Gale Warning 643, NWS Anchorage, AK

240 
FZAK52 PAFC 011230
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-020145-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Weak low pressure extends across the Bering through tonight. A 994
mb Kamchatka low drops to 165 nm west of Saint Matthew Island 
early Wed morning and dissipates Wed night. Its front enters the 
western Bering this afternoon. A second Kamchatka low at 975 mb 
pushes a front across the western Bering and Aleutians for Wed 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ750-020145-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ751-020145-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ752-020145-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ753-020145-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ754-020145-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ755-020145-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ756-020145-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ757-020145-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ758-020145-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ759-020145-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ770-020145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI...W wind 50 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ772-020145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.FRI...W wind 50 kt. Seas 36 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ771-020145-
Unalaska Bay-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ773-020145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...W wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ774-020145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 55 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ775-020145-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 55 kt. Seas 37 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ776-020145-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 55 kt. Seas 40 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ777-020145-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 55 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ778-020145-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 55 kt. Seas 34 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ780-020145-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 55 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.FRI...W wind 50 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ781-020145-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 60 kt. Seas 37 ft.
.FRI...W wind 55 kt. Seas 37 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ782-020145-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 55 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...W wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ783-020145-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ784-020145-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 60 kt. Seas 36 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ785-020145-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ786-020145-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 60 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ787-020145-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...W wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ766-020145-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ760-020145-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ761-020145-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ762-020145-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable
less than 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. Patchy fog.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ763-020145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ764-020145-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ765-020145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ767-020145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
430 AM AKDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...N wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
518 AM AKDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The primary weather concern in the near term remains focused on the
low moving out of the North Pacific and into the GUlf today. This
system is expected to rapidly deepen today as it lifts into the
southern Gulf with storm to hurricane force off-shore winds
developing by this afternoon and building seas of 25 to 35 ft.
Models continue show a 950 to 960 mb low pressure minimum developing
by this afternoon to early evening, and remaining quite strong as it
tracks to the east overnight. Models have once again shifted the
track slightly east in the last few runs, placing the stronger winds
east of Kodiak Island; however, the north and eastern side of the
island may still see a period of 30 to 40 mph sustained winds with
gusts reaching 40 to 50 mph. The system will translate pretty
quickly eastwards over the next 24 hrs resulting in winds
generally decreasing from west to east through late morning Tuesday.

North to south gap flow winds will also develop today as a system
over northwestern Canada pushing southward and the deep Gulf low to
the south, with high pressure sandwiched between, help to steepen
the gradient along the coastal mountains. With river levels low and
no snow cover yet in the river valleys, will likely see some dust
get lofted resulting in hazy conditions along the Knik Arm/Mat
Valley and the Copper River Delta.

For inland areas of Southcentral... Drier air pushing southwards and
offshore flow will keep the area dry under mostly sunny skies. Clear
skies overnight will allow for good radiational cooling and combined
with the lower dewpoints, will see some quite a few inland locations
drop to freezing to lower for the next few nights. The one caveat
will be for locations that maintain breezy conditions overnight
helping to keep the boundary layer mixed and those lower
temperatures at bay.

- PP

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Wednesday night)...

Upper-level troughing is once again elongating over the eastern
Bering Sea this morning. The front which has been nearly
stationary, producing a thin band of rainfall over portions of
Southwest Alaska for the past several days has begun to push back
westward as a result of the growing influence of an intensifying
low moving into the southern Gulf of Alaska. Though this front is
weakening, numerous to widespread rain showers continue along much
of its length and are forecast to move through interior Bristol
Bay this morning before reaching Dillingham and the Ahklun
Mountains by early afternoon. After that point, the front quickly
falls apart and precipitation ceases. Elsewhere across Southwest
Alaska, the Alaska Peninsula, and the eastern Bering, cyclonic
flow aloft and a weakening surface low will promote isolated rain
showers. Tonight, a ridge moves in over Southwest Alaska as
cooler, drier air moves in from the Interior, leading to dry
conditions through Wednesday night. Clearing skies, however, will
promote radiational cooling at night and lead to potential for fog
development, especially in the Kuskokwim Delta Monday night,
potentially spreading to more areas along the Southwest coast for
Tuesday night. Additionally, expect an overall cooling temperature
trend, with low temperatures approaching 30 in the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley for mid-week.

Over the western Bering, a broad low has begun to push a front
through the western Aleutians this morning. Southerly gale force
winds and light rain will push eastward along the Chain today,
reaching the eastern Aleutians tonight. The low weakens below
gale- force as it pushes across the Alaska Peninsula and into the
North Pacific on Tuesday. A second, weaker low tracks across the
northern Bering Tuesday and Tuesday night, bringing westerly winds
below gale force across much of the western and central Bering.

The next feature of note is a strong low, likely storm force, but
with the potential for hurricane force winds over the far western
Bering, will begin to enter the region Wednesday night. Strong
winds and high seas can be expected to make for unsettled
conditions across the Bering through the latter half of the week.

Quesada

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

The focus of the long-term forecast will be on a strong fall storm
that moves from the Kamchatka Peninsula towards the Eastern
Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula for the latter half of this week.
There is growing confidence that sustained winds will reach storm
force (55-73 mph), with gusts to hurricane force (> 73 mph)
possible. Potential impacts include high winds and coastal
flooding, though this will depend on the orientation of the winds
with regards to the shoreline. The worst conditions are expected
for Southwest Alaska, the Bering Sea, and Aleutian Islands from
Thursday through Friday, with generally improving conditions this
weekend as the low weakens.

Diving into the details...the first threat to watch for with this
storm system will be the low's warm front, which will sweep
across the Pribilof Islands and into Southwest Alaska through
Thursday. The outlook could change, but recent model runs are
consistent in showing gale force (39-54 mph) south to
southeasterly winds as the front moves into Southwest Alaska. This
raises concerns that south-facing shorelines along Kuskokwim and
Bristol Bays could see a storm surge and potential high surf or
even coastal flooding. Winds look to be strongest along the
coastline, but interior parts of Southwest Alaska will likely
also see gusty winds.

From Thursday through Friday morning, cold air begins surging in
behind the low as it deepens to peak strength. The impacts from
this cold front will be much more sensitive to the position of the
low. Models seem to have shifted the track of this low further
west since yesterday, with the low expected to remain from about
Saint Matthew Island west. What this means is that the strongest,
storm force winds associated with this cold front are less likely
to reach the Kuskokwim Delta. Still, these winds could still pack
a punch, especially across the Western and Central Bering and
potentially as far east as the Pribilof Islands. While the current
low track looks to spare the Western and Central Aleutians of the
worst of the winds, expect sustained winds to gale force for these
areas.

While the worst of this storm will remain along the Bering Sea and
Southwest Alaska, Southcentral Alaska can still expect to see
some of its influence as the weakening warm front transits across
the Gulf through Friday. Expect sustained winds up to gale force,
with southeasterly, upslope flow favoring the highest rain amounts
along the coastline. In addition, the strength of the low could
lead to a tightening of surface pressure gradients and the
enhancement of winds through southeasterly terrain gaps like
Turnagain Arm, Knik Arm, and Copper River. However, the extent to
which the winds will be affected is somewhat uncertain as the low
center will remain quite distant from Southcentral.

Overall, this storm system will bear close watching. Please
monitor the forecast and stay tuned for updates.

-Chen

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. With a stronger incoming low
into the southeastern Gulf, there will be a tighter pressure
gradient developing that is expected to result in elevated winds
out of the north. Sustained winds will likely remain below 12 kts
with gusts to 20 kts.

&&