Gale Warning 799, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
413 AM AKST Wed Nov 6 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A large, vertically stacked low is currently over Kuskokwim Bay,
putting Southcentral in a regime of broad southerly flow. Breezy
south to southeasterly winds and above normal temperatures will
persist through today as the low weakens in place. The next system
of focus can be seen in the north Pacific, and will move south of
Kodiak Island tonight. Its front will bring another round of gusty
winds and rain to Kodiak and the eastern Kenai Peninsula starting
this afternoon and continuing through early Thursday. This will
also reorient the wind field for Southcentral, returning a
northerly flow and chances of returning temperatures back to below
freezing briefly early Thursday. The farther north into the
Interior the more likely this will be, but winds may keep
temperatures just above freezing from the southern Mat-Su south
into Cook Inlet. Precipitation along the front will be stratiform,
but expect more numerous showers (similar to today) along the
coast Friday and Saturday. Dry conditions are expected inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

The low over Southwest Alaska will continue to weaken through the
end of the week and conditions across Southwest, Aleutians, and
Bering Sea will gradually wind down. Light rain showers are
expected along the coast, with snow or a rain/snow mix further
inland, will linger through today across Southwest. Precipitation
will taper off through tonight into Thursday morning. Rain along
the southern Alaska Peninsula will persist through Thursday
afternoon. Colder upper-level air drops down across the Bering as
the low departs, turning any remaining precipitation in the
Bering to all snow by Friday. A third low tracks eastward on the
Pacific side of the Aleutian Chain, bringing more wind and
precipitation for Southern Bering and Alaska Peninsula into the
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

On Saturday, a weakening low sitting east of Kodiak will bring
light to moderate rainfall to the Gulf Coast and northern Kodiak
Island before being absorbed by a strong low pressure system
traversing the Northern Pacific further to the south. Inland
locations for most of Southern Alaska should remain mostly dry
with light winds. On the backside of this stronger system,
northerly gale-force gap winds through bays and passes along the
Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) are likely.

As the low continues to move eastward on Sunday, so will the
location of the winds, with Kamishak Gap and other passes along
the AKPEN funneling the strongest gale-force winds from the
northwest. Another low enters the picture on Monday, passing
through the North Pacific, south of the Aleutian Islands. There is
some disagreement between models, but this system looks to take a
similar track as the one before it, traversing the southern Gulf
and bringing north to northwest winds to the Aleutians and AKPEN
and moderate precip to coastal locations across southern Alaska.
Some guidance is hinting at a cold air mass dropping down over the
Bering on Monday and into Tuesday. Until then, mild temperatures
will persist across the region.

&&.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist. Gusty southeasterly
winds will maintain through Wednesday afternoon, with the
strongest gusts in the 25 kt to 35 kt range possible during the
early morning hours before weakening throughout the day today.
Winds will begin to pick up out of the north tonight as a new low
pressure system approaches from the south. There will be some
potential for marginal LLWS to develop at the terminal late
tonight as southeasterly flow strengthens aloft.

&&