monday.

-TM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Thursday)...

Key Points:

* A North Pacific low moving into the Bering Sea tonight could
  bring another round of blowing snow (visibility as low as 1/2
  mile) for Nunivak Island/Kuskokwim Delta coast, with a lower
  chance for the Pribilof Islands and Western Capes of Bristol
  Bay.

* A warm and wet Kona low moving towards Southwest Alaska on
  Wednesday could bring heavy snow across the region through
  Thursday, though incoming warm air could transition
  precipitation to rain or even freezing rain.

* Generally windy conditions for the Bering Sea and Aleutians,
  with snow and rain along the front transitioning to snow showers
  through Tuesday.

Much of the area is enjoying improved conditions as we remain
between storm systems. Our most recent weather-maker is slowly
departing towards the Gulf of Anadyr in Russia, while our next low
won't be arriving until later tonight. Satellite imagery shows a
broad area of convective clouds over the Bering Sea and Aleutian
Islands, where cold air moving over warmer ocean waters is
producing snow showers. Snow showers moving over Saint Paul
earlier tonight led to visibility as low as one-half mile in
blowing snow. However, diminishing winds should keep visibility
fairly high for the remainder of the day. For Southwest Alaska,
clouds dominate as a shortwave trough moving through the region
brings light snow. Skies should become clearer overnight as a
shortwave ridge moves through in advance of the incoming low.

More active weather returns as a North Pacific low begins moving
into the area later tonight. Overall, the track of the low has
shifted a bit further west and its speed has slowed compared to
the previous forecast package. Model agreement is a bit worse than
average for this system, leading to lower confidence in potential
hazards. Still, precipitation is expected to start as snow, and
elevated winds associated with this system could lead to
significant visibility reductions in blowing snow. Confidence is
highest for Nunivak Island and the Kuskokwim Delta coast, where
temperatures should remain low enough for snow to blow about.
Should this occur, the worst conditions would be expected from
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Confidence is lower for the
Pribilof Islands as temperatures warm towards freezing by the
time winds start to accelerate; worst conditions are expected from
late morning/early afternoon on Tuesday. As for Bristol Bay,
there is some uncertainty with whether the decaying front can
maintain strong winds and precipitation as it moves over the
Western Capes.

As if that wasn't enough, the increasingly amplified upper level
pattern will bring in a warm and moist low from the tropics. The
moisture transport associated with this Kona low will serve to
reinforce precipitation across Southwest Alaska, creating the
potential for heavy snow in the Kuskokwim Delta. Heavy snow could
also be a concern for Bristol Bay, but there is a chance for warm
air to produce rain or freezing rain as temperatures warm aloft.
Overall, expect impactful weather for Southwest Alaska to linger
through midweek.

-KC

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

The main long-term weather feature will be an upper level ridge
over Southwest Alaska that builds through Thursday afternoon.
This will maintain the general storm track over the western Bering
through Friday, when an upper level trough from a Bering low
sweeps northward across Southcentral. There are early indications
that a second low from the north Pacific will quickly cross the
Aleutian Chain and merge with the Bering low. This new system
forms an upper level trough which slides over Southcentral on
Saturday. Lower level features of the two lows appear to merge and
slowly track north along the western coast, while an extended
moisture fetch trailing the north Pacific low continues into
Southcentral and the northern Gulf late Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions today. There may be brief
periods of time this morning when ceilings drop below 5000' or to
MVFR. Winds should remain like and will continue out of the south
through this morning and begin to flip back around to northerly
this afternoon. There is likely to be some fog development late
tonight into tomorrow morning.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1021 AM AKST Mon Jan 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 AM     Snow             Amber lake              62.14N 150.56W
01/08/2024  M2.4 inch        Matanuska-Susitna  AK   Cocorahs

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1024 AM AKST Mon Jan 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1023 AM     Snow             Sterling                60.49N 150.78W
01/08/2024  M2.3 inch        Kenai Peninsula    AK   Cocorahs

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1026 AM AKST Mon Jan 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     Snow             South Fork Eagle River  61.23N 149.44W
01/08/2024  M5.4 inch        Anchorage          AK   NWS Employee

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1027 AM AKST Mon Jan 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1024 AM     Snow             Clam Gulch              60.18N 151.42W
01/08/2024  E6.0 inch        Kenai Peninsula    AK   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1029 AM AKST Mon Jan 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 AM     Snow             Muldoon                 61.21N 149.76W
01/08/2024  M4.8 inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1137 AM AKST Mon Jan 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     Snow             NW Palmer               61.64N 149.24W
01/08/2024  M5.0 inch        Matanuska-Susitna  AK   Public

&&