Gale Warning 623, NWS Anchorage, AK

069 
FZAK52 PAFC 182328
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-191230-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A broad 1001 mb low near Prince William Sound weakens and exits
eastward through Thu morning. A 1003 mb North Pacific low moves 
to 230 nm south of Cold Bay for Thu afternoon, then exits into 
the Gulf at 1004 mb by Fri afternoon. A 992 mb Kamchatka low 
pushes its front into the Western Bering through Thu night. A 990 
mb low merges with the front 220 nm south of Shemya Thu night, 
then moves near Adak at 995 mb for Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ750-191230-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ751-191230-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ752-191230-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ753-191230-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ754-191230-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ755-191230-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ756-191230-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ757-191230-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ758-191230-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ759-191230-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ770-191230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ772-191230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ771-191230-
Unalaska Bay-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ773-191230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ774-191230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ775-191230-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ776-191230-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ777-191230-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ778-191230-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ780-191230-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ781-191230-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ782-191230-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ783-191230-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ784-191230-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ785-191230-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ786-191230-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ787-191230-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ766-191230-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ760-191230-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...N wind 10 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ761-191230-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ762-191230-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ763-191230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ764-191230-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...N wind 10 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ765-191230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ767-191230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
328 PM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... S
15 kt W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
550 AM AKDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Friday)...

The strong low that tracked across the Bering Sea has crossed
into southern Cook Inlet early this morning. While not as strong
as it was earlier, it still is packing a punch with areas of heavy
rainfall and strong winds around it. This occluded low was
triple-wrapped by its front last evening as seen on satellite
imagery and these multiple waves will bring the periods of
enhanced rainfall today. There is a bit of cold air aloft
associated with this low center which is bringing in unstable air
with it. This instability kicked off a number of thunderstorms in
southwest Alaska yesterday, but it is marginal whether there will
be an isolated thunderstorm or two in Southcentral today as this
low passes through. Most likely areas will be right under the
upper low center as it tracks across southern Cook Inlet through
Prince William Sound. This low is continuing to move rather
quickly so it should move past the AlCan border this evening then
most of the precipitation should subside for Southcentral. However
there should be some stiff north to west winds behind the low
which will be strongest near the coast from Kodiak to Whittier.
One of the big questions will be whether these winds will be
enough to keep the lower atmosphere mixed enough after the
rainfall, or if all that moisture will result in widespread fog
tonight into Thursday.

The 12Z sounding this morning for Anchorage showed the freezing
level down to 4166 ft. Therefore expect the dusting of snow along
the higher peaks of the Chugach front range to hove turned into a
solid line of snow or elevations above 4000 ft when the some brief
breaks in the clouds develop late today and into tonight for
Anchorage and the Mat-Su.

In general, Thursday should see some breaks in the clouds for much
of SOuthcentral,with areas farther south such as Kodiak and Homer
seeing a good bit of sunshine. While there should be some sunny
breaks tomorrow for most o Southcentral, the wrench in it all is
that the longwave upper level trough really does not go
away. Another upper level short wave looks to dig into the
Susitna Valley Thursday night and stall over the Talkeetna
Mountains for Friday. This might result in the Copper River Basin
and Prince William Sound seeing some rain on Friday as a result of
this trough. With the cold air aloft, it is possible for some of
the mountain passes, mainly near Eureka and Paxson, to see snow
get close to the highway on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Winds are continuing to gradually decrease as it shifts
northwesterly across Southwest Alaska and the eastern Bering Sea
this morning. Lingering showers will remain possible across
Southwest Alaska for today with likely chances near mountains and
the through the Kuskokwim Valley. Cooler air is expected to linger
through the rest of this week with widespread low temperatures
across Southwest Alaska hovering near freezing.

A ridge currently over the western Bering Sea will build toward
Southwest Alaska tonight. This should help to decrease chances for
precipitation for Thursday. Current satellite imagery under the
ridge indicates widespread low stratus across the Bering Sea and
most recent surface observations at Atka indicate that patchy fog
is developing as well. Looking ahead, there is low confidence for
how much extent this fog will develop across the Aleutians and the
Bering Sea. With light onshore flow and pressure building, it is
possible that the Kuskokwim Delta and Bethel could have patchy fog
for Thursday morning. While weak subsidence is likely for
Southwest Alaska, there is a low potential for embedded shortwaves
to bring brief periods of precipitation (rain, snow, or a mix) to
Southwest Alaska Friday and this weekend. This should be very
minor and not widespread.

Farther west, a front accompanying a Kamchatka low is expected to
move into the western Aleutians this afternoon. The ridge will
help slow the fronts progression, keeping rain chances likely for
the western Aleutians. This feature is expect to interact with a
North Pacific low approaching the western Aleutians and could be
the vehicle to help spread precipitation east and a track for
additional troughs. With a strong ridge in place, the trough is
expected to be somewhat deflected to the east and track light
showery activity along the Aleutians to the Alaska Peninsula
through Friday. Meanwhile, as the Kamchatka low lingers, another
low will quickly follow into the western Aleutians for Thursday
night, though model agreement begins to fall apart for the low
trajectory and how it interacts with other synoptic features for
Friday and this weekend. Models hint at continued troughing for
the Aleutians, while high pressure sits in the northern Bering
Sea.

rux

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Latest operational models show little agreement by Friday, so
will lean more on the ensemble means for the long term forecast. A
broad upper low positioned over the Western Aleutians looks to
slide eastward into the western Gulf by Tuesday. Upper-level jet
support should remain on the south side of the low with the
strongest winds at the surface to remain largely south of the
Aleutians. This looks to promote a quieter period of weather for
both the Bering, Southwest Alaska, and Southcentral Alaska through
the weekend. Instead, drier and cooler conditions are forecast
and lowering snow levels as a cooler airmass slowly makes its way
from interior Alaska into Southwest Alaska by Tuesday. As the low
becomes anchored over the western Gulf early next week, some
potential will exist for the return of shower chances for
Southcentral as easterly waves may bring scattered showers to the
Copper River Basin, Prince William Sound, and Gulf coastal
regions.

-BL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...MVFR to IFR ceilings and light rain are expected through
Wednesday afternoon, then VFR conditions return Wednesday night
into Thursday. There is a chance for some fog Wednesday night if
the winds become light and clouds clear out significantly.

&&